Friday, 22 July 2011

Rest and Recouperation

Well this is it. I'm now officially down the well. I'm back in the Gambler's Cycle of endless chasing and needless errors and negative thoughts. I've struggled against it all week, thought I'd just about managed to steady the ship but today, it all just exploded. Yet another day of poor focus lead to me taking 5 large reds. I lost almost my entire stake on one of them. I just lost the plot today as my head wasn't in the right place. I now realise that this has gone way too far without me taking drastic enough action. I guess I thought if I stayed calm and grinded it out, things would eventually turn but I now think that I've been too complacent thinking that. I need to take more action cos waiting isn't working.

I imagine what is going through my head right now is similar to that of Aravane Rezai. No matter what she seems to do this year, she just cannot get back that form from last year. Every game seems to go the exact same way; signs of promise, massive hitting, some breathtaking winners but by the end of the game, it's all hidden amidst a blanket of unforced errors, double faults and non-existent tactics. I feel for her, I really do, we are so alike in our current situations. Well, except she is a millionaire and I'm penniless. I'm sure that's of some comfort for her after today's loss. And yes, she did cost me money.

I'm absolutely livid with myself that after all the shit I've been through in the past, I still don't appear to have learnt from it. Losing focus is one thing; that was a new experience as a tennis trader. But chasing losses, getting involved at risky stages, not using correct exit and entry points, taking my eye off the game - these are inexcusable. Once, I can tolerate, it happens every now and then. But the number of times I messed up today must have gone into double figures. Even when I fortuitously scraped back a large chunk of green, I went and lost it all on the very next game, trying for too much.

No, today was the day when I realised I need to do more to stop the rot. So that's it - I'm taking a complete break. No more trading for a whole week. And whilst I'm away from the ladders, I will not even think about them. I don't need to change the strategy, I just need to follow it! Hopefully, I'll come back recharged and refreshed. I need a clean slate and that means attempting to rid my mind of the emotional baggage of the last few weeks. I've decided to scrap all my old paper records, purge myself of all those bad results. My new goals will be to work harder at retaining focus, keeping away from distractions and eradicating any thoughts about previous trades. I'm not disciplined enough and have really let myself slip. I will be trying new techniques which I hope will enable me to eventually clear my mind from trade to trade, wiping out any negativity.

The good news this week is that I have been redding-up at the 25% mark when required. Apart from one slip-up today, I seem to be getting better at accepting I'm wrong. The only problem is, I've got it wrong far too many times this week! And that is purely down to impatience and lack of focus. It seems only a proper break is ever going to fix this malaise I'm in. When I return, I expect to be in a sharper frame of mind and with a fresh set of weapons to help me in this psychological battle otherwise known as sports trading..............see you in August!

Tuesday, 19 July 2011

Bye Bye Betunfair!

You'd better believe it! The boycott this week and exodus of many big players and fed-up punters alike appears to be paying off. Some said it couldn't happen but I've seen with my very own eyes the changes happening on The Daq. There was always a good chance that the Horse Racing markets would look significantly improved and from all the feedback I've read, it seems to be the case. But I was unsure whether the tennis markets would see such an upturn in liquidity. Certainly, the televised matches have seen a vast improvement and so I took the liberty of taking screen shots of the early morning match between Vesnina and Buchina at the small tournament in Baku:

As you can see, the amounts available at this point in the match (and throughout it to be honest) were FAR larger on Betdaq. And this was at the exact same time (during a Vesnina time-out) so it's an accurate representation. This is something I've never seen before. Now obviously, the amounts matched are much larger on Betunfair. I presume that's simply because there are not as many smaller players taking the money (feel free to put me straight if you know otherwise) but however you look at it, there can be no doubt that this game was perfectly tradeable for just about anyone. Check out the 11am game between Kremer and Makarova. This was in-play after about 15 mins:

I do know that in matches not available via stream that this situation was not the same but this is only early days. Things ARE changing and should continue to improve steadily. Shortly after I took those screenshots, Betunfair went down AGAIN in BOTH games, for the umpteenth time in recent days. This time, it caught me out and cost me money, just as it did earlier in the year. So if I needed any further reason to go, this was the final nail in the coffin. Sayonara, adios, ciao, bye bye Betunfair - I'm off to Betdaq. I will be moving half my bank over there as soon as I find a replacement for The Geek's Toy and will be playing as many matches as possible on purple, gradually moving my entire operation over as the liquidity and matches available improve. Which they surely will do now this company continues to implode. I urge everyone to get over there asap, at least check out what's available and see for yourself the changes. Join the revolution!

Monday, 18 July 2011

Crisis Point

I now have to admit that I've reached crisis point. I'm not quite down the well yet but I'm starting to spiral dangerously close to the edge. Since around the time the grass court season began, I've steadily been losing money. During this time, I have always stayed strong and believed that it was only a matter of time before things turned around. And each week, they always started to do so but I guess those full-stake losses just kept dragging me back. My lack of focus meant that I didn't even realise as I slowly hemorrhaged cash. Last week, I expected things to finally get better but I managed to lose ANOTHER 2 full stakes and for the first time since March, I started to do impatient and irrational trades. The losses weren't big but they mounted up - at one point I had 10 straight reds. Things picked up towards the end of the week but I then lost a second full-stake on the Del Bonis v Ferrero game, shattering 2 days of good work.

I don't think my focus is as big an issue anymore, I feel better in that respect but I have lost my way regarding my strategy. I have become impatient again and tried to force wins too often. I don't feel anywhere near as bad as last time though. I decided to read back through The Dark Ages in February and March and I think this will prove a great help. It is after-all, why I began this blog. I felt that recording those bad times would enable me to look back on them so I don't repeat the mistakes. So far, it is working because back then, I was a mental wreck. I was angry and uncontrolled, anxious and erratic. I flipped between strategies and didn't know what I was doing from one trade to the next. This time, although I've had the occasional thought about trying out a different strategy and the odd moment where my anger has boiled over, I have not changed anything. The reason is simply because I have that experience from The Dark Ages all there in black and white for me to read over at any time. If it wasn't there, I'm pretty sure it would have been forgotten, stashed away at the back of my memory along with all the other bad periods I've had.

So I know that I just need to keep calm and keep plugging away. The wins are still coming in regularly and I've started to take greens earlier, which is always a great idea when you can't quite get moving. I need to get involved less, wait for firm opportunities and not panic. The biggest issue still remains those full-stake losses. Again, without the two I had last week, I would have been in profit. These losses are always down to the same thing - frustration. I place an incorrect trade, usually by jumping in too early. When it goes wrong, I am now frustrated because I should not have placed that trade. So I jump in not long after, again trying to force things and when that goes wrong too, I'm now really angry and end up doing something irrational, like leaving the trade to run. Once that trade goes past my final exit point, I figure that I may as well risk the lot rather than take a 40, 50, 60% red. I should stress that this ONLY happens when I get frustrated at MYSELF for not following my strategy properly. Whenever I follow it and it doesn't work out, I ALWAYS red-up by the 25% mark. I never blame the players or the market, it's only ever my fault. The most agonising thing about both those losses last week, were that I was £25 green on BOTH of them at one point! All I had to do was stop.

So the key in turning this around is simple; follow the strategy 100%. To do that, I'll need to get all my old focus and discipline and patience back. I did it once this year, under far greater pressure. I have absolutely no doubt that I will do it again.

Wednesday, 13 July 2011

I'm Back, Baby!! (The Sequel)

From reading some of the messages I've received since my last post, I get the impression that maybe some of you might think I'm upset since reading my 3 month P&L. I just want to set the record straight; I am very happy about what I saw on my P&L! It basically showed that all I need to do is red up a few more times to stop losing my full stake and I will be exactly where I want to be. So yes, it's annoying that I had those 30 full-stake losses but we are only talking about 30 trades from a total of 600 and obviously, there are far more times where I did red-up properly. If I just sort out 5% of my trades, I will be laughing all the way to the bank!

Now of course, it was stupid of me not to pick up on this issue earlier. I do keep written records and analysis of all my trades but with the lack of focus I'd been having in recent weeks, I had neglected to properly inspect where any problems might be. In truth, I didn't think I needed to. My ROI is higher than it's ever been. My profit is better than it's ever been for any 3 month period. But it just wasn't quite as much as I'd hoped for and I couldn't quite work out why. I was winning more often and in greater amounts, so I wasn't sure why I wasn't hitting big profit. The full-stake losses just seemed to get swallowed up on the page and because I didn't go back through my records, I forgot about them. Now that I know why I haven't progressed as much as I'd hoped, I'm ecstatic! I just need to get my focus and energy back so that I don't make those mistakes and already, that is happening.

I mentioned I'd been having neck and back problems recently. They have now gone and I've been able to get back to my usual exercise routine, which I've sorely missed. I'm now feeling much more refreshed and physically, my energy levels have shot up. I also have started to cut out a few bad habits, such as messing about on the net and my set-up and professionalism is back to what it was a few months ago. I have a weekend away planned in a couple of weeks and I'm taking more breaks, in order to combat any burnt-out I'm suffering from. But most importantly, I know that the hard work I've put in is now so close to producing what I dreamed of. Just knowing that has put a spring back in my step and the glint back in my eye. There is very little that I need to change now, I just need to make sure I retain my focus and professionalism and I don't foresee any massive problems with rectifying the full-stake losses. There is only one way to prevent them and that is through discipline; controlling your emotions and instilling the habit. This is what I will be working on the most this week. Am I back? I'll let you know in a few days........

Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Three Month P&L Shocker

I decided to take the weekend off and have a long, hard look at where I am going with my trading. I could feel myself starting to slip off the tight-rope and do irrational things, so I took a break and had a bit of hypnotherapy to sort my head out. I also thought it might help to take a look at my 3 month p&l. I rarely bother looking at it, (in fact, I never look past 24 hours) as it's just one of those things that scares me! I always have a rough idea of the amounts I'm making, as I keep written records, I just don't tot them up. But every so often, I find it useful to see everything in full detail. So it was with a deep breath that I pulled up my p&l for the time since The Dark Ages. I was shocked at what I saw. But it wasn't my profit that shocked me (it confirmed that I was turning over a reasonable amount), it was the number of full-stake losses.

I have lost almost £3000 in full-stake losses ALONE in the past 3 months. I'm stunned at the size of this figure. I tried to put a positive spin on it though. Think of it this way; I'm in profit for those 3 months by a healthy margin. If I hadn't suffered those full-stake losses (in other words, if I had redded up when I was supposed to, at the 25% mark) I would have been in HUGE profit. Well, huge for me anyway! I also know for a fact from my paper records, that many of those losses were in strong green positions which I didn't take, before they became red. So if I'd taken those greens and those 25% reds, they would roughly have cancelled each other out, leaving me with an extra three grands worth of profit. And all of this on stakes of £100-£150 for the majority of the 3 months.

So this does prove one very important thing; I know how to consistenly make money. Imagine what that profit could be with double or triple the stakes. And if I have lost £3000 through full-stake losses, I am obviously turning over well in excess of £3000 in order to cover it and all of the small losses. These are not big wins either (95% were under £50), so I am consistently producing a lot of winning trades. And I have very few losing trades of between £50 and £100, which shows that for the most part, I do red up early on, it's just a small number that get through the net. So it's obvious what I need to do in order to reach the levels that I need to be successful; start redding-up more!

I guess because I wasn't looking at my monthly or even weekly p&l, I misjudged just how bad the situation was. I had a total of 30 trades where I lost the full amount I started the trade with. That works out as roughly 2 per week. So every week, I'm putting myself a couple of hundred pounds in the hole before I've even started! I guess the size of the losses gets lost somewhere on the page when written down.

I am hoping that this realisation will be the spur that I need to get that passion back. Now that I know that it's just a handful of large, losing trades that are preventing me from hitting all those heights I'd dreamed of, perhaps I can now really knuckle down with purpose. When you put in all the hours of graft that I have, only to see you are still taking small steps, it's no wonder that a bit of the spark becomes lost. But a new challenge has been set, something for me to really get my teeth into - banish those full-stake losses.

Sunday, 10 July 2011

Betunfair in Trouble

If anyone is still in any doubt that this premium charge can be beaten, then the latest developments shown on the Betfair Premium Charge Fiasco group should make you sit up and take notice. There is an article there by Calvin Ayre, discussing how Betunfair's share prices are continuing to drop alarmingly to a record low. It has now become clear that this is partly do with a lack of consumer confidence i.e. the backlash against the premium charge. It also now seems certain that Betunfair introduced this new charge now, in a desperate attempt to try and claw back the losses from their disastrous dabbling in the stock markets.

So let there be no doubt that if the guys who are due to pay this increased levy are to up and leave, it will frighten the life out of Betunfair, as they need the extra revenue. The Facebook page has now gone 'underground', with a group of big players now about to engage in talks with Betdaq. As I've written before, this is exactly what I feel needed to happen and it's great to see that the action being taken is really having an effect. It's certainly a smack in the face with a wet fish for all those negative dullards who said that nothing would happen! Next week should be very interesting, as meetings are due to take place, including with Betdaq and an open day from Smarkets, a new betting exchange.

If you've never heard of them, take a look at their Facebook page. From what I've heard from them so far, they seem very much like Betfair once were, 10 years ago and are keen to get input from any traders about how to build their exchange. Ok, they are just starting out and aren't a viable alternative to Betunfair yet but it just goes to show that if Betunfair don't get their act together, it will leave a gap in the market for a proper exchange and Smarkets could end up taking over in future. I'd change the name first though fellas - not sure about 'Smarkets' at all!

So it will be very interesting to see what happens in the run up to July 18th. Don't be fooled by the fact that nothing has appeared to have drastically changed when you open up your ladders each day. Behind the scenes, Betunfair is in the midst of a crisis and it could be about to get a whole lot worse if they don't reverse their position on the PC. The revolution continues!

Saturday, 9 July 2011

The Passion is Gone

Last night I did something which I haven't done since The Dark Ages back in March. It was born out of pure desperation after 2 days where I just couldn't get it together. No matter what I did, it seemed to go wrong and no matter how hard I tried, I just couldn't find that spark of passion and enthusiasm that I so badly needed. Instead of a patient game of chess, I continued to throw away my queen early on, swiftly followed by my toys out of the pram. In total I racked up 12 losses and just 2 wins over the course of Thursday and Friday - by far my worst run of form in over 3 months. But the worst of them came at 3am on Saturday morning.

For the first time since those awful anxiety ridden, early spring days, I put my full stake down pre-match and just went along for the ride. A straight bet on Andy Roddick to beat David Ferrer, playing Davis Cup in his home town of Austin on a fast indoor hard court. I felt it couldn't go wrong against the dirt-baller.......... The worst thing was that I was £50 in the green at one stage and normally would have traded out for that amount, no question. But this was a straight bet. I wanted to recoup all my losses for the day. So I looked on in horror as Roddick squandered 3 set points, the last of which was given to the American by the umpire but over-turned following Ferrer's Hawk Eye challenge. The game changed after that, as Ferrer totally dominated. I could've come out and taken a smaller loss but I was too stunned and too much of a wreck. 4am and staring down the barrel of a full stake loss and losing week - brings back hellish memories.

I knew that when I awoke today, I had some serious thinking to do. I am deeply shocked that I am still capable of doing what I did last night. I'd only had 2 bad days and I was still only just in the red for the week. But this runs deeper than mere profit. I have come to a realisation that the reason I have struggled to focus for so long now, is that I have lost my passion for trading tennis. I'm bored with it. Maybe I got complacent after a good spell and maybe I needed a new challenge to get me going, I don't know. But maybe this whole trading lark just isn't for me. Whatever it is, I know that if I can't get that passion and enthusiasm back, then I'm finished. It happened with the football, although I was never as good a trader with that as I am now. Being a consistent loser always helps when giving something up!

But now, I'm actually profitable! I was starting to go places. So I can only think that I'm just burnt out. I just can't find that drive or that energy. When I start trading, I zone out and my mind wanders and so I end up placing a trade when I shouldn't, just in order to get my mind on the game. Then I'm stuck digging my way out of a hole and I don't have the focus or patience to do it properly and so dig that hole even deeper. I managed ok on Tuesday but it took a masssive effort and the fog returned the very next day. Too many days trading, too many hours sat watching, too much time spent thinking about ladders. Maybe I need a break or a holiday, a change of scenery. Not really something I can afford to do though. I don't know where to go from here to be honest. I'm not a quitter but I am seriously considering making big changes. I just don't know what right now.

Thursday, 7 July 2011

A Game of Chess

Ever get the feeling that you seem to be going nowhere? That you are just treading water, breaking even, not quite forging onwards? I'm starting to get that feeling with my trading. In a way, this is a sign of improvement. The boom and bust days of earlier this year are consigned to the past. I'm now in a period of consolidation and steadiness and I am consistently profitable. But it's not quite become the all-singing, all-dancing march to financial freedom that I had expected to reach by now. I know that I was shouting from the rooftops about the return of my focus in my previous post but 48 hours can be a long time in the ladders business! Tuesday was another excellent day profit-wise but today was a disaster.

A different issue seems to crop up every couple of weeks; lack of patience, bad money management, anxiety, slack professionalism, lack of focus............and now, we have a new contender! Actually, it's more a re-surfacing of an old foe, perhaps the one single thing that has always dragged me down the most in life - impatience. I found myself jumping into games too early today, trying to force things too quickly. It's as though I can't be bothered to wait for a solid opportunity, I just want to be out of the trade as soon as possible. I believe that the crux of this impatience lies squarely with one over-riding factor - passion. Or rather, a lack of it.

When I first started trading, I had an intense hunger and desire to learn about tennis and to be successful making money from it. Through all the rocky patches, I almost always woke up each morning with that same enthusiasm. But recently, I have lost some of that passion. I have blogged in the past about how I became jaded with football, to the point where I no longer enjoyed watching it and therefore could not focus when trading it. I think that in recent weeks, I've begun to feel the same way about tennis. This was my worst fear. Without that passion, I am going to struggle to enjoy what I do and to be successful.

This week, my subconscious aim has been to wrap up each match in super-quick time and that means getting off to a fast, winning start. I wanted to get out of each match with minimum fuss and minimal thinking. It was almost as if trading was becoming an inconvenient necessity, a nasty chore that needed finishing in order to get on with the fun stuff. But this wasn't how it used to be, just as it wasn't when I first got into football gambling. I absolutely relished learning all about the different leagues of each nation and enjoying the different styles of soccer. It didn't matter if it was the Champions League final, a crazy Copa Libertadores 2am special or a 9am Indian I-league match in front of a hundred locals and a dog on the pitch, I loved the variety.

I had that with tennis; the different surfaces, the 'soap opera' of the players and the rankings, the feel that each tournament has from a tiny 250 in Tashkent to Wimbledon. But lately, that spark for learning has dissipated. I need to view trading as a challenge, as I did in the early days. I need to view each game as an individual puzzle; one that has to be cracked using knowledge, experience and PATIENCE. I must look at each tennis match like a game of chess. That's one of my favourite games and it requires great focus and patience but ultimately, it's a fun challenge. If I can apply the same ideas when I approach my trading, maybe I can improve. I need to wake up each morning and act as though trading is the centre of my world until the working day is done. Each match should be viewed as a mini-battle, a puzzle that I need to unlock in order to gain access to the flow of cash known as 'the markets'. It should be a slow and careful process; I shouldn't just be marching straight into the melee with my queen, getting captured and then exposing my king by recklessly sending my pawns all into battle.

For the most part, I need to bide my time; send out the knights to scope the place out, prime the bishops for a stealth attack and release the rooks from their cul-de-sacs. And when one of my pawns gets taken, I shouldn't start panicking and sending in the queen for immediate retribution. I just need to re-group and re-think my strategy. The puzzle intensifies and with it, so should my passion to work my way out of trouble. This is how I'm going to approach each day now, like a game of chess - passion, puzzles and patience. Hopefully, my trading will be less stale-mate and more check-mate.

Tuesday, 5 July 2011

I'm Back, Baby!!

Today I finally felt as though I'd got my mojo back. After weeks of struggling to find any consistent focus, the fog appears to have finally lifted. It's no coincidence that with it came my best profit for some time. It's always a bit of a come-down the week after a major tournament. Watching the likes of Remondina v Babos in Budapest is a bit like getting back to the Monday morning office grind after an exciting weekend away in London, especially when Agnes Szavay pulls out injured ;). But it's a huge relief that the grass court season is now over (bar that ATP event in Newport which has a strange aversion to doubles tramlines!) and we are back on the red-dirt.

I'd actually finished Wimbledon with some impressive results, making profit in all the semi-final and final matches. This helped alleviate a dreadful fortnight but the announcement of the new Betunfair premium charge did very little to aid my still faltering concentration. In fact, it was a good job that so few games were available to trade, as my focus was almost entirely directed towards that whole fiasco. It was only today when I finally snapped out of my fury and got down to sorting out my trading issues. Yesterday, I got away with a couple of poor trades which could have ended in almighty disaster and I think this helped snap me out of the haze of distraction that has encompassed me for a number of weeks now.

I put most of it down to complacency. I'd done so well over the past few weeks that I neglected many good habits that had gotten me to where I am. I realised that there were a few things I'd let slip that needed my attention. One of them was that I'd started messing around in-between games on the internet a lot more. This is an old habit that I thought I'd kicked ages ago but had crept back into my daily routine. This tied in with my general attitude towards trading as a business i.e. I had stopped treating it as one. I was acting as if I was part-time again. By that I mean that I was starting to fit my trading around other areas of my life, rather than vice-versa. As a full-time trader, you really have to always put your trading first. That means putting off any chores and outside interests until you've completed the days work.

The same goes for banishing distracting thoughts from my mind. For example, I'd been dreaming alot about a festival I have bought tickets for and planning for that event had often got in the way of my focus. I'd also been driven crazy by a neck injury and had allowed the discomfort to take over my thoughts when it really shouldn't have. I made it a rule to ban all activity that was not related to trading until the end of the trading day.

Lastly, my whole posture and immediate environment had become staid. I had become a slumped figure in my chair with my laptop burning into my thighs. I couldn't be bothered with the effort required to move it in order to get up and exercise, so would often sit in the same position for long periods, getting hot and irritable. I changed it so that I was sat higher up in the chair with a straighter back, with my body free to move around more and the laptop on a desk at a better angle. Such a simple adjustment but one which made me feel much more 'on it' - as if I was ready for serious work rather than playing a video game at midnight! I also spent more time stretching and exercising between points, rather than sat there staring at the players bouncing balls and pointing at towels. When it all was applied in conjunction, it resulted in me spotting better entry points and preparing properly for exit points - and when you break it down, that really is all that good trading requires. So as George Costanza might say - 'I'M BACK, BABY!!'

Sunday, 3 July 2011

Betdaq Revolution Update

Thought I would just highlight a comment by David Llada (one of the prominent guys on the Betfair Premium Charge Fiasco group) on a previous post:

By the way, a few of us, affected by this new PC, are going to book a meeting room in a hotel near Heathrow, to talk and discuss about future actions (strike, move to Betdaq...).

Dates to be confirmed. Those of you who want to join, just drop me a mail_ . Soon afterwards, 2 or 3 people (choosen at the meeting) will head to Dublin for a visit to Betdaq headquarters, with our requests and suggestions.

This is what I mean when I talk about being positive and pro-active, rather than just moaning and putting up with things. If you still think this premium charge doesn't affect you, think again. I re-iterate; anyone with aspirations of being successful by even a moderate amount in the long term, IS affected and it begins the very moment you start to make consistent profit.

Besides, it is not just the greed, it's the principle of the matter. We are being unfairly dictated to and having taxes imposed on us by a betting exchange; which is supposed to be there just to facilitate our betting activity, not take away our profit. They already get our commission. If they can change the rules any time they want, without warning, who is to say what they will do next? That is not treating ANY customer correctly. Check out this excellent satire of the whole debacle on Cassini's 'Green All Over' blog, if you need further evidence of how ridiculous this sham is:

Golf Shocker

My biggest worry about all of this right now is that there is no way to use The Geek's Toy on Betdaq. As the only serious free option for most traders, it is going to make it very hard for most of us smaller players to make the move. There may well be other free options available that could be considered, as I've heard there is no chance anytime soon of The Toy becoming available for The Daq. In fact, the more I think about this whole situation, the more I am convinced that it is the big players and those who pay the premium charge already who really need to be making the switch to Betdaq first. Once the big sums are taken out of the market and appear on The Purple Place, the rest of us can follow a bit more safely.

There is a split in the community about whether it's the big players or the small punters who are most needed at Betdaq. I can't answer that but I know one thing for sure; the many thousands of small players are either not earning enough now to care or simply don't have enough money to split their bank between exchanges, maybe buy some new trading software and / or take part in a strike that would much more seriously affect their income than it would someone who earns a high wage on Betunfair. Surely it's a lot easier to plan and extradite the smaller band of premium charge affected customers? Once that liquidity starts to fall at Betunfair and rise on Betdaq, the rest of us can then follow. Anyway, I've said enough on the matter for now. Let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

Friday, 1 July 2011

It's Time for the Revolution!

From the email I received back from IBM, it looks as though Slamtracker is well and truly gone. Still, if you don't try and get what you want, you will never succeed. And it is that attutude which I believe we should all be taking regarding the new Betunfair premium charge. So if you haven't already done so, please get onto the following Facebook page :

Betfair Fiasco Facebook Page

Discussion is already well underway and I believe that a Twitter group is being set up, as well as direct contact for a meeting with Betdaq. It is my firm belief that we can only succeed in this revolution with Betdaq's help. They need to be working with us and aiding us to get the message out there that Betunfair is no longer a proper Betting Exchange. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever for us all to be using Betunfair when there is a better alternative and so we only have ourselves to blame if we don't take action. We all need to be pro-active and not just dismiss this as it 'will never happen'. Well it won't ever happen if we all have that attitude. They probably thought that in Egypt 6 months ago and look what happened there!

Of course, if you are anything like me, you won't be able to afford to just boycott or partially-migrate your bank. I don't have that kind of money knocking around. So I believe that Betdaq needs to be at the forefront of organising an aggressive marketing plan that enables us all to move over together, with assurances that if we migrate en masse, the platform will be stable enough and the choice of markets varied enough. Here is how they've reacted so far (taken from the Facebook page above):

"As you can imagine we are inundated with a large amount of requests in the last 48 hours in relation to the new Premium Charges being introduced by Betfair.

We will endeavour to contact you as soon as possible to update you on how we plan to proceed and also discuss the possibility of a meeting.

Kind Regards,

The BETDAQ Marketing Team"

Promising, I think you'll agree. But if they are to do their bit, then we as individuals, all need to do our bit. It's actually quite exciting when you think about it. This is maybe a once in a lifetime chance for many of us, to become part of a revolution. We have the chance to change the face of gambling and trading in the UK - maybe the world! Seriously though, the anger behind this seems palpably stronger than it was when the PC was first introduced. Sure, most people were pissed off but the 20% probably wasn't a high enough motivation for revolution for the vast majority. Added to the fact that Betdaq hardly did anything to lure us over and their markets back then were pitiful liquidity-wise, you can be forgiven for thinking that it was fruitless. But things have changed. Betdaq liquidity is vastly improved. The Wimbledon semi-finals yesterday had more than enough liquidity to make them tradeable for most punters and I know that when I've checked in the past, the later stages of events all appear to have decent enough liquidity for the average trader. It's the earlier rounds and smaller events that are the worry.

Perhaps a gradual migration of all activity could be the way to go for many of us tennis boys. I'm sure once word gets out and Betunfair's name gets dragged through the mud by the press, the low-level punters will start to flock over and join the rest of us - the revolutionary trend-setters! To be honest, there is no reason at all why a standard punter shouldn't be using Betdaq over Betunfair already. Commission is lower and if you are just taking a punt, you don't need masses of liquidity. So in theory, the only reason most people are using Betunfair anyway, is because they don't know about Betdaq or have become familiar with Betunfair and so don't really care.

Anyway, we should not be waiting for others to take the lead, we should be at the forefront of the revolution, sticking it to Betunfair hard and straight. That means putting the word out about the Facebook and Twitter pages on forums, blogs and trading rooms and considering moving over whatever activity we can, away from Betunfair and over to Betdaq. We in the know should be educating everyone so that they are aware that this charge affects EVERYONE, not just the elite few. The next phase will then be up to The Daq. Do they have the balls and the ambition (and the financial clout) for a fight? Whatever the case, we need to be 100% behind them, not critical of the only business that can really help us get the fairness we seek. Betunfair are going through turmoil right now. They are struggling with their shares on the stock market, have seen a number of key management people quit and now have this bad publicity to deal with. The time is perfect to strike a blow. But the greatest obstacle to us succeeding is the punters out there who are negative and don't believe that anything will change. Nothing will ever get done if those people don't get off their arse and be more positive. So don't just sit there with apathy, get on the Facebook page and JOIN THE REVOLUTION!