Monday, 14 March 2011

Wrong Side of the Bed

Don't you just hate it when you paper-trade a new strategy and it would have made far more money than the strategy you traded with real money?! That's what happened to me today. As you can see, a 4th day of profit in a row but should have been more.

I don't know what was wrong with me today. Maybe it was the fact I'd missed yesterday, or maybe I just got out of bed the wrong side but I just wasn't in the mood for trading. Normally I'm pumped up and positive but I felt tired and anxious before I'd even started today. I started well enough but my mood didn't lift. Two hours passed and it felt like eight. I wanted to stop but considering I'd lost a full day yesterday, I struggled on. It didn't help that Wawrinka kept doing the opposite of what I needed him to do! I persevered into the 3rd set on his game with Davydenko but got no joy. In the end, I was so pissed off that I deliberately missed my exit point and lost £30 that I shouldn't have. I went into the Becker v Bellucci game and the same thing occurred. In total, I backed a player 4 times on serve and they were broken every single time! That has never happened to me before!

Now I could feel the anger that I thought I'd killed off for good, start to rear its ugly head. I knew that if I didn't switch off and take a rest, I was heading into self-destruct mode. The break really saved my bacon. I took time off and came back refreshed and in a mood more suitable for trading. Results improved but for some reason, I remained on edge. I couldn't get matched on several attempts during the Benneteau v Melzer game and if I had done, my profit would have tripled. I looked at what I could have won with my paper-trades and I felt flat.

Days like this occur every now and then. I actually followed my strategy fine apart from that one moment in the Wawrinka game, so can't be too angry at myself. But I started to get those horrible thoughts of whether I'm happy with my strategy or not and whether I should change to the new one already. I've often wondered whether my strategy suits my personality enough. It requires me to wait around patiently for long periods and never to make pre-match bets. This is totally against my own impatient traits. I'm someone who prefers to be doing something at all times, to be active and getting involved. On the flip-side, my system suits my own cautious nature. I prefer to weigh things up and be sure about anything before leaping in and taking big risks. And I really hate being involved but nervously waiting for things to turn my way. In my system, I normally only have a couple of minutes to be nervy and then I'm out of the trade. So I'm at a bit of a juxtaposition. I think it's important to have a strategy that suits who you are and I'm just not sure I'm 100% happy in that respect, even though I know it will produce results.

But then maybe I did get out of bed the wrong side and I should just get on with things. Hopefully, I'll feel back to normal tomorrow. Perhaps I'm just missing some WTA coverage - come on Eurosport, pull your fingers out!!


  1. I presume you do realise how much progress you are making, keep it up and I'll make you my role model!!!!!!.

    Good stuff, good to see there is light at the end of the tunnel.

  2. This is a stupid question from a Tennis ignoramus.

    Am currently trading Sharapova Vs Reazzi, and I feel there is an edge to be had in the fact that the womens serve away from the body (even numbered serve in each game) is a lot weaker than the one to the deuce side. This is especially prevalent with the weaker serves and more so in the Women's games. Am I mad or have you noticed the same ?

  3. Thanks for the encouragement, not sure I'll ever be a role model but you never know!

    I have absolutely no idea Guy! I've never once thought that deeply about tennis and to be honest, I think you don't need to go that far to make money. You are saying that when they serve to the left, they tend to lose more points? I suppose I could kind of understand that for a right-hander, it's easier to serve to the left because it's easier to swing the ball to the far side than it is on the deuce side. Going down the middle wouldn't be much difference though. You'll have to do some testing on that but I'd be very surprised if results were strong enough to base a system around it.

    As I say, there are much easier and widely known strategies around to begin from. Keep things simple, like all the best things in life!

  4. No, hang on! You are saying the serve is weaker to the LEFT? In that case, I would probably disagree because it is easier to swing the ball out to the left! That's just my opinion though!

  5. Nah, I didn't explain correctly, I meant to the right (for a right handed server). On the odd numbered points the server is serving across their body to their left hand side, they appear much stronger. For the even numbered points (0-15 for example) the server is serving away from their own body. I just noticed that they seem to lose a far higher percentage of serves "away" from the body,

  6. That would make sense. You'll need to try it out on a big sample but I'm sure if it was significantly higher, the odds would reflect that in the market and it would be a well known trading tactic. I've never looked into it though, so you never know.


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