Centre Court Trading

What a Difference a Year Makes

2012-03-04T02:40:00.002Z

Today, I looked back on a couple of posts I made a year ago and one in particular caught my eye:

Deer in the Headlights

It is about that 'deer in the headlights' moment, where we aren't prepared for something to go horribly wrong and when it does, we don't know what to do so just sit there staring at the ladders and hoping for the best. Reading over the whole post, it really does feel like another life-time. The way I was trading back then, I was always just one minor error away from losing the plot. If I had a bad start to the day, things would often snowball so quickly out of control that I could be hundreds of pounds down by the end of the day and my mental state in tatters. And it wouldn't necessarily end there. Now, A good night's sleep always signals a clear head and fresh start the next morning, no matter how bad the preceding day was. A year ago, I would often wake up feeling positive but the losses from the day previous would still be festering inside my subconscious and I'd be chasing, whether it was obvious or not. The startling thing though, is that once again, it's clear that I knew what I SHOULD be doing, and my analysis was excellent but I failed to take it on board and execute correctly for months and months afterwards.

I'm happy to report that I never put on that pair of antlers anymore! That's partly down to the fact that I have a clearly defined set of rules on when to exit, which I have confidence in. But even if I slip up and don't manage to exit when I should, I also have a big safety net because my risk-reward ratio is far, far better than it was last year. So if I do have a brain-storm or simply fail to get matched in time, I know that the worst that can happen is a 2-3% loss of my bank. That's because my staking and the prices I take on are not as risky. A year ago, if I was caught in the headlights, I could be losing anything up to 25% and if the red mist came down, I would even risk 100% on rare occasions!

Don't get me wrong, I'm still constantly working every single week on the mental side of trading because I know how quickly things can slip if you are not wary. On March 1st for example, I noticed that I seemed to relax a lot, following the end of my successful February. I just took my eye off the ball for a few games and I'm certain it's because I was still basking a bit in the glory following my best ever month. It gave me a bad start to March but I'm much more philosophical about it than I would've been a year ago, and shrugged it off. Plenty of time to put that straight!

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 1, Victoria Azarenka:

Finally!

2012-03-01T10:00:00.002Z

I hadn't posted anything for a couple of weeks in February. It has done me the world of good, to spend less time at the PC screen getting involved in debates, arguments and deep analysis. During that period, my trading has reached new levels of consistency and I'm quite proud to report that I have achieved my best ever month of tennis trading, finally breaking the four-figure barrier.

Three things really pleased me about February. First of all, I had that terrible week or so where the luck wasn't going my way. The way I dealt with that and the fact I kept ploughing on and sticking to my guns despite the temptations to go off the rails, have undoubtedly made me a stronger trader, mentally. I felt that it was vital however, that things evened themselves out sooner rather than later, to show that I was on the right path. I was duly presented with that change the following week, as fortune did a huge u-turn and came sprinting back in my direction. Ironically, it was a turn of another kind which signalled the beginning of the change - Victoria Azarenka turning over her ankle during a match in Doha. Up to that point, I was staring at yet another red figure but the injury sent the market into panic, which I was able to take advantage of and escape with a huge green. My relief was palpable! After that, I noticed the greens started to pile-up more frequently and the hard work I'd put in keeping my reds nice and low during the bad spell, was rewarded.

The second thing that pleased me, was that I have now settled on my strategy 100%. Over the past 6 months, I have begun to mould my trading style so that I am a value taker and a 'discretionary' trader (use instinct more than strict rules). At the start, it was very different to how I'd previously traded and so there was a lot to get used to and many things I was unsure about. As each month has passed, I've answered more and more of my questions and made more and more choices about how exactly to make my trading successful. February has finally seen any doubts about what I need to do in any situation, banished. I have now reached a point where I am satisfied with all aspects of my strategy.

The third thing that I'm pleased about is that there is massive potential to up-scale. I achieved these profits using a maximum liability of just £50, with an average liability even less than that. Amazing to think that exactly a year ago, I couldn't get near these profits with 5 times that liability! In fact, it's been almost 2 years since I regularly used stakes that were this low; that's the best part of two years trading with stakes way above my station. I can increase these stakes by 10 times that amount and easily get matched in most games and that is quite an exciting thought. I'm fully aware that one good month does not make a good trader and there is no chance of me getting carried away, especially with my record of false dawns! However, considering that I've posted enough awful P&Ls to drive the average person to drink, I reckon I'm allowed to post this one up for posterity:

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 92, Mandy Minella of Luxembourg:

Performance Anxiety

2012-02-26T15:15:00.003Z

I wanted to write a bit about a great article in the FT Magazine by John Carlin entitled The Tragedy of Fernando Torres

Originally discussed on Peter Webb's Bet Angel Blog, the article talks about Fernando Torres's loss of form and how performance anxiety can affect sportsmen and women. A few excerpts which caught my eye:

“What it all shows,”........“is how fragile the mind can be, how subconscious elements can combine to trigger problems where, on past form and experience, they rationally should not exist.”

I think us traders can all relate to that!

“There are times,” Solari said, “when you feel as if you are an unstoppable phenomenon of nature. There’s a happy convergence of the mental and the physical in your game and your confidence just grows and grows. It all seems so natural. But then you have a bad game, and then another one and you start to get anxious, and you feel each time you go out and play as if you’re walking down a step, with one brick, and then another one, weighing you down. Before you know it you’ve walked down so many steps and the bricks have piled up to such a point that you feel as if you were lying buried under a big building.”

Replace the words 'game' and 'play' with 'trade' and it would accurately represent the extremes of trading and how things can so quickly turn from the good to the terrible.

Fernando Torres is an extreme case who has succumbed to “a dynamic in which everything you did before effortlessly becomes impossible, and then you try harder, working double as much, but things only get worse.”

John Murray, who before becoming a sports psychologist was a professional tennis player, also attaches blame to “overthinking” and counsels that for Torres to overcome what he describes as “catastrophic performance anxiety” he must try to play as he did when he was a child, “happily, for fun”.

This describes perfectly the way I was trading almost exactly a year ago, a period where I tried so hard and analysed so much but it all just seemed to make things worse. I realised that it was anxiety that was the reason I couldn't get out of the rut:

Down the Well

This 'performance anxiety' reached a peak at the time, exacerbated by the fact that I 'needed' the money but my bank size was tiny and money management poor. Today, I enjoy trading much more because I have a style of trading that suits me better and this twinned with much better bank management, no complete reliance on the income source and a risk-averse strategy, mean that I am able to trade without anxiety.

I also find that 'over-thinking' is becoming much less of a habit. My experience as a tennis trader now totals around 5000 hours (still 5000 short of the supposed 10,000 quoted by Malcolm Gladwell, required to become an expert!) and I'm now much more trusting of my instinct. As a result, things are starting to become more and more automatic for me and as each week goes by, my confidence is becoming stronger and stronger. I guess you could say, I'm starting to feel possibly how Fernando Torres felt when he was at Liverpool! Let's hope his Chelsea days are not on the horizon..........

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 14, Serbia's Jelena Jankovic:

Unlucky but Unscathed

2012-02-12T18:00:00.002Z

This week has been the most unlucky week of tennis trading I've ever experienced. I've lost more money before and I've traded far, far worse before but I've never had such a horrendous run of bad luck. If something could go against me during a match, it has. I've lost count of the number of missed break-points that have cost me good greens. So many times I've seen my exit point in sight, only to be whipped away at the last moment. Even worse, when I've decided not to get involved in a game, it's almost inevitably been a game that would've landed me a massive win. And the players almost seem to be conspiring against me; failing to serve out sets on regular occasions, throwing away huge leads and going off the boil straight after playing a superb game. Of course I understand that these things will happen in tennis but the amount of times it happened this week was simply amazing! I would say that I normally experience a run this bad maybe 3 or 4 times a year. This has been my worst yet. It got to the point where I was ready to blow like Vesuvius but this is where the good news comes in - I held it together.

It's easy to feel a sense of injustice during weeks like this and to lose your cool and start chasing. I'm quite proud that I did none of the above. In fact, I would say that I've come out of this week an even better trader. Mentally, I am definitely stronger. I can guarantee I would've been going nuts last year. Check out this post from exactly a year ago to see the difference!

OUCH!

I would say I've eradicated most of the issues mentioned in that post, although still, a year on, it is the lack of patience which is still the dominating factor that is stunting my progress. Even at the end of that post, you can see that I knew exactly what I needed to be doing but still, another 9 or 10 months later, I was making the same mistakes.

That said, I feel that the sheer weight of bad luck I've had to deal with all week has caused me to really work hard on my temperament, discipline and patience. As a result, I think I may have turned another corner. There were one or two things I was still a little unsure about going into this week but the fact that I've had to fight to keep my reds low consistently, has helped me to iron out a few issues. If I can keep trading to this standard, I should really be able to kick-on now because I'm never going to have a week with as much bad luck as this again. To come out of it relatively unscathed and even more confident, is possibly even better than having a profitable week.

Sometimes you need to be tested in order to find out your limitations. If you've been through the worst that can possibly be thrown at you and come out the other side, then you really don't have anything left to fear. Saturday and Sunday were arguably the best 2 days of trading I have ever done. Not because I made more than ever before or because I had no losses but because I was 100% confident and fearless with what I was doing. Monday to Friday was a real struggle to keep my sanity in tact but by the weekend (despite the fact I was STILL not getting much luck!) I was trading with much greater clarity. I realised that I had probably got through the worst of it and so wasn't fighting any negative emotion anymore. And when you have that complete lack of fear of the market, you have won half the battle.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 249 (still coming back after long illness lay-off, during which time she flirted with politics!), Anna Chakvetadze of Russia:

You Cannot Be Serious, Man?!

2012-02-10T11:30:00.001Z

I wanted to write today about the seriousness of trading. Over the past few weeks, I've received a few comments and read a few blog posts and forum discussions that made me construe that there are far too many people who take trading way too seriously. Whilst I believe that you need to be professional in your outlook and to be serious in implementing that, I think it is too easy for people to lose their sense of humour in doing so. I've always maintained that gambling + internet + male ego = anger. You put a bunch of mostly young, male, perennial losers (in the gambling sense) behind the anonymity of a computer screen and you have a recipe for arguments and hate-filled scorn. That's why betting forums can often be quite ill-tempered places.

Even those of us who aren't looking for a virtual scrap, can get sucked into this. Whilst I think analysis is good and can only help you in your progress, I think sometimes we traders can look too deeply into things and get caught up in debates that, whilst interesting, can become very draining. Keyboard Warriors and Trolls are inevitable in this environment and these are the people with the most anger and consequently, the smallest sense of humour. I'm not excluding myself from this at all. I know that I've been angry in the past and perhaps taken this game too seriously but one thing I've never done is take that anger out on someone else in a malicious manner.

There are people out there who are just scouring the net looking for an opportunity to take a dig at someone. In this gambling world, unfortunately, the percentage of these trolls seems high compared to most other online communities and I think it's because people who are losing often hate to see people who are winning. And if there is no one successful to have a go at, they will try and belittle someone who is struggling (the same as they are) - just as in the old school playground.

After several years in this environment, there has come a point now where I just want to have a laugh rather than get involved in too much heated debate. The most important thing in life for me, is laughter. But when I get into the trading bubble, that humour sometimes goes missing, either directly due to my trading or due to what someone else has written. It's not in my nature to be argumentative or negative but sometimes I get dragged down by the whole trading environment. I think I need to find a way of finding the humour within trading, without losing the ethos of this blog, which was always about me being honest about my trading experiences. I think it will actually help me with my trading, to have that healthier balance, so I'm in a better frame of mind when on the ladders.

OK, this post has got a bit depressing now so I'll finish with this:

How many traders does it take to change a light-bulb?

1 to buy it
2 to take it back, saying it was too expensive and had no value
5 to smugly claim they unscrewed the old bulb, miraculously sold it, bought a new one with the profit and are now 'all-green'
10 to give tips on how to fit it properly
20 to call the tipsters mugs
100 to take credit for changing the light-bulb, half an hour after it had been changed

That's the best I can come up with! If you can come up with a better answer, I'll stick it on my next post.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 40, Australia's head-case, Jarmila Gajdosova:

Sound Familiar?

2012-02-08T13:40:00.003Z

0-0

OK, I've been matched, now just wait and watch the green roll in!

15-0

First point goes against me, no worries, long way to go yet.

30-0

Only half-way till the game is won, not on my players serve so not a problem.

40-0

No point redding-up now, most of the market movement is finished.

GAME

OK, lost this game but my player will probably hold serve and I'll be all-square.

0-15

Only one point, no need to panic yet.

0-30

He'll probably focus more and pull out a couple of big serves here, then I'll red-up.

0-40

No point redding-up now, most of the market movement is finished.

GAME

FOR FUCK'S SAKE!!! Knew I should have redded-up earlier!! No way I'm going all-red now, that's way too much. Looks like I'm all-in........just need a break here and I'm back in with a chance. COME OOOOOOOONN!!!!

15-0

Shit.

30-0

F**** off you ****!!!

40-0

Is he tanking this?! Dirty f****** cheat!

40-15

OK, here we go, back in the game.

40-30

Yes, that's it, just one more point!

40-40

YEEEESSS!!! I knew it, this is it, I promise I'll red up if he wins this game!

ADV

YOU LITTLE BEAUTY!!! Please God, just one more point and I promise I'll never, ever let a red trade run this long again.

GAME

GET IN THERE YOU B******!!!!! I've got the momentum now and it's on serve. No point redding-up now. Just one more game.

0-15

Only one point.

0-30

If he comes back from here I'm gonna jump around the room, fist pumping and roaring at the top of my voice like a primeval animal and I don't give a toss who hears me.

0-40

Ah well, that's it, you've messed it all up again haven't you, you cretin. No chance now, no way in a million years he's coming back from that. I give up trading, can't be doing with this shit.

15-40

No, forget it, it's too late now you muppet. Why wait until now before bothering to try? Hopeless.

30-40

Come on mate, you can do it, this is much better, don't give up now!! Oh God please, just one more point!!

GAME, SET, MATCH

AH YOU MOTHERF******** PEICE OF **** B****** C****** W******!!!!! Thanks for getting my hopes up at the end there, you lazy git!

Why oh why didn't you just red-up at the start you idiot!?

0-0

I'll soon get it back on this next game............

**Just for those of you with no sense of humour, the above does not represent me and my trading. It's merely a parody of a scenario most tennis traders will have gone through at some point. I thought I'd be a little light-hearted today, as some people take trading far, far too seriously.........

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 15, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova of Russia:

0-0

Chasing

2012-02-07T08:00:00.001Z

Continuing from yesterday's post about 'rotating lessons' and the 7 trading lessons that appear to constantly rotate in our learning. Before I go on, I just want to re-iterate that this list is not a serious, defining set of trading laws. It was a list done off the top of my head in 5 minutes, so please, don't look too deeply into it! Here is that list of lessons again:

1. Don't chase losses
2. Don't get greedy
3. Don't trade with amounts you can't afford to lose
4. Don't over-expose your bank on one trade
5. Don't cut winning trades short or let losing trades run
6. Don't get involved unless there's value
7. Don't trade when in the wrong frame of mind

All the others except for number 3 and 4, have come into play at some point this year. I was going to say I don't think I have chased losses but I actually think I may be guilty because there are two distinct ways in which we do this. The first is simply when we go 'on tilt', or the 'red mist' descends. We lose control of our emotions and it can last for days, weeks, even months. This is what I call 'overt chasing' - cos it's pretty bloody obvious we are chasing and we know that at the time, even if we won't admit it. We'll place straight bets, go 'all-in', try to win back specific amounts, over-stake, get involved in sports or markets we don't know much about etc.

But I think there's a second, more subtle variety of chasing. We often probably don't even know we are doing it. I call it 'subconscious chasing'. This is when you probably feel quite calm and think you've got things under control but underneath, you are still seething at an error. You won't do anything massively rash or risky and the bank will never be in danger but what you'll probably do is something like take on a price that is border-line value, which you'd normally ignore. Or you'll maybe stay in a trade a few minutes longer than usual, just to 'top-up' that green in line with what you may have lost. Or you'll find yourself wanting to trade for a bit longer than usual, despite the fact you may be tired or in a bad frame of mind.

It won't be anything major, nothing heart-stopping but nonetheless, it will be a slight stray from your usual strategy and if it goes wrong, can leave your mental state even worse. However, when you win, it will possibly just go down as a good trade or at least, you will tell yourself that and let it slide. Which is why subconscious trading can be almost as dangerous as overt chasing. With overt chasing, you KNOW what you did was wrong and no matter how much you might try, you can never truly convince yourself otherwise that even a win wasn't lucky (though many will sit in denial). But with subconscious chasing, the state of your trading won't necessarily come under firm scrutiny because you might not be noting this down as an error. This in itself, is a big mistake.

One of the hardest things for any trader to do, is to admit when their wins were lucky, or achieved through poor trading. But I think it's vital that you are able to be honest with yourself, otherwise, how are you ever going to improve? That's why whenever I make notes on my matches, I always jot down whether the green I got was achieved through the correct processes. If it wasn't, it often is because I've been subconsciously chasing. I haven't overtly chased for months now but I've definitely subconsciously chased on a few occasions. I know a lot of traders will say that 'green is green', which is a phrase I've seen a lot and don't like because it suggests that any green is OK, doesn't matter how you get it. This is incorrect - not all green is good! If you achieved it through doing the wrong things, especially by chasing, then green most definitely is not (good) green. And if you convince yourself that it is, it is highly likely you'll continue to trade that way until you finally, inevitably, become a cropper.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 10, Andrea Petkovic of Germany:

Rotating Lessons

2012-02-06T09:15:00.002Z

I mentioned recently how I've been reading through Mark Iverson's blog from the beginning and this particular extract from almost 4 years ago, caught my eye:

I think I need to slow myself down, take the small wins when they present themselves and not get greedy. A situation I've been in many times before but it seems I'm still learning the same lessons. In fact, the more I think about it the more I realise that there's probably only a handful of trading lessons in total, only they rotate just as the last one gets forgotten.

This really struck a chord with me because I have thought this many times over the past 6 months or so. So what are these key trading lessons or rules? This is what I came up with:

1. Don't chase losses
2. Don't get greedy
3. Don't trade with amounts you can't afford to lose
4. Don't over-expose your bank on one trade
5. Don't cut winning trades short or let losing trades run
6. Don't get involved unless there's value
7. Don't trade when in the wrong frame of mind

I honestly cannot think of any aspect of trading that will not fit into these 7 categories (let me know if you think of any more!). Whenever we make mistakes, it's always down to one of these 7 issues (some of which over-lap a little e.g. chasing losses can lead to over-exposing your bank) and as Mark points out, you can often feel as though you've combated one of them but a few weeks or months later, it rears its ugly head again. It can feel like an endless cycle of trying not to slip back into bad old habits but in my opinion, there is only one way out of that cycle - work harder.

What I've found is, the more effort I put into analysing the root cause of each error and then finding new techniques to work on each cause, the more success I have at preventing those errors. The more I practiced and experienced each situation, the more I got better at dealing with these trading lessons. I'm not for one minute saying I've eradicated these problems but that in itself, is one trading lesson I've come to learn and accept above all else - you will NEVER eradicate all of those errors. I think the very best traders simply catch those errors earlier, deal with them more calmly and experience them much less.

I would hazard a guess that number 3 and 4 would probably be the only ones that a top trader will completely cease from doing. All the others I reckon almost everyone will continue to slip up on every now and then. The difference being, whilst it may have happened regularly at the beginning, it will maybe only be an issue a couple times a month or even a few times a year.

Currently, I would say number 5 has been the issue I've been struggling with most, especially getting those greens to run for longer. This eventually led directly to another of the trading lessons - number 2, greed. The previous week, I decided to go for more money, larger greens, by letting all my entry trades run through to conclusion. As you may remember, I wrote that this destroyed my excellent January with 14 straight reds! Had I not been greedy and traded as normal, I would have almost certainly achieved my best ever month of tennis trading. Law of the Sod.

More on this subject tomorrow.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 9, Na Li / Li Na of China:

Happy Birthday!

2012-02-04T11:05:00.001Z

As of today, Centre Court Trading is officially 1 year old. This was my first ever post from February 4th last year:

ABOUT THIS BLOG

Reading back over that post really makes me cringe. I was feeling exuberant at the time, as though I'd discovered what the big secret was to trading and that it had been staring me in the face all-along. My talk of moving from 'boom and bust to profitability' and how the past year 'had been one of the most difficult challenges of my life', in particular make me feel rather foolish. The following period saw the exact same 'boom and bust' repeated for another 7 months and if I thought 2010 was difficult, it had nothing on 2011! As for 'the penny finally dropping', it may well have done as far as trading psychology was concerned (the theory if not the actual practice!) but that same penny still needed to be set in motion for just about every other aspect of trading - bank management, value spotting, discipline, professionalism etc.

I would say now, 12 months on, I am truly at the stage that this very first post describes. 'Boom and bust' has been gone for a few months now, replaced at first by a break-even period and I am now actually making small profit (over a relatively short period). The penny has definitely dropped in all major aspects of trading. And my first year of blogging can accurately be described as tumultuous, to say the least! But I am now ready to move to the next stage, which I hope will be the final stage - consistent profitability. Perhaps the biggest change over my year of blogging is that I no longer feel the pressure that I was under back then. Both financially and in terms of trying to look good on the blog, the pressure to do well really affected me at times and gave me way too much stress and anxiety.

February and March turned into absolute disasters in 2011. Believe it or not, my stakes were 5 times larger than what I use now! Astonishing when you think about it, though I do know of a lot of traders who went too big, too early and lowered stakes after a rough patch. It's no wonder I was so stressed and angry most of the time, having to manage those huge red figures. I'm a completely different trader now - much more realistic with my ambition and much calmer and more patient. Still not as patient as I could be though! It's going to be very interesting comparing where I was on the blog a year ago, each week. This was one of the reasons I began blogging, although I never would have guessed my progress would have been so slow - I thought I'd be another Mark Iverson by now!

I also never would have guessed I'd have almost 60,000 hits, which isn't too shabby for a first year in operation I guess! I just hope I'm still around in another year, only this time, with some decent profit to show for my troubles. Hope you'll keep following my journey - I've got a good feeling about year 2............

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 21 Germany's Gorgeous Goerges:

Grand Slam Come-down

2012-02-01T10:01:00.000Z

The week after a Grand Slam event is always a strange one. After the epic marathon of an Australian Open final, it's even stranger than usual this week. Back come the 250 events, with their eerily quiet morning sessions, polite, sparse applause, blurry internet coverage (where you can't see the ball half the time) and frequently incorrect scoreboards. Zagreb is a far cry from the excitement and pulsating atmosphere of Melbourne. Ricardo Mello v Diego Junquiera is hardly gonna wet the appetite after Djokovic v Nadal. But for me, I don't mind at all. These are the bread and butter weeks and I quite like the contrast. As all the football bettors return to the Premier League till summer, it's just us true tennis aficionados left and talk becomes a little more, shall we say, refined. OK, maybe not refined but certainly far less of 'Federer is Nadal's bitch, Nadal is the GOAT' etc etc.

Don't let anybody tell you that these smaller tournaments are not worth trading. It's absolute garbage, usually said by people who simply don't know the players names. Obviously, the quality of tennis is not going to match what you see in a Grand Slam event but that's no different to any sport. Do serious football traders ignore The Championship because they don't like the standard? Of course not! In fact, many will tell you that the best opportunities lie in the lower leagues, where people have less info and know less about what they are doing in the market. I can tell you for a fact that finding value is easier in these smaller events for the exact same reason.

One example was Dusan Lajovic v Matteo Viola. Lajovic was odds on fave and traded sub-1.2 when he went ahead in set 1. Yet Viola is not only ranked 50 places ahead of him but BEAT Lajovic only two weeks ago at the Australian Open! The only reason I can think Lajovic was priced so low was because he was playing in Croatia and maybe people got his nationality muddled up (he's Serbian, hardly likely to be a home favourite in Zagreb!). Or maybe his indoor record compared to Viola might've been seen as favourable but as Matteo beat him on a hard court, that makes little sense either (and their records aren't that different actually). Viola won 2-0.

Anyway, my point is, if you make the effort to know more than everyone else, the opportunities are there. The standard of the tennis is completely irrelevant. What difference does it make if you are seeing beautifully constructed rallies with stupendous winners smoking the lines like a speeding bullet? If you are entering the market because of the shot selections of a player, then you are entering for the wrong reasons. OK, you can argue it's easier to read a game if the quality is higher, as there are less mistakes and unforced errors but it's quite rare that two players play terribly at the same time. Besides, what the markets are doing is far more important than what the players are. There wasn't even a stream at all for that Lajovic-Viola game.

As long as you can get matched (rarely an issue on any televised tennis match plus, if you 'make' the market, it's still easy to get matched at value) and you are not going in blind, it doesn't matter if they are shanking every other ball into the net. It may be more fun watching Nadal and Djokovic battling it out like unearthly warriors but that doesn't mean you are any more likely to make money (unless you are playing around with huge figures and if you are, why the hell are you reading this?! Get back on your yacht!).

Besides, people speak as if there is no good tennis played at 250 level. Already this week there's been Davydenko, Youzhny, Almagro, Melzer, Baghdatis, Gasquet - some of the finest players to grace the ATP not only currently but EVER. And it's not as though the lesser players never play good matches. It's very easy to compare Lajovic v Viola with Murray v Djokovic and have a good old laugh but very few players have ever produced tennis as good as those semi-finals at the Australian Open.

I used to hear the same things said about the lesser leagues of European football, when I was a soccer trader but I've said it before and I'll say it again - I'm trading for the money, not for the buzz. Therefore, it makes no difference if it's the best or worst match in the world. The markets still tend to react the same way no matter who's playing.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 8, Russia's Vera Zvonareva:

Sultan's Blog Review: Part 2

2012-01-29T16:15:00.003Z

Continuing my blog reviews from yesterday. All blogs can be found on my blog-roll to the right of this page.

There are a few blogs which are more general trading blogs and don't focus specifically on one sport. One of my faves is 'Betfair Trading Challenge - Yet Another One' which has been around for ages under different guises. Another new name for 2012! Here, Average Guy gives his personal account of his trading exploits. It has to be said that in the past, he has been very down on himself, which often results in unnecessarily negative posts. I know he's trying to change that but it's not easy when you can't quite seem to crack this trading lark. Nonetheless, it's writing from the heart and strong writing at that, with a nice dark humour under-pinning it. A very under-rated blog; even the author himself doesn't realise how good this blog could be (if he wants it to!) with some more regular posts that have some of the detail of last year. Average Guy does 'anguish' well, but let's hope the struggles end in 2012.

'Patient Speculation' is another long-term blog on my list that was a real fave of mine. There were some innovative ideas, such as a 'post of the week' section (the best posts from other blogs highlighted and debated) and top trading-related quotes, as well as some insightful writing. It's a blog that really took part in the notion of a sports trading community and provided help, guidance and wisdom for its readers. Unfortunately, Mark seems to have abandoned this and gone for the run-of-the-mill P&L / picks daily posts, which I have to be honest, I stopped looking at after a few days and have not checked for months. I plead with Mark to give us a bit more because he knows his stuff and has a knack for blogging that most don't have. Patient Speculation is a real resource for traders and even now, is worth looking back through old 'posts of the week' in particular.

Then there's the brilliant 'Sports Trading Life', which consistently has thought-provoking and superbly written posts about pretty much every sport you can trade. Of course, STL has a strong incentive to be good - they have products to sell! No one is forcing you to buy them though, so I urge you to read through the articles and pick up some valuable insight. Not really sure about this 'Mug's Selections' idea though. Surely a true mug punter would just bet on the short-priced favourite every time, so therefore, this section doesn't really work? Anyway, just splitting hairs, as the interviews and knowledge imparted are a must-read for any aspiring trader.

Finally, a few new blogs that have come to my attention. 'Yorkshireman in SE20' is a new title for an old blog that had been rested for a while by Rob The Builder, who you might remember from 'Gambling Cos Building's Up the Spout'. Was a good read in the old incarnation, though don't expect too much trading talk this time around (he says!). It won't matter too much if the humour and quality of writing remains as entertaining. 'It Only Matters When There's Money On It' is a brand new blog, so not much to say about this except that I instantly added it to my blog-roll because it is well written. The author likes his tennis too and that's something we need to see more of in the sports blogosphere. 'Talking Tennis Trading' is also a recent addition and although posts have been sparse, it's again, well written and could develop into something which can fill a bit of a void.

Two young upstarts in the form of 'Bet19' and 'Trading Betfair' are well worth a read. What I like about them is that they are obviously fairly new to trading (or still learning the ropes) but unlike many blinkered, arrogant blogging newbies, seem to have their feet on the ground. Bet19 in particular has a strong quality of writing and plenty to say - a natural blogger. Both authors write about the emotional side of trading and are prepared to admit their mistakes and to take on knowledge from others and improve. That's why I think they could both be successful as traders and why it's worth following their progress. I'm also going to add '500-5000' to this new blog section. After a rocky start to blogging life last year (where the author was torn apart by a few traders for an embarrassing mistake with a Bundesliga bet), the author has returned this year with a new attitude, focus and a more realistic goal (although the blog is still called 500-5000!). We've all made daft mistakes in our trading lives and it's how we learn from these that will often determine how successful we are. I think it's a good sign that 500-5000 (still think he needs a catchier moniker - how about 'The Fuhrer'?!) has taken on board criticism and hasn't just skulked away and is persevering. I will be following to see whether he earns his stripes in 2012 and hope to see him progress.

The above are a stark contrast to the final blog on my list - John O'Dwyer's 'Betfair Profit and Loss'. It's not much of a read these days, more of an occasional P&L update but I follow because I live in hope that one day, John will wake up and admit he's got it all horribly wrong and listen to what I and Cassini and countless others have told him. Read the blog from start to finish (if he's not deleted most of it) and you'll see how cruel this game can be if you get over-confident and think you've made it without following basic principles of trading, such as bank management and finding a true edge. Read my interview with John from last year and Cassini's follow up, here. Again, I stress that I'm not trying to get at O'Dwyer (some of his errors are similar to mine) but trying to get him to end the cycle of madness that he has found himself in for over a year now. And if he remains too stubborn to do that (and recent posts suggest things are actually getting worse, as he now wants a £3-4,000 bank before he has the 'stability' required to win) then I hope at least others out there will learn from those mistakes. Trips to watch the US Open in New York might seem like the pot of gold at the end of the trading rainbow but what does it all matter when a year later, you are struggling to pay the bills?

Any good blogs I've not mentioned, throw them my way and I'll take a look, maybe even review it. Please, no purely P&L, tips or picks blogs, nothing trying to sell a service and nothing too stats based. Anything that is well written and genuinely interesting, I'll stick on my blog-roll (please don't be upset if I don't add you, it's just that I'm not interested in blogs that have little so say other than a list of picks/tips/stats/P&L).

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OFF-COURT BEAUTY: More Ana Ivanovic!

Sultan's Blog Review: Part 1

2012-01-28T11:20:00.003Z

I've noticed as the New Year has begun, that a lot of new blogs have surfaced, as well as some resurfacing of old blogs. It's probably that typical New Year rejuvenation and optimism that is the cause. No doubt in a couple of months, half these blogs will end up on the scrap-heap or shoved to the back of the closet again! But whilst there is a feast of bloggage to peruse, I thought I'd do a little review of what is out there that has caught my eye.

I only tend to add blogs to my roll that I actually enjoy reading, so you'll find all of the following on the right hand side of this page. I'll start with the obvious ones; Green All Over and Mark Iverson. I'm sure you are already aware of these fine reads, so no need to delve too much into them. Mark rarely posts these days but it's worth reading his blog from the beginning if you are new to trading or looking for some inspiration. You'll discover someone's journey from early in their trading life (not at the beginning but certainly before Mark was raking it in) to going full-time.

As for Cassini, he is so prolific, you need to make sure you check his 'previous posts' because he does often post 2 or 3 times a day! I recently started reading the blog from the very start and although there isn't much new info I've picked up about trading, it has given me real inspiration and reinforced a few ideas. Just seeing that Cassini himself has made big errors and lost large amounts and reading him question himself when trading certain sports, is enough to make you feel better about your own struggles. But for newbies, there are loads of gems of info and it's as valuable a tool in your learning process as any forum or financial trading book.

TradeShark's blog is more of a daily selection of his potential trades but is interesting nonetheless, as it gives a good insight into how to trade tennis and you can learn a lot about the players as the write ups are very detailed and informative. Of course, this is just the way he trades, which may not be suitable for everyone, but still a good read for those learning the ropes. He's particularly astute when it comes to the ATP and although I disagree sometimes with his WTA picks, he has more balls than me because I will not be disclosing my selections any time soon! I would really love to see him blog about his trading in more depth, as there aren't really any decent tennis blogs which go into detail about the actual trading life. I'd certainly like to read about someone actually doing well and their thought processes, as opposed to just me banging on about losing! It's not easy to come up with stuff to write when you are doing well though, which is why Cassini's blog is all the more impressive.

Then you've also got Peter Webb's 'Bet Angel Blog' and Scott Ferguson's 'Sport is Made For Betting'. Both concentrate more on the industry of trading and betting and the sports involved, rather than any personal commentary. Peter's blog often has some very interesting polls to take part in, whilst Scott's blog is more about uncovering controversy and news within the establishments that run the sporting and gambling industries. Scott knows his stuff when it comes to tennis though, so yet another weapon to add to your armoury if you are learning those markets.

I don't really read the horse racing blogs, as I find them very samey and very boring for the most part (though I'm prepared for someone to put me right on that if they know of any good ones) but there are a couple that stand out from the crowd. The first is High Class Equine, a blog that has only recently come to my attention. It doesn't just ramble on about the 3.15 from Catterick or post up inordinate lists of racing results with £0.53 made per trade. If you go to the 'Categories' section on the right hand side, you will see a very handy compartmentalised section for all genres of blog posts. This makes it very easy to pick out what may be of interest (particularly if you are not into horses). I recommend checking out the 'Articles', 'Professional Gamblers', 'Advertise Your Blog For Free' and 'Gambling Psychology' sections. Really excellent articles from a writer who believes in the community spirit of the sports trading blogosphere.

The second horses blog has changed name recently (probably due to the unrealistic nature of the original title, which aimed to make £28K in 2011 - not the only blog to do this!) to 'Trading a Profit 2012'. The monthly P&L section mysteriously disappeared after a few good months at the start (hmmm, wonder why!) but he wouldn't be the first blogger to do this, so I'll let him off. It follows the journey of Caan Berry, a young trader still learning the ropes, who shares a lot of his thoughts on the mental side of trading. This is something I always find interesting and which many blogs don't deal with at all and Caan writes very well on this subject. My only gripe is that the spelling and grammar are often very poor and this distracts from the content, which is actually very well thought out. Not being pedantic, I just would enjoy the blog more if it wasn't such a challenge to decipher! Not hard to use spell check and stick a few commas in here and there. Will be interesting to see his progress this year.

Lots of football blogs to choose from and while most of them fall into the trap of P&L boredom or just regurgitating what we already know about the week's football, there are a couple that write really well about their trading. Lambretta on 'Thoughts of a Football Trader' Gundulf on 'Betfair Football Trading - the Highs and Lows' and BubblesBrian on 'A Gambler's Life For me?' (question mark added for 2012, I notice!) have all been blogging for a while. Though they revolve around football trading, they offer more than just picks, stats and P&L (none of which particularly interest me) by actually talking about their trading in a more generic manner, which means that whatever you trade, there is something you can relate to. None of these guys have 'made it' as long term big success stories yet (Lambretta might want to put me right on that!), which also makes them a nice compliment to the likes of Cassini. We all like to read about the struggles of our peers, if only to make ourselves feel as though we are not alone. Whilst this empathy is good, these blogs also really get involved with their comments and it's great to debate and bounce ideas amongst like-minded peers.

More tomorrow!

TWITTER

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 22, Serbia's Ana Ivanovic:

Pitiful

2012-01-25T23:00:00.004Z

Aaron Jan 25, 2012 03:35 AM

You really are a fucking moron, quit trading for gods sake.

This is the message I woke up to today. Whilst I'd like to say it's the first time some idiot has left a comment like this, it unfortunately is not (although it's extremely rare). Writing a blog does have its downsides and one of them is that you have to put up with brain-dead neanderthals such as our friend Aaron. I do of course, have the option to shut off all comments but this is something I will never do because I enjoy the interaction with non-imbecilic traders. Besides, we all know that people like Aaron are always Angry Young Men who have lost probably thousands of pounds through gambling/trading and are just taking out their seething rage on the world. I almost feel sorry for him. Pity, is a better word. I've never met any successful trader who wasn't humble and polite or would feel the need to attack anyone trying to make their way in the trading world. Aaron is simply pitiful.

I could quite easily slip away and end the blog but I trade because I enjoy it and I write because I enjoy it. There is no ulterior motive at all here and that is why I've always been truthful and written exactly what I feel at the time. I could've lied a long time ago but how does that help me? Aaron seems to find this honesty a problem, though I'm not sure why!? If people don't like that, I would still continue to blog because this blog is above all else, written for ME. It has always been about helping MY trading and recording MY mistakes for MY benefit. If others enjoy it at the same time, that's just a bonus.

Anyway, I know many will say I should just ignore this ignoramus and normally, I would not give such comments the air-time but this particular verbal diarrhoea just made me laugh! I'm having one of my best ever trading months, so can hardly be upset about what this muppet has scrawled. But I want to have this comment saved and stored to use as inspiration. Any time I have a bad day, I will use Aaron's words as a motivator, to drive me onwards to do better. I don't normally require something like that (being already highly motivated) but I think it's good for all of us in life, to take anyone's negative words and use them for a positive. It's like the old football stories of managers sticking up the derogatory quotes taken from a newspaper, on the dressing room wall to fire up the team. Nothing will please me more than the day I shove those words right back up Aaron's angry rectum from whence they came.

So I no longer need anything to pick me up when I feel down or pissed off with my trading ineptitude (and Aaron, I don't need you to tell me when I've done something stupid, I already know as it's written on the blog by ME, you moron!) because I've got these 11 little words to inspire me - cheers, 'Aaron'!

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 21, Daniela Hantuchova of Slovakia:

Roll-on February

2012-01-24T23:50:00.001Z

I absolutely hate the second week of Grand Slam events. They are the quietest weeks of the tennis calendar, with the number of games barely reaching double figures. The last thing I need right now is for more time to dwell on the horrendous last 3 days I've had. I was on course for my best ever month of tennis trading but ruined that dream within 48 hours, first with an over-staked bet, based (wrongly) on an injury, that I refused to bail out of and then by upping my aggression and not trading out of my bets, which cost me hundreds of pounds with a losing run of 14 straight reds. Thankfully, Rafa Nadal ended that streak for me this afternoon. But I need games right now and they just aren't there!

I'd like to say a break will do me good but to be honest, my mind is perfectly clear and calm. In the past, I would have said a couple of days rest might be for the best but the last 3 days have actually just made me even more hungry to trade. I've said this many times before but there really is such a fine margin between success and failure. I worked out that the vast majority of my lost profit in January, can be attributed to just 6 matches. SIX!! Out of over 100!! Two of them had losses that were considerably larger than any of my standard reds. The other 4 were games where I not only ended up red but failed to take substantial opportunity to go all-green for a big sum. Those 6 matches, if they'd gone as they should have, would have more than doubled my current total, giving me my best ever tennis month to date. So even withstanding all the countless other errors I've made, I'd still be doing brilliantly if only I'd managed those 6 games properly. I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

Still, as January comes to a close, I'm very pleased in most other aspects of my trading. The days of chasing losses for days are GONE. The days of beating myself up (and beating anything within punching range up!) are consigned to history. The days of struggling to retain focus and fight against an approach that didn't suit me are dead and buried. I am still prone to the odd brainstorm but we are talking once every couple of weeks as opposed to once a day now! At the start of the month, I hoped that everything would finally click into place. It hasn't yet. There were still a few issues to iron out (such as still trading with my old approach sometimes) and some new questions arose (such as when to green up, if at all) but I think I've sorted it all out.

February promises to be very exciting. There's indoor, outdoor and clay-court tennis to come and times will be far more favourable to trade than those in January's Australian swing. Hopefully that will leave me a little sharper. My goal for February is simple - no more major fuck-ups. If I can eliminate them, I'm confident I can hit the 4 figure barrier. And if I can do that with the small stakes I'm on (still not into triple figures yet), it could be the start of a great year.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 15, Germany's Sabine Lisicki:

No Gambler's Life For Me!

2012-01-23T23:43:00.009Z

After yesterday's debacle, I really needed a nice, steady day to restore some spirit. Instead, every single trade was a loser. That's 10 on the spin now, my worst run this year. I didn't make any ridiculous errors, unlike yesterday, but I missed out on 3 occasions where I should have been all green and well in profit for the day. I have at least been able to draw an important conclusion from all of this - I am not going to be letting my trades run from now on.

A few days ago, I wrote that my notes show that if I'd just let my initial entry position run through to conclusion on all my trades this year, I would have 1200% more profit. So the last 2 days, I decided to try this new, ultra-aggressive approach on all my trades. Typically, I haven't won a match since! Down the years, I have seen many traders ask the question 'Have you worked out what you would have made if you hadn't traded out?'. Many suspect that you would probably end up with a similar amount to what you made by greening and redding up. My recent calculations suggest that it could be even more. But what the last 2 days have shown me is that I would much rather be a proper trader and close my positions, without question.

Firstly, we have to distinguish ourselves as traders - we are not gamblers for a reason. Whatever anyone says about trading and gambling being the same thing, whilst ostensibly, trading is still a form of gambling, in reality, the two require very different mindsets which are poles apart. I have never been a gambler and never showed any interest in it whatsoever. I don't enjoy it, don't get a rush or a buzz and would much rather have a nice, steady, boring income stream from trading, than get involved in the action.

"Amateurs look for challenges; professionals look for easy trades. Losers get high from the action; the pros look for the best odds."

Dr Alexander Elder from 'Come into my Trading Room'

If you are just letting your initial entry position run its course, that is nothing but a straight gamble. Yes, you may have taken value and yes, that trade may keep its value right to the end of the match but you have to take into account other factors. The one that bothered me the most was the stress factor. Having to sit through the ups and downs of a tennis match for 2-3 hours several times a day, is probably going to kill me! I couldn't bear to put my nervous system through that every day and I get no thrill at all from it. Then there is the time factor. If I close a trade after half an hour, whether red or green, I am now free to either move onto another game or to relax till the next match. This can only help keep you fresh for the rest of the day's trading. There is nothing worse than being stuck staring at a PC screen for hours at a time, so any chance I get to take a break, I want to grab it.

Then there is the psychological factor. Redding up for a small loss is fine in my book. I might be a tad pissed off if that trade reverses and goes on to win but I think long term these days and so I take satisfaction in knowing I did the right thing and protected my bank. Plus, I may have already moved onto another game and made profit by the time that big win came in. But there is nothing worse in trading, than when you see a big all-green screen slip away from your grasp. After 3 hours or more of watching a tennis match, can you imagine how demoralising it must be to see the £50 green you could have taken after half an hour, almost hit the end target of a £100 win and then slip back to a £25 red? Well I can because that's exactly what happened in the Sharapova v Lisicki match! I felt sick.

Now, traders (gamblers) who let all their positions ride will say that it doesn't matter about this because in the long run, your big wins will be far more than those losses. That may be true but you can't put a value on your own health! Sure, I could just go away and do something whilst the game runs its course but who in the hell is able to concentrate on another activity knowing what is at stake? I know I couldn't. There is nothing more satisfying than greening up before the end of a match, in my opinion. You might win more by waiting till the end of the game but the way I see it, by that time, you EXPECT to get the win for all the hours you've put in. Anything less is just a massive let-down, so that win doesn't even seem that exhilarating. So just for my own sanity, I've decided that I will be doing traditional trading from now on. Besides, I will be more than happy with just half of that 1200% profit increase!

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 4, Maria Sharapova:

Inspiration

2012-01-22T23:38:00.002Z

I've often wondered whether I should be putting myself through this day after day. I had a bad day yesterday, the first really bad day I've had this year. When I say 'bad', I mean that my losses were completely avoidable and I let one in particular, run way out of control. It annoyed me because I'd done so well this season and now a chunk of my bank has been bitten off. I went to bed in a nasty mood but as I write this, I'm more philosophical about things. I know I won't go on tilt and start chasing (haven't done that for a few months now) and I know the major error I made is unlikely to happen again. Some days, I just wake up in a strange mood and it affects my trading. It's not a bad mood; I don't feel anxious or worried or tired or unfocused. It's more like I'm too casual, like I'm not emotionally sharp enough to be dealing with large sums of money. Because I can't quite put my finger on this emotion and why I'm feeling it, I sometimes don't catch it until mid-trade - and by then, it's often too late.

Although my confidence isn't knocked, my spirit has been somewhat deflated. I always believe that I will come out the other end of the tunnel one day but on days like today, I need to draw inspiration from those who have succeeded. I would urge anyone to read back through Cassini's 'Green All Over' blog and Mark Iverson's blog, from the very beginning, as I have done. Nothing can give you greater inspiration than your own peers. Those blogs, as well as books written by successful financial traders such as Curtis Faith and stories from rich business-men such as Richard Branson, Simon Cowell and Alan Sugar, also are good reminders that even those who succeed go through rough patches.

Branson's 'Virgin' almost went under in the early years and he was fortunate not to end up in prison during an early fraudulent venture as a teenager. Alan Sugar pulled himself back from the brink of financial ruin. Simon Cowell's early record label went bust and he was forced to move back in with his parents in his 30s. But what they all had in common was tenacity and positivity - they never gave up and they learnt from their mistakes. Those are qualities that I believe I possess, although that tenacity can easily be mistaken for stubbornness. It is this stubbornness which I believe can hold many traders back and maybe held me back for months if not years. A refusal to change and try new ways, or a refusal to accept you might be wrong or worst of all, a refusal to accept any form of help or advice, will probably lead to the demise of most sports traders. Giving up too soon is obviously quite weak and a sign of impatience or lack of work ethic but similarly, not knowing when to stop and get help or to ignore what others are saying, is just as destructive.

I'm constantly amazed whenever I see a trader say that they just want to pick up trading from scratch by themselves or go against what experienced traders are saying. For many years, there was practically no help at all available online about trading. Now, it's everywhere and it's not difficult to find forums, books, guides, videos and blogs that will impart valuable knowledge. Why turn all that down just so you can muddle around for months in trial and error? I'd have killed for just a fraction of this readily available knowledge when I started on the exchanges 5 years ago. Everything I find these days only reinforces what I already know but even so, that's very good for morale. To know that you are on the right path and have it confirmed by those who have been there and done that, is a great motivator.

One thing that makes trading unique as a job, is that there are no qualifications, no definitive guide book to follow, no 'right way' pinpointed as the road to success and no mentors, management or award winners to look up to. Most of us don't have anyone to guide us and so we have to motivate and assess ourselves, which requires us to be objective about our performance - a very difficult thing to do. I guess what I'm trying to say is, this trading lark is hard enough as it is without making things harder for yourself by shutting yourself off to other's ideas. Especially when inspiration is out there, if you just look hard enough.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 1, Caroline Wozniacki of Pol......er, I mean, Denmark:

The Winning Curse

2012-01-21T23:00:00.001Z

I firmly believe that if I had started my trading life badly, I would have improved a lot quicker. The worst thing that can happen for a newbie trader is to go immediately on a winning run. It gives you false hopes; you think trading is easy and you're about to make vast sums of money at the click of a mouse, day in, day out. I remember after my first month of trading (with tiny stakes) I had done really well and thought it was just a matter of upping stakes............how wrong I was. It's a classic mistake made by novice traders and one which I believe ends the brief trading life of the majority of people because eventually they start losing, only the stakes are now enormous relative to their experience.

I was using £250 stakes after less than 6 months, which I believe is way too big. It was almost a whole year before I reduced those stakes to something more suitable to my level but even then, I probably should have gone back to the drawing board and started on tiny stakes. My stakes now are less than half of what I was using after 6 months and the liability is usually even less but I am far more profitable. So it never fails to amaze me the number of times I read about traders who have been learning for just a few months but are playing around with 3 figure sums, even over £500. It's just ludicrous for the average person to risk that amount when they are still learning the ropes.

But I guess that's the problem; these people don't recognise that they are still an apprentice. They think they are either some sort of prodigy or that their short term success is going to last forever - it rarely does. And so when that rough patch comes and the losses mount up, they have no idea how to deal with it. All they've known is success and when defeat comes, it will be a huge blow to confidence because the stakes were upped so much. Then comes the chasing and we all know how that ends!

I reckon some people never recover from that stage because they lose so much from having upped stakes too soon, that they can't get over it. Either they chase it all back (which can then give the false impression that they still have a gift for trading) or lose the lot and give up. Those who survive will probably go through the 'boom and bust' cycle for ages, because whenever they have a winning streak, it reinforces the belief that they don't need to change anything. Often only hitting rock-bottom can force them to make changes required to be successful.

Now imagine what would happen if you started out losing. If you blow your bank, you probably were using small stakes so the amounts being used can be easily re-loaded and you give it another shot. You also now should realise that trading is tough and you will have to make an effort to learn the ropes and take your time. This can only help your patience and discipline, the most vital components for your trading arsenal. You are also less likely to up stakes too soon because you know how easy it is to lose your whole bank. Basically, your whole approach will be more cautious and this can only benefit you in the learning process.

Also, you won't have that mental scarring built up from messing around with high stakes. There won't be those huge losses or those heart-busting moments fretting on big red positions etched into your brain and so that subconscious need to chase or needless fear of the markets won't be there. That's the theory, anyway! No one really knows how they will handle losing until it happens, though you are far more likely to still be in the game if you don't up stakes so quickly and the only reason people up stakes is because they think they are doing well. Usually though, this is just a short term fallacy and people often find that results will average out over the long term. You only have to look at John O'Dwyer and his attempts at trading on his blog. A classic case of someone who hit a big winning streak and thought he'd cracked it but then lost thousands. Unfortunately, he still thinks what he was doing was the right way. The winning curse had well and truly been cast.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 12, America's Serena Williams:

Statto!

2012-01-20T23:00:00.001Z

Long time readers will know that I am not much of a statistics guru. I'd go as far as to say I have very little interest in them. However, I do keep detailed notes on all my trades; what I did, the prices I took and the errors I made. These help me to work out what I could/should have won or lost and to see what is working and what isn't. I usually calculate a few basic stats every so often. As I write this, I have traded 101 games this season. Of those 101, I have made errors in 40. So almost half of all games traded could have been traded better. That is a lot of mistakes but miraculously, I'm still turning a good profit, which just goes to show how I'm not letting those errors affect me. It gives me great hope for the future too because if I can cut out most of those mistakes, my profit will boom.

The majority of those mistakes were made because I jumped into the market too soon. There were 27 matches where, if I'd waited longer for a better value price, I would have made a profit / increased profit, over what I actually got. I also counted 15 matches where I didn't exit early enough from an all-red position and another 15 matches that I got involved in when I should have just stayed away. So that's almost a third of all matches that have cost me more money than they should have. But the most staggering statistic of all is the following; if I'd let my initial entry bet run on for longer (either right to the end of the match or greening up closer to the end of the match) I would have increased my current profit by more than TEN TIMES! I worked it out as a monumental 1200% difference!

It's been tough to adapt to my new approach, particularly with the fact that I now have to accept far more losses. It's a challenge to maintain discipline when I frequently get a run of small reds but one I'm dealing with really well. My old approach was based on gaining lots of little to medium sized wins and hoping to keep my reds (which were medium to large to super-size) to a minimum. Now, I'm looking to maximize my wins by being more aggressive and letting my green positions run as long as possible. This is only just starting to become more natural for me and I am getting better and better at choosing the best moments to green up. However, these stats show that I could still be even more aggressive and let those green positions ride even further. There is a danger that it could just be a short-term anomaly and that the stats will even out in the long term but this isn't the first time that my analysis has shown that letting my greens run for longer would produce greater profit. It's just never quite been on this scale!

Redding-up is now less of an issue as it was last year. I've only had two losses which were over £50 and just one of those was a three figure sum (a blip from week 1 on a market I don't normally and haven't since gotten involved in), so I'm in control of things much more these days.

The overview of those first 101 matches though, is very simple; I'm STILL not being patient enough. Nothing new there then! My new mantra which I appear to have subconsciously picked up from another blog I think, is 'Keep your powder dry'. I keep re-iterating this every day but now these stats show that by doing this, I could be exactly where I want to be with my trading after all these years.

By the way, does anyone remember 'Statto' from Fantasy Football League back in the 90s? Brilliantly witty programme hosted by David Baddiel and Frank Skinner (comedy genius). Think Statto's real name is Angus Loughran (?) and is known to be a sports trader these days. Maybe someone can fill me in on that.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 46, Iveta Benesova of the Czech Republic:

Joy

2012-01-19T23:40:00.001Z

One of the most pleasing aspects of my trading so far this year, has been that I am enjoying it again. I spent large periods of last year where I didn't enjoy trading - either I couldn't get focused, couldn't make money, was bored, anxious or simply pissed off because of all the horrendous errors I kept making. I found the whole thing too stressful for the most part, to be enjoyable. This year though, I feel different.

Much of that is because I have a new approach that not only suits me better but also is far less risky. That means that, although I now have to take far more losses on the chin, the reds never reach heart-stopping levels. Because I'm less stressed, I am making less errors and because I'm making less errors, I'm not getting as frustrated and because I'm not getting frustrated, I feel physically and mentally better. I don't fear situations anymore because my staking and money management is much stronger. And all of this means that I can actually watch the tennis without pacing the room with my heart threatening to leap out of my chest! I'm not just enjoying trading again, I'm enjoy tennis again.

I think what also helps is that I am far more accepting of my mistakes these days. Last year, my goal was always to not make any errors at all, so whenever I did (even the smaller errors) it would frustrate me to the point that I couldn't get over it until I'd somehow atoned. That would normally mean chasing. The perfectionist within me had too much of a stranglehold on my emotions. This year, I now expect that I will make mistakes pretty much on a daily basis and this means that when I do make errors, I deal with them a lot calmer and quicker. And because my risk is a lot less anyway, I am not getting myself into situations where I'm likely to implode.

I would say to any new traders, if you are not enjoying trading then you should either make some adjustments (either in the sport you are trading or the style/approach) or stop altogether. You will struggle to succeed at anything, especially something that is so solitary and requires so much patience, if you don't get some fun out of it.

So altogether, I'm happier than I've ever been with life as a trader. But of course, it all means nothing if I am not making any profit. That's something I'll write about very soon...............

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 106, Sania Mirza of India:

Sultan's Blacklist

2012-01-19T00:49:00.002Z

Often you'll see on betting forums people mention they have a 'blacklist' of teams or players they supposedly will no longer bet on. This is nearly always an over-the-top reaction because they've made a poor bet and lost. But there are undoubtedly teams and players that have an uncanny knack of throwing away good leads, losing their heads or just being very erratic. With tennis, I find it is usually the players with the most natural talent that are like this. They look like world-beaters one minute and the next they are crumbling as if they had never set foot on a court in their life. That is a dangerous combination because we as traders can keep getting sucked into believing that this time will be different. Sometimes, it will be, which makes it even harder to resist temptation to give them another chance. The Australian Open has already served up many of my potential 'blacklist' players.

Fernando Verdasco

How on earth did he manage to lose that game against Bernard Tomic? He was completely in command, playing superb, attacking, bold and confident tennis, the kind we don't see regularly enough from the Spaniard. Tomic is wilting at the other end. He's clearly ill and doesn't seem to have any desire or energy for a fight in the Melbourne heat. The crowd is quiet and he's playing passively. I am all green by now and so confident that I stick the lot on Fernando. Tomic calls out the trainer but then refuses his help when he arrives. From that point on, Verdasco disintegrates. Tomic (barely even trying), somehow wins the 3rd set and Verdasco mentally capitulates. He's talking to himself, chuntering at his box, wildly gesticulating with his hands, pulling that inane, wry smile he always pulls when things aren't going his way.

Tomic still seems ready to give up but probably just looking at Verdasco's body language is enough to keep him going. He levels it at 2-2 and now Tomic has belief he can win and ups his game. He's now playing Verdasco off the park but despite this, the Spaniard keeps saving break points. I decide to keep all my green on Verdasco as he's playing clutch tennis on his serve, world-class stuff. I remember a year ago at the Australian Open, he almost knocked out Rafa Nadal. He's probably the closest thing to Nadal on the tour, with the way he plays. But he will let you down when you least expect it. Except really, I should say when you MOST expect it - I just keep giving him one more chance to prove me wrong. He didn't.

Jarmilla Gajdosova

Another player I cannot stand. Her power, stroke-play and timing of the ball are as good as anyone on the tour but time and time again, she loses her head and with it, her ability. She would be an absolute nightmare as a girlfriend, you can see it in her eyes and her body language. I'm not surprised her and Sam Groth's marriage didn't last! I remember him being her coach too - bad idea! She was always arguing with him and he looked as though he required the patience of a saint. It only takes one bad point from her and she seems to crack. And when she cracks, it's like Teutonic plates shifting.

She becomes an unforced error machine and doesn't ever seem to have the self-realisation that she needs to take some pace off the ball and just keep the damn thing in play for a bit! And that sulky look and shoulder-shrugging she does must give her opponent a massive lift. She looked beaten after the very first game against Maria Kirilenko on Monday. To be fair, she at least stuck it out and didn't give up, as she appeared to do in recent matches.

In the Hopman Cup against Marion Bartoli, she stormed out the blocks, hitting three breathtaking winners. She then missed an easy put-away at 40-0 and that was it - mentally finished. Gajdosova was broken and lost the match without winning a single game - double bageled! Yet knowing her fragile mind-set, I still got involved, taking what appeared to be a value early price against Kirilenko but not taking into account my past experience of this girl. Just like what I was saying in my previous post - I didn't factor this instinct about Gajdosova into the price. The look on her face told you that she never believed she was going to win that game.

The thing is, you can guarantee that whenever I decide to stay away from the aforementioned players, they will put in an amazing display of shot-making. Gajdosova almost beat Wozniacki last year and probably should have done, as she was brilliant except when it really mattered on the key points. It just goes to show how important the mind is when it comes to sport - and that's no different with trading.

***Other hypothetical black-list players include: Sania Mirza, Alexander Dolgopolov, Aravane Rezai, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Sam Stosur, Fabio Fognini, Nikolay Davydenko, Mikhail Youzhny, Jelena Dokic, Klara Zakopalova, Nadia Petrova and Stanislas Wawrinka all of whom have done me time and time again. They are all capable of giving the very best a run for their money but are just as likely to lose to someone ranked 250. All have one thing in common - supremely naturally gifted but flawed mentally. Except Stosur - she's just flawed mentally.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 29, Maria Kirilenko of Russia:

A Valuable Lesson?

2012-01-17T23:55:00.000Z

We are now just over 2 weeks into the 2012 season and so time for an update with how my trading is going. On the whole, I'm content. After a shaky first few days (where the month without trading had left me decidedly rusty) I am now really settling into a groove. This year was always going to be about cementing the new approach that I'd been working on towards the end of last year. I knew that I had to fully ingrain the aggressive, value-seeking, discretionary style of trading which I feel suits me best and will reap long term profit. So far, this has been going very well. In those first few days, I did slip back into old habits (such as trying to play the match rather than the market) but now I feel as though a switch has occurred somewhere deep in my subconscious, and the new approach is becoming steadily an automatic process.

Probably my main New Year's resolution was to improve my patience. This still appears to be the biggest struggle but I am improving. Despite saying (yet again) that I would not rush into a Grand Slam like a bull in a china shop, I did just that on day 1 of the Australian Open. It wasn't like last year though, where I was all over the place and losing large reds. This week was much calmer and the reds much smaller but I just need to follow my gut a little more and keep my powder dry for longer.

I've been noting whenever I've gone against my gut instinct, to see whether it's something I need to rely on more often and results show that I would have made significantly more money if I'd trusted my intuition. The problem is, sometimes I see a good value price and so take it, even though my gut is saying 'yes, it's value but I've a nagging feeling this is gonna bite you on the ass'. That gut feeling is normally based on an assessment of the players - what they are doing on the court and what I know of them from the past. I guess this is something I'm now grappling with as a trader - should you ALWAYS take a value price? I've come to the conclusion that the answer is 'no'.

A 'system' trader should probably always take that price as it falls within the rules and trigger points of their strategy but a 'discretionary' trade such as myself, relies much more on their instinct and reading of games in-play. I feel that if something is screaming at you to stay away, then you should listen to that inner voice - as long as you are experienced enough to have been in that situation hundreds or thousands of times. Without experience, you don't really have a well-tuned instinct that you can rely on and that 'gut' feeling is probably nothing more than fear or greed. Besides, my notes back up this idea so far because when I've ignored my gut and just taken the value, I've been burnt on almost every occasion.

But this then begs another question; if your gut is saying 'don't take the price!', does that mean that the price ISN'T actually value? Do we factor in that gut feeling into our assessment of the price? From a pure, cold, unemotional 'systems' perspective, that same price would be considered value but when incorporating instinct and feel at that very moment, from a 'discretionary' perspective, I guess I am saying that it isn't value. I'd like to know what others think.

I guess the lesson for me is that perhaps I should just stay away if it doesn't feel right. After all, you can't lose any money if you don't get involved. For now, I'm going to stick with what my P&L is screaming at me, which is 'TRUST YOURSELF MORE OFTEN, YOU NUMBSKULL!'

OFF-COURT BEAUTY - world number 59, Romania's Sorana Cirstea:

Grand Slam Punters

2012-01-16T23:40:00.003Z

The first Grand Slam of the year is upon us, and as always with these major tennis events, liquidity will increase massively. It never fails to amaze me how many people ignore tennis for 44 weeks of the year, yet somehow think they can make vast profit on those 8 Grand Slam weeks. If you don't understand the markets or know the players, how are you going to compete with those who do? I'm not just talking about your casual punter who has an occasional flutter on all major sporting events, I also mean those who trade entirely different sports for the rest of the year but suddenly switch over to tennis for 2 weeks.

Not that money can't be made; I'm sure there are those who do their research and keep tabs on the ATP and WTA tours but I am positive that the vast majority are completely clueless and won't even know any of the players outside the top 10 (even less for the women!). I'm not complaining because this I now realise, is where I am going to find great value. It just amuses me to see half the Betfair football forum shift their inept banter over to the tennis forum for two weeks. When you see what gets written there by regular punters, it gives you real hope for some easy pickings.

A classic example of this cluelessness, was last year's Wimbledon final. Djokovic was world number one by that time and had beaten his opponent, Nadal, on all four separate occassions in 2011 already. Yet somehow, the market priced Nadal up as clear odds on favourite. It made absolutely no sense to me and the value was proven by a comfortable win for the Serb. But I did nothing. I wasn't trading with any value at the time and the opportunity was not taken. The only reason I can fathom why Nadal was priced so low, was because most people didn't know much about Djokovic and went with what they knew. This year however, will by my first Grand Slam where I trade with a value-seeking approach and I will be licking my lips at those sort of mistakes this coming fortnight.

Still, don't want to get too cocky. My Grand Slam results have tended to be very disappointing in past years. I have always rushed into them like a bull in a china shop, taking on too many games at once as I gorge myself on the feast of matches in-play. I've always set my expectations too high simply because it's a major tournament and so tried to force things too much - not this year.

I realise now that there isn't any reason for me to get any more excited about a Grand Slam than a 250 tour event. When you have 3 or 4 tournaments on at the same time in an average tennis week, it means there are actually just as many, if not more opportunities to make money in any of the other 44 weeks of the year (bar the off-season). I know a lot of traders will only play the Grand Slams and the big Masters / Premier events but I have never understood this. I don't suddenly do any worse just because less of the top players are involved. If you put in the effort to research your players, it makes very little difference to your chances of making money - the same opportunities arise in the 250s as in the Grand Slams, it's just with a (partially) different set of players.

So this year, I will not be making a big fuss over the Grand Slams. For me, they are no different to any other week on the tour - except this year, I won't be one of the mug punters for a change!

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 20, Italy's Flavia Pennetta:

Australian Open

2012-01-15T23:30:00.000Z

Ever since I tipped a few players up at Wimbledon last year who did really well (most notably Tamira Paszek) but didn't place any money on them, I decided to stop any form of picking winners on this blog. It pissed me off too much, especially as my trading was terrible! But I may well take a look at the 'winner' market for this year's grand slams, so here are my thoughts on the Australian Open.

With the men, I am going for Novak Djokovic to defend his title. He hasn't played a tournament this year, preferring to save himself for the Australian Open, but he did play an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi at the end of December. He beat Gael Monfils in 3 sets but was playing as if it was an exhibition i.e. had a good laugh and a joke with the irrepressible showman Monfils. But he stepped it up in set 3 and looked strong. Considering he finished 2011 in poor form, there was no sign of that at all, as he demolished Roger Federer (though he was seemingly disinterested) dropping just 3 games. But trust me when I say that Federer at his best would not have won that match. Djokovic showed commanding brilliance and was taking it deadly seriously. The same happened in the final against David Ferrer and although he would expect to win, Ferrer had beaten Nadal and was at the top of his game. I saw enough from those last 2 games to see that he is back to the level that saw him go 42 games unbeaten last year.

Nadal looks out of sorts and I really think he has been scarred mentally by those losses to Novak last year - don't see him winning. Federer will I'm sure pick up his game, as he's not started the year brilliantly but Murray will probably be Novak's closest rival for the title and I'd go for Tsonga as an outsider. He is now the top challenger to break into that established 'big four' and let there be no doubt, he's playing well enough for it to happen this year. Also keep an eye on Bernard Tomic, the immensely gifted home talent who raises his game in the big tournaments. He is a star in the making and this could be just the time and just the stage to take out some big scalps.

Of the big names for the women, Williams and Sharapova have not played enough games in my opinion, whilst Clijsters is almost certain to aggravate an injury at some point. She does love Australia and the fans there are obsessed with her, which may push her through in tight matches, so if she can stay fit, you never know. As always, Wozniacki can be ruled out straight away! Stosur looks appallingly bad right now. I did fancy Kvitova for the women, though she was well beaten in the end by Li Na in Sydney this week. The Chinese-woman therefore has to be in with a chance as it will have lifted her confidence, which has suffered for a long time. Azarenka will obviously be a threat having just beaten Li in the Sydney final and I think she'll breeze through what looks an easy quarter of the draw.

Svetlana Kuznetsova is my dark horse and yes, I think she can win the whole thing. I watched her in Auckland and she was frighteningly good. I backed her at over 100 as soon as I saw her first couple of matches. She came in to 60 though has drifted out to 80 now but she dropped out of Sydney with heat illness. She spanked Zvonareva the match before that and was actually feeling ill even then. She just looks fitter and mentally much stronger, more aggressive and dominant. With her talent, she should be top 5 easily and it's her head that has let her down in recent years. It's not an issue judging from her start to 2012. Unfortunately, there are some big names in the Russian's quarter of the draw and she may have some long, tough battles on her hands.

Radwanska can always cause an upset and Schiavone loves playing these big events but they are not going to win. Zvonareva has been out of sorts for a long time now. Bartoli is playing well but I think she'll fall short, especially with her fitness levels in the heat. Kaia Kanepi is one player who has improved her fitness massively and is playing lights-out tennis right now. She would be my big outsider to watch, as she can upset anyone in her current form.

I would go for Kvitova, Azarenka or Kuznetsova to win. Vika looks a certainty for the semi finals, so I'd give her the edge with the easier draw.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 8, Poland's Agnieszka Radwanska:

The Apathetic Masses

2012-01-15T00:01:00.000Z

In the battle to create some sort of competitor to Betunfair, I am now going to show you just what we are up against. I was reliably informed by Cassini from 'Green All Over', that the US College Football (that's the game that's not really got anything to do with kicking a ball, for those who aren't sure) Final was untradeable on Betunfair due to the down-time last Tuesday morning GMT. On Monday evening, I saw a tweet from a bloke on Twitter, complaining that he would not be able to bet on that match because of the planned maintenance. After a quick check on Betdaq to find the match (Alabama v LSU), I replied to him that it was going in-play on the purple place. He graciously thanked me.

Now that doesn't seem like much but it is no exaggeration to say that this man spends more time on Twitter chatting about gambling than any other of the 800+ people I follow / are following me. I don't think I have ever logged on and NOT seen this bloke posting up bets. He's constantly engaged in conversation about every single sport going. I'm not having a go (in fact, he comes across as a really nice guy - please don't unfollow me!) but the fact that this particular gambling afficianado had no idea that this game he wanted to bet on was on Betdaq (with over £20,000 matched on it), was astonishing. It shows just what Betdaq are up against when it comes to getting the masses of small fish punters to switch betting exchanges.

He obviously knew about Betdaq, yet hadn't even considered that he could simply place his bet (with lower commission) on another exchange. Or maybe he HAD considered it but then couldn't be bothered to even check the availability of a market for the match, which is even worse because that is just laziness as opposed to lack of knowledge. I mentioned apathy in my previous post and I think that's part of the problem here. If this bettor, of all bettors, cannot be arsed to even look elsewhere than Betunfair (deciding instead to not trade it at all and moan), then how on Earth are Betdaq ever going to catch up?

There was more matched pre-match on this frat boy 'football' game, than in all the tennis matches starting at midnight on Monday, combined; even after they'd finished in-play! I would be interested to know what Betunfair would have seen matched for this game but I'm guessing very few bothered to take the opportunity to move their money to Betdaq, judging from the poor in-play liquidity. It begs the question; do most of the people on Betunfair even care about leaving? Does higher commission actually bother them? Do they think they will ever do well enough to hit the PC charge? And do most of those who moan about Betdaq's liquidity and getting shafted by Betfair, actually do anything pro-active to change the status quo? I'm starting to think the answer is 'no' on all counts.

It's certainly dawned on me that I am wasting my time 'crusading' (a term I hate because really, all I'm trying to do is inform a few people) when I need to just look after myself. I do love a revolution though, what can I say, it's in my nature! I like pro-activity and positivity and I hate apathy and negativity - they get you nowhere in life.

Off-Court Beauty - world number 258 (has slipped from a top 30 spot due to long-term injury) Agnes Szavay of Hungary:

Betdaq: What Next?

2012-01-14T01:50:00.000Z

My own experiences with Betdaq tennis trading, started back in July 2011. If anyone has any doubts that Betdaq cannot attract traders over, read this blog post from July and check out the screenshots. I wrote on the blog that liquidity was excellent following the premium charge rate increase, downloaded all available API software and tried to trade matches (some of which had MORE liquidity than on Betfair). Unfortunately, I was doing badly at the time and only had a small amount of funds that I could transfer to Betdaq. I lost all that very quickly! But I had no problem getting matched. I tried again a few weeks later with a re-loaded bank but my issue was that trading using the free software available then, felt very cumbersome and it made trading too difficult. The Betdaq Jinx, continued! Basically, I was hamstrung until something more intuitive came out - Geek's Toy for Betdaq.

In fact, until last Tuesday night/morning (when I layed Cibulkova at 2-0 in set 3 in my only trade) I had lost every single trade I'd made on Betdaq! So now that I have software I can trade comfortably with, it's time to look at the alternative again. Despite the miserable liquidity on Tuesday, I'm fairly confident the latter stages at least, of the Australian Open will have strong liquidity and once the tour moves back to Europe in February, I think we might see an upsurge in the number of people trading. These next few weeks will perhaps give a greater indication of where Betdaq is at with tennis and I will be keenly reporting my experiences on the Purple Place and seeing if I can do what Robin Hood (of yesterday's post) said we should try.

However, I still know that Tuesday was a missed opportunity. People ARE staying up late to trade the tennis on Betfair with multi-millions being matched, so why not on Betdaq, even when there is no way of trading on Betfair? Apathy? Laziness? Not enough small fish to take advantage of? Probably a bit of everything.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 255 (ex-top 30) Alona Bondarenko of the Ukraine.

Robin Hood to the Rescue?

2012-01-13T00:20:00.001Z

I wanted to share with you a comment left here by Robin Hood (an apt name, considering he is taking from Betfair to give to Betdaq!), which is real food for thought:

"Here's a little story about my trading in Betdaq. 1st week after BF (Betfair) introduced the new PC, Betdaq markets were full with money. After that week the markets were suddenly empty again, but then it started to grow again - slow but steady improvements. I think late in August someone was working on a bot (don't know if it was a courtsider or just a bot copying BF odds) and this attracted more traders/punters.

Then came the US Open and as soon as there was only 1 match on at a time, the liquidity improved rapidly - if i remember correctly in the semis or even QF on a women's match, someone was playing around with stakes over 500k Euros. Besides him there were also courtsiders and regular traders who added their money to the market. This high liquidity continued till the end of 2011. Although after the US Open the markets looked dry, I was able to get matched. I don't care for horse racing or football markets, but tennis was the sport that improved quite rapidly over at Betdaq.

Protip: if there isn't any money in the market that doesn't mean you won't get matched - offer your money at a good price and some bot/bots will instantly take your offer.

For example, lets take a look at the last tournament in St.Petersburg. Matches started at a reasonable time 12:00 (GMT +2), Bet365 offered video feed with bad quality, but Betdaq didn't put the "TV" at the end of market name (markets with TV usually have high liquidity). I'm no expert but the tournament was crap, but i had no problem trading those markets. Yes, it was hard to get matched at the exact odds as Betfair, but the markets were tradeable.

Probably people don't know what to do when they see an empty ladder, because in Betfair you have everything in front of you. Be a market maker (lower commission) not a market taker and you'll be fine.

I hope that this somehow explained how i saw the liquidity in Betdaq last year."

If Robin Hood is right, then it won't really matter if there are gaps in the market, as long as someone (or something!) is taking our bet. It's worth a try, possibly during the Australian Open, where I would expect liquidity to be better than it has been this week. And to be honest, I'm done trying to convince others to move over and am just going to do what I can to try and make money for myself.

It does seem like a bit of a gamble though. First of all, you'd better know your stuff if you are going to start putting up prices. Anyone who doesn't know about value and how to price up a market is doomed. Also, there is no guarantee that you will definitely be matched, so what if you are left hanging when trying to trade out of the market? Often on Betfair, we are relying on a bunch of people who are panicking, being greedy or simply clueless about trading in order to get us our green or to help us cut our losses short. Without those people, is our money going to be taken at the odds we want? Are we just gonna get picked off by a bot or a court-sider if we stay in the market a fraction too soon? I don't think it's just a case of people not knowing what to do with a gappy / quiet market, I think that they are scared of what might happen if they do get involved, especially when they are small fish with a small bank.

Plus Robin Hood says 'offer your money at good odds and some bots will instantly take your money' - good odds for who? You or them?! I presume he means good odds for you because otherwise, you aren't trading with value but if the odds you are offering are not great value, why would they be taken by a bot? I'm a bit confused by that but maybe Robin Hood can explain some more.

Thanks to Robin Hood for the great comment.

OFF-COURT BEAUTY: World number 67, Argentina's Gisela Dulko

Let's Get a Few Things Straight

2012-01-12T00:15:00.006Z

I feel I need to clarify a few things about the shambles that was 'Betdaq Day', which some people seem to find very hard to grasp.

1. Some are saying that it was 'silly' or 'too optimistic' to expect Betdaq to have good liquidity on a night that was early in the week, didn't include a 'major' tennis tournament and a programme scheduled to run through the early hours of the morning GMT.

a) Betfair had MILLIONS of pounds being traded THE DAY BEFORE 'Betdaq Day', on a Monday, in the exact same tournaments (one of which was a Premier WTA event, one of the biggest of the year). This wasn't on just one game, it was spread over tens of games, with the televised ones with the bigger names attracting hundreds of thousands of matched bets. This happened EVERY DAY in January. I'm not sure where this myth has come from that everyone goes to bed and doesn't trade during the Australian swing, it's absolute bullshit! There may be less people trading than if the games were on during the daylight hours GMT but the way some people are commenting, you'd think it was a ghost town! I've traded on matches between 12 and 7am GMT every day since January 2nd and never had a problem getting matched. Matches at 4am have had enough liquidity to get thousands matched, if you so wish.

I'm currently watching Cirstea v Kerber (in Hobart, the smallest event of the week) and there is already £100K matched and only 5 mins have been played. £20K was matched in the time I wrote that last sentence and there are 2 other men's matches in-play at the same time. So please, let's drop all this crap about late night low liquidity. **Almost exactly £1 million was traded on the following match from Hobart, Gajdosova v Barthel and that didn't finish till after 4am GMT. Li v Kvitova started after 4am and has traded OVER £1 million halfway through set 2**

b) The whole idea behind 'Betdaq Day', was that as many people as possible who were trading those millions on the Monday, should switch for the one night to Betdaq, during Betfair down-time. How difficult is that to do? Answer: it isn't! But for whatever reason, people didn't. If they HAD, then obviously, the markets would have had the same millions being matched as on Betfair. That's not even up for debate, it's a FACT. Is that so hard to understand? It didn't even require everyone to switch. If just half of those people who traded on Betfair on Monday had put their money up on Betdaq the next day, we'd have seen a good night's liquidity.

2. 'Betdaq can never catch up with Betfair' - maybe not but again, people are missing the point. We don't NEED them to catch up, over-take or challenge Betfair for number 1. We just need more liquidity, even half of what Betfair has would do the trick. And if you think that can't be done, well you are wrong again. Back in July and August, there was actually MORE liquidity in several tennis matches on Betdaq! This proves that it can happen but for it to happen again and be sustained, it needs more people to be proactive and that specifically includes all the big players who make the markets and Betdaq themselves. If they aren't prepared to put their money up, then how can they expect all us small fish to follow suit?

3. And finally, let's just get one more thing straight; I am not a 'big player'. I don't pay the premium charge. I don't work for Betdaq (but if I did, you can be damn sure I'd be trying a lot harder than they appear to be to bring in new custom!). I write what I write about making the switch because I don't like the way Betfair operate these days and know that you will get a fairer deal on Betdaq, however big or small a player you are. I don't expect to make any sort of major difference to the markets whatsoever by what I post on this little blog. I expected people to be savvy enough to have made the switch to Betdaq on Tuesday regardless of anything I wrote. Well, I was wrong.

But that doesn't mean if you called what happened correctly, that you should be feeling smug. You are in the same position you were before - getting shafted or on the way to getting shafted, for up to 60% of your winnings. And if you aren't bothered enough about that happening to have even considered moving to Betdaq, then it probably means you don't believe you will ever be successful on Betfair. And if that's the case, then I can guarantee, you never will be.

Off-Court Beauty: World number 50, Russia's Elena Vesnina:

Apparently, I'm Loaded

2012-01-11T00:30:00.001Z

Yesterday's post about 'Betdaq Day' (or lack of), has created more responses than any post I've ever made on Centre Court Trading. By far the strangest of the lot was from NICK:

Sultan, I put some money pre-match and had £11 matched. I then looked in play and where was the money? Nowhere to be seen. Did you and the likes of tradeshark put any money in there? I didn't see much evidence that you did. Needless to say after 15 minutes of waiting just like everyone else I gave up and went to bed. And where were Betdaq pushing this? Nowhere! Nice idea but wrong time wrong place in this instance. There will be other opportunities but we might be waiting for some time yet.

Well, I don't really see what me or Trade Shark (the only two people who actually made any real effort to get the word out about trying out Betdaq) did, has anything to do with anything. 'Evidence'? What was Nick expecting to spot in the mammoth 15 minutes he spent somehow keeping tabs on all 7 match markets at once? Who does Nick think we are, Russian Mafia-affiliated market-makers? Asian syndicates with cash to burn? Cassini? I didn't realise I was expected to suddenly provide all of Betdaq's liquidity!

And what does Nick want, a pat on the back for offering up £11? Well done mate, you've put us all to shame! He couldn't even be bothered to wait more than a quarter of an hour before giving up (most money came in towards the end of the matches at low odds, so Nick is wrong when he says everyone gave up as early as he did) and never offered anything in-play, where it really matters. Anyone can stick up a few quid pre-match - there were thousands waiting to be matched before some of those games started.

I waited a damn sight longer than Nick monitoring the markets, so how would he know what I or Trade Shark or anyone else did? I don't place bets pre-match and I'm not going to offer anything unless I find an opportunity, am I? As it goes, I did actually put some cash up AND I got matched AND I made profit. I stayed watching the markets for over 3 hours (watched the Cibulkova-Wozniacki game)- so I waited longer AND (though it was only £50) put up more money in-play AND made a much bigger effort to alert people to Betdaq than Nick. That is unless he has a secret blog I don't know about where he's been shouting about moving to Betdaq all week.

Really not sure what Nick is getting at with this post. We all want the same thing here, it's just that some of us go around in a positive manner trying to be proactive and others start moaning at the slightest hint of things not going their way or before they've even tried properly. At least Nick had a (brief) look at Betdaq, which I'm sure is more than can be said for most traders. Will be discussing a much more positive comment tomorrow.

Off-Court Beauty: Canada's little-known world number 313, Heidi El Tabakh:

Pathetic

2012-01-10T01:05:00.001Z

I'm absolutely disgusted at the lack of interest shown by tennis traders in the matches on Betdaq today. I never expected a mass migration or for hundreds of thousands to be matched in-play but what I see before me as I write is worse than I could ever have imagined - it's truly pathetic.

Of the 7 games that kicked off at midnight, only one of them had any tradeable amounts of money at all being circulated. That was Mannarino v Anderson but even then, the gaps between prices were huge and it was barely worth getting involved. When a Premier WTA event match involving Caroline Wozniacki and a top 20 player who beat her in the same tournament last year (Cibulkova), has only a grand matched pre-off and almost zero liquidity during play, you realise just how monumental the chasm is. It's currently 5-5 in set 1 and only 2k has been matched. Betunfair would have seen hundreds of thousands matched on that game, just as the bigger games on last night had.

Where are all the big players? Some big amounts have come into the market at sub 1.2 near the end of the Anderson game but still only 11k has been matched overall as Mannarino serves for the match. They would normally be setting the market (and some of the games looked promising with the amounts available pre-match) but as soon as the matches were turned in-play, all the money disappeared. This was not the case back in July and August following the introduction of the super premium charge. Every televised game had decent liquidity and you could at least be certain you'd get matched most of the time. But if the big fish can't be bothered (and let's face it, they are the ones most affected and should be making the biggest effort to put prices up today) then we may as well all just pull down our pants, bend over and beg Betunfair to continue buggering us.

The whole opportunity has ended up as a joke and Betunfair must be pissing themselves. I feel like an idiot for even attempting to drum up interest. Why did I bother when Betdaq themselves don't appear to have done anything whatsoever to incentivise or even give people a nudge in their direction specifically during this down-time? Apathy will always be the biggest killer of change and I honestly feel that most people just don't care. If you at least tried and gave Betdaq a look today, give yourself a pat on the back. If you didn't even bother, then you should be ashamed and you now have no right to ever moan about the premium charge or any of Betunfairs many other misdemeanours ever again.

Our only hope now is that Ladbrokes get into bed with The Daq - cos that now appears the only way we'll ever be able to stop getting screwed by Betunfair.

Off-Court Beauty: just to cheer me up, here's Russia's world number 125 Anastasia Pivovarova:

Tennis Traders Unite!

2012-01-08T19:10:00.004Z

On Tuesday at 00.01 GMT, me and all my fellow tennis traders have a unique opportunity. We can change the face of tennis on the betting exchanges. I know that some of you will be sitting there thinking 'It won't happen' but I say that it is exactly that sort of negative attitude that has us in the position we are in today, whereby we are getting shafted for up to 60% of our hard-earned profit.

OK, I can understand that people have been reluctant to be the first to make the switch to Betdaq and put up prices to set markets - too much effort for not enough reward, right? Especially when you are just a small fish, with a small bank, who isn't likely to hit the PC for years.

But now, you've been given an ultimatum by Betfair - give up almost a whole day's tennis trading (8 hours at least and who is to say it won't go on for longer) or go elsewhere. They think you won't be going anywhere, which is exactly why they've chosen to do this 'essential maintenance' directly through the tennis schedule. Do you think they would plan this outage during a busy horse racing afternoon or a couple of Premier League matches? Hell no! No other sport is going to be affected quite as badly as tennis, which shows just how much disregard is being shown towards us.

However you look at it, this does have one massive advantage for all us tennis traders - a window of opportunity. As usual, Betdaq don't appear to have cottoned onto this opening (can't see any promotion at all on their site regarding tennis on Tuesday - they should have me on their marketing team!), so it's up to us to make a difference. But we can be the first sport to really tip the balance in Betdaq's favour. All we have to do is make a small effort and try out Betdaq for a few hours on Tuesday morning. If liquidity looks good (and it WILL look good if EVERYONE who would normally have traded on Betunfair that night, makes the move) then it's a case of keeping things as they are - stay on Betdaq.

It really is that simple. But it won't work unless everyone (big and small players) make the effort. Us tennis traders can be heroes this Tuesday January 11th - BETDAQ DAY. Don't sit there and do nothing, like a mug.

Off-court Beauty: world number 18 Dominica Cibulkova of Slovakia:

Betdaq Day

2012-01-07T08:50:00.009Z

1. Deposit money into moth-ridden Betdaq account

2. Download newly released Geeks Toy for Betdaq

3. Tuesday 10th January from 00.01 GMT, start trading on Betdaq as Betfair unavailable

4. Keep trading on Betdaq for 3% commission and no Premium Charge

5. Stop moaning about lack of liquidity on Betdaq!

It's so simple, even a mug punter can do it - and I know you aren't one of them, are you?!

No more 'Strong Is Beautiful' photos left (the final one is currently the background to the blog, the recently retired Elena Dementieva of Russia), so thought I'd start a new photo feature: Off-Court Beauties. You may have noticed, if you are as obsessed with female tennis players as I am, that most of our WTA stars look a lot more beautiful away from the tennis court.

Not surprising really; it's hard to look glamorous with your hair scraped back, no make-up, sweating profusely under a baseball cap! But many of the girls are unrecognisable off-court and so I thought it would be nice to show a few of their more flattering poses, starting today with Bulgarian world number 46, Tsvetana Pironkova:

Betdaq - The Time Has Come

2012-01-05T09:00:00.000Z

Roll up, roll up, all tennis traders! The time has come to spend at least one full day / night trading entirely on Betdaq. As you may be aware, Betunfair have chosen Tuesday January 10th from 00.00 - 10.00 GMT, to conduct 'essential planned site maintenance'. This basically means the entire day's tennis programme (all matches from Sydney, Hobart and Auckland) will be unavailable - nice work yet again from everyone's favourite betting emporium.

Still, it may just be a blessing in disguise. The Geek's Toy is now available for Betdaq and it's exactly the same as the Betunfair version, so there is no excuse left now folks - Tuesday January 10th simply HAS to be Betdaq Day for any sane-minded tennis trader. I would urge you all to simply keep your money over on the Purple Place on Wednesday 11th, which will then mean there is no need whatsoever for anyone to ever return to Old Blue. Imagine that! I mean, think about it. Why would anyone even consider moving their bank back over once everyone has already moved? This shouldn't just be Betdaq Day, it should be Betdaq YEAR! The chance to finally make the switch we've nearly all been wanting to make is now here, not only for Wednesday but FOREVER.

What's the betting half of all traders just lazily take the day off and the other half end up moving back to the lover who beats them - 1.01? It's up to you, fellow tennis traders - let's hand out a gubbing! Now is the time to make the switch or else keep your tongue sheethed forever about Betdaq's 'poor liquidity'. Don't be a mug. I'll see you on Tuesday and beyond, on Purple.

Here's world number 29, Russia's Nadia Petrova:

Rusty Ladders

2012-01-04T07:15:00.000Z

My first few days of trading after over a month's break have been a bit of a struggle. There's no doubt I'm suffering from rustiness, which is not a great surprise after so long without a single trade. I've found myself reverting to old bad habits, which shows that I still have a lot of work to do in order to fully ingrain all those new techniques which I was learning towards the end of last season.

One of my New Year's trading resolutions was to be more patient and this has been the biggest issue, yet again. I've jumped into a few situations where it would've been more profitable to have kept my powder dry and wait for a better opportunity. Even though I've made mistakes, I feel as though I just need a few more days to get back in the swing of things, get used to my schedule and get used to implementing things correctly, and I will be fine.

Despite these issues, I have to say that I have never felt more in-tune with the markets. I have read almost every game superbly but unfortunately, the little devil on my left shoulder has shouted more fiercely than the angel on my right shoulder! As such, I've made some inexplicable decisions which have contradicted my gut-feeling. Like I say, it's just those last remnants of the old approach, clinging onto my subconscious. Only practice, practice and more practice, will eventually get me back doing the rights things. Overall though, I have to say it's good to be back on the ladders and I'm really looking forward to this season.

Here's world number 37, Israel's Shahar Pe'er:

New Year's Resolutions

2012-01-01T19:00:00.000Z

I finished 2011 with my 'Low-lights' of the year but want to start 2012 positively, with a couple of highlights from my first year of blogging. I struggled badly over the summer and was forced to make drastic changes to my entire approach. It turned out to be the best thing that could have happened. I finally found a style that suited my personality, fully grasped the concept of value and over-came my issues with focus, frustration and redding-up. These two posts were made just when trading finally began to click for me in all aspects:

'Right Brain Trading'

The Perfect 24 Hours

We should always be striving to improve as traders though, so my New Year trading resolutions are as follows:

1. Continue to trade only when I feel there is value
2. Trade without any monetary goals or time-limits
3. Continue not to look at my P&L until the end of each week
4. Move as much as possible over to Betdaq once the Geek's Toy purple is released
5. Take time off from trading more often, when required
6. Continue to work on keeping those frustration levels low
7. Eradicate my impatience

If I manage not to break those resolutions, 2012 might just be my year. Here's world number 68, Russia's Alisa Kleybanova (yes, that is actually her - amazing what make -up can do these days! She has this as her Twitter profile photo, so clearly agrees!):

Facing Truths

2011-12-31T12:33:00.003Z

'Facing Truths'

This post from late March (my final 2011 low-light) was done when I was at the lowest point of my entire tennis trading life. It summarizes how awful I felt both physically and emotionally. It pains me even now to think what I put myself through. But it did force me to make some much needed changes and was the start of a massive up-turn in fortune. That up-turn only lasted a couple of months but it kept me in the game until September, which was when I had my biggest Eureka moment.

Happy New Year everyone, thanks for reading and good luck with your trading for 2012! Here's world number 92 the UK's upcoming star Heather Watson, to see you into the new year:

On The Precipice

2011-12-30T12:50:00.000Z

'On The Precipice'

This post was when it was almost all over for me after just a couple of weeks of blogging. My bank was very nearly demolished but I just managed to luckily stay in the game. Mentally however, I was completely shot by this stage.

Looking back, I cannot believe how easily I lost my head and would start getting upset and chasing at the first sign of a game turning against me. I simply had no control over my emotions and this affected my discipline.

At the time, I wrote that I didn't think there was anything more I could change but I was very, very wrong! Over the next few months, I gradually, slowly realised that my whole approach was wrong and I was missing many of the aspects vital to successful trading. The way I traded in this post seems like it was from another life-time!

Here's world number 15 Sabine Lisicki of Germany:

Year Zero

2011-12-29T13:10:00.001Z

'Year Zero'

Oh boy, I remember that post well! Another 2011 low-light, this was where I had reached my wit's end and was seriously considering giving up. Year Zero was supposed to be the start of one last attempt to sort out my horrible gambler's mentality and I pinpointed that impatience was my biggest enemy.

Unfortunately, it was many months before all of the ideas behind 'Year Zero' actually filtered through. Much of that is because I never overcame my terrible impatience, which was mostly due to the pressure I was under to make money. That pressure has now been reduced and I hope to show in 2012 that slow and steady will win the race.

Here's world number 88 (should be much higher with her talent), Alize Cornet of France:

Horror Show

2011-12-28T17:49:00.003Z

'Horror Show'

The second of my '2011 Low-lights' and it really was that bad a day! Again, from my very first week, this post shows how far away I was from being a disciplined trader, with a couple of terribly unprofessional mistakes and my biggest loss of the entire year........

2011 Low-lights

2011-12-27T12:45:00.000Z

I occasionally read back through my old posts to see how much I have progressed (or not, as the case may be) with my trading. This was the original reason that I started this blog, to record and to learn and hopefully improve. I thought I would pick out a few of those posts from earlier in the year, to end 2011 and to show some of you who will only be familiar with my recent interviews and articles, just what the blog was all about. I'm calling them my 2011 low-lights - when you read them, you'll see why 'highlights' is not really a relevant term..........

My first choice for my low-lights of the year comes from my very first week of blogging:

'How NOT to Trade'

The title says it all really! It's a classic example of chasing and letting emotions take control. Looking back at this makes me wince. But it also shows how I have progressed because back then, I knew I was taking prices that were poor value but carried on regardless - something I would never do now. I was still blinkered to the fact that my strategy wasn't workable long-term because I wasn't trading with any concept of value. I also was still far too slack regarding professionalism and would now never test out new ideas or stop to do other tasks at the risk of my bank. And of course, my anger issues have now been resolved!

Here's world number 14, Serbia's Jelena Jankovic:

2012 ATP Schedule

2011-12-26T12:25:00.002Z

I wrote about the debate over the length of the men's tennis season in the post 'Moaning Tennis Players' recently and the schedule for 2012 has just been released. Two weeks have effectively been lopped off the calender, which means 2 less weeks to make money - I don't think any full-time tennis trader can be happy with that.

What the ATP have done is to move the St Petersburg and Vienna tournaments (which were both in the same week in October) back to earlier in the calendar. This now means Vienna will be competing with Moscow and Stockholm, (which I'm sure the organisers will be pretty pissed off about) whilst St Petersburg goes back a whole month to compete with Metz. The second week that's been culled was the spare one between Paris and the ATP finals, currently in London, which was an obvious move. So I suppose it's only one less week of actual tennis to trade.

Finishing the season in early November is gonna leave a long gap till the re-start now - guess I'll just have to up my game! I still think it's daft to have Indian Wells and Miami as the only 2 tournaments in the whole of March. Some of the clay court tournaments have been moved around but otherwise the changes are minimal and I can't complain too much.

I will officially be back trading on the 29th for the start of the 6 man exhibition tournament in Abu Dhabi, which is followed immediately by the Hopman Cup, Chennai, Dubai, Auckland and Brisbane - it's gonna be a busy first week of 2012!

Here's world number 64, Canada's Rebecca Marino:

Strong Is Beautiful Videos

2011-12-22T15:10:00.002Z

All this talk about value has left me exhausted this week! I'm done with it now, so time to take things down a notch as we go into Christmas and here is my gift to all of you! As you'll have noticed, I've been sharing with you the best photos from the new WTA advertising campaign 'Strong Is Beautiful'. This photoshoot was actually nothing to do with the WTA originally. It was produced by the New York Times in 2010, who shot some of the world's top female players as part of a piece entitled 'The Beauty of the Power Game'. The WTA later adopted the images, presumably for a large wedge of cash! The still pics are fabulous but it's the original videos that are most striking, so here they are for your perusal, in super-slow-motion:

New York Times Photoshoot Videos

And the article that accompanied it:

'How Power Has Transformed Women's Tennis'

And here's another Christmas treat, world number 60, Romania's Sorana Cirstea:

Happy Christmas!

Value Part Deux

2011-12-21T14:31:00.002Z

The value debate rages on this week on the blogosphere! BubblesBrian from 'A Gambler's Life For Me' admits that he doesn't understand the concept of value, even going so far as to say he thinks it may be a non-existent concept made up by the bookies! He's now the 3rd blogger revealed recently on 'Centre Court Trading' as not fully grasping the concept, which maybe goes to show that this is far more common than I thought. So I wanted to make one final value-specific post, today.

What I would like to add is this; if you look at the successful long-term pros who I have interviewed (TradeShark, Cassini, Mark Iverson) they ALL talk about taking value on their blogs, as does Peter Webb in his excellent interview on 'Sports Trading Life' and indeed, the author of 'Sports Trading Life' himself. If you seriously think these guys are wrong and you are right, then all I can say is 'good luck to you - you'll need it!'.

Bubbles Brian also says:

I mean if let’s say the team at the top of the premiership plays the lowest team in the lowest league then surely the top team should win and the odds will show this. Yet there are people who won’t take this bet just because its not value, or on the flip side they will bet on the losing team just because it represents value, almost guaranteeing a losing bet

He says that you are 'almost guaranteeing a losing bet' but in reality, it doesn't matter because your risk will be minuscule and the potential gains will wipe out several of those minuscule losses with one winning bet. Plus, are you telling me those lesser sides never win? Of course they do! Depending on your strategy, you may not even need them to win. They may only need to draw or to take the lead or to stay at 0-0 for a while, for you to profit. It's all about risk-reward ratios and probability but what Brian is doing is trying to predict the match, when he should be thinking more about what the market could do.

As he also says, the odds will show that the top team should win - yes, but that doesn't mean those odds represent the correct odds for that team to win. You have to think long term. His analysis shows that he is not thinking about the long term effect of backing sides at poor prices.

How do you know that the price you are taking is value? That is all down to experience of watching and analysing the markets. For example, I know instantly when a price in a tennis match looks like good value because I have studied those markets for years and can work out the probability of a particular event happening based on instinct and intuition. I see patterns emerging that I recognise and these are based on a variety of factors, the key ones being the players themselves and how they tend to perform and the market and how the prices tend to move. Remember, the market fluctuations are driven by human emotions and reactions to what is happening in the game. If you can spot over-reactions, then you can spot the value. You won't get it right every time, you may not even get it right MOST of the time but that doesn't matter because your risk-reward ratio should ensure that, in the long run, you will come out on top.

Finally, I am reminded of a quote which is one I repeat constantly whenever I trade:

"Amateurs look for challenges; professionals look for easy trades. Losers get high from the action; the pros look for the best odds."

Dr Alexander Elder from 'Come into my Trading Room'

Here's world number 104 (she's had a lot of illness and injuries recently) America's Venus Williams:

Value

2011-12-20T15:15:00.000Z

I'd actually written this post originally 3 weeks ago and was not going to bother putting it on the blog. But today, I read a post by Dave on 'Betfair Football Trading - the Highs and Lows'(an excellent blog, by the way), which was discussing one of the answers from my interview with Cassini from 'Green All Over'. Cassini has since responded with his own post on the subject. Please take a look at both blog posts, which discuss whether value is relevant in the unders/overs scalping market. I also posted a comment on the Betfair Football Trading blog, which ended up much longer than I'd intended! It prompted me to return to this original piece which I'd written:

I'm not going to go off on a boring explanation as to what value is. Most of you will already be aware of what it means in regards to trading. But I can guarantee that some people that read this won't. Having spent a lot of time recently on Twitter and watched people posting up their bets, it becomes very obvious that it's not just a small number of people who have no idea about value. I don't want to sound patronising in any way because I am now going to admit something - I have only been trading with value for about 3 months *hangs head in shame*.

Don't get me wrong, I've known about value for years but like many, I was one of those who didn't think it really mattered as long as I could win more than I lost. As far as I was concerned, as long as I wasn't taking bad prices (i.e. if the price was roughly what I felt to be correct) then I wasn't bothered. But this year, I started to understand the concept a little better. The problem was, I didn't know how to apply value to the tennis markets. Then came the Betunfair Premium Charge.

The changes this made to the tennis markets, with less money around from the big-players, forced me to take a look at the way I was trading. I wasn't getting matched as often and found it difficult to get wins. In the back of my mind, I had been wondering for a while whether I was doing the right things. I had been looking at different ways to trade back in March, during my really bad spell, and I went back to those ideas and found a better way to make them work. Things started to click in September as it finally dawned on me; I knew where the value was and had done for ages, I just didn't have the guts to go for it.

Now, I never place a bet unless I feel there is some value in it. It took me a couple of months to get used to trading this way. It's not easy after years of just taking any price. But as someone who was always baffled by all the talk about value in the past, I can now also say that if you are reading this and you are not placing trades which are based on good value, then you are probably gambling.

I'm not being critical or trying to sound like an expert, far from it. I don't think anyone who just takes any price is stupid or ignorant or doesn't know anything about trading. I certainly was not stupid or ignorant and I knew the tennis markets like the back of my hand! But I just didn't know how to apply the concept properly and was also quite fearful of admitting my strategy (which I'd slogged away at for over a year) might be flawed.

I realise now that being able to find value is in fact where my edge lies and I think it is where most successful trader's edges lie. So if you aren't able to find value, don't understand it or feel you don't need it, then you probably need to think again. I don't see how you can win at this game (long term) without it. I just wish I'd made the changes sooner.

I will now post up the comment I made on the Betfair Football Trading blog:

I'm no expert on this subject and cannot reel off the percentages and probability calculations like Cassini but I understand the basics. I'm with Cassini on this one.

The first comment says 'As long as you don't leave it too long'. How can you possibly know how long to leave it? A goal being scored in football is a completely random event, so what are you basing staying in the market on? Surely the only thing you can base it on as a trader, is whether the price is value or not. If it is, you stay in, if it isn't, you come out. Otherwise, you are just guessing and hoping, which is pure gambling.

'It doesn't matter if what you do is value because you will have locked in profit anyways' - not if a goal is scored you won't! In the long run, your losses will almost certainly exceed your wins because you will have been taking prices regardless of probability.

I used to think the same way as Dave and 'anon' but realise now that this is not trading, it's gambling. You can still make profit from it but you'll need a hell of a lot of wins compared to losses and be able to accurately predict which games will have few goals AND predict when those goals are likely to be scored AND hope you are quick enough to get matched before the suspend sign arrives.

By dipping in and out the market when it seems like a goal might be scored, you may as well be betting on a video game where you try to press the button as quickly as you can to get the goalkeeper to dive and save a shot. The only difference is, you get much less than 5 seconds delay in waiting for the keeper to dive in a video game!

Sorry, comment has gotten much longer than expected! Not criticising anyone here, just wanted to add my opinion and to see what others make of it. I'll admit if I'm wrong, maybe I'm missing something but as someone who did used to trade the unders/overs in this way, I stopped because it was really just too risky.

20 December 2011 13:18

I'm completely lost by Dave's reasons and method for scalping the unders market but to me, those reasons make it even more of an unworkable strategy in the long run. Cassini explains this well on his blog. Looking forward to hearing people's thoughts on this. Just to re-iterate, I do not profess to be an expert on the subject and am just throwing ideas out there for discussion.

Here's the world number 8 (and my favourite WTA player) Agniezska Radwanska of Poland:

The 5 Stages to Sports Trading

2011-12-19T12:00:00.000Z

The 5 Stages to Sports Trading

The above link will take you to a brilliant post which I found on the Geek's Toy forum. It is essential reading for any newbie trader but will also fascinate anyone who has been trading for any length of time. It is pretty much spot on as far as I'm concerned, in its evaluation of the stages the typical person goes through in their trading life.

I'm currently on Step 4 - Conscious Competence. I hit that stage within the last couple of months, after 20 months of trading tennis. I did trade football for a couple of years before this and quit, but to be honest, it was more gambling with an exit point (and I didn't bother using it much of the time!).

When I began this blog back in February, I had recently hit stage 3 - The Eureka Moment. In fact, I'd say I had a second Eureka phase in September, which was just as vital and fundamentally shaped the way I trade today. According to this analysis, I am about 6 months away from reaching the final stage, which is very exciting indeed.

The thing that really interests me about these stages is that even if I'd read them when I first started trading, I don't think they would have helped me to skip through any of them. I may have gone through each one a bit quicker but even then, I'm not sure it would have made much difference. I think that's just the way it is with most newbie traders - they don't want to be told that this is hard work, will take a long time to master and that they are unlikely to be the exception to the rule. I know that's what I thought and I don't even consider myself a stubborn person! It's just the way we are as humans I suppose.

Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. Another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.

What may surprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years - and they will think they are safe in the water - but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently

I am part of that remaining 20% and I suppose I'm around that 3 year stage, depending on how much of the football 'trading' you take into account. Will I become part of the 5-10%? I hope you'll join me to find out in a couple of weeks time. In the mean time, here's world number 16, Russia's Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova:

Betdaq Q&A Session

2011-12-16T13:14:00.008Z

OK, we've heard from traders, bloggers, software writers and an ex-Betfair employee. Now it's time to hear from one of the betting exchanges themselves - Betdaq. We all know that they are the second largest exchange but this year has seen Betdaq become a much more serious option for sports traders. With the introduction of Betfair's 40-60% premium charge, many of the 'big players' have moved over to the purple place and liquidity has risen significantly over the past 6 months. Anyone involved in horse racing or tennis trading in particular, will have been impressed with the changes and Betdaq is definitely a viable alternative in those sports. I wanted to know a bit more about Betdaq and perhaps get some answers to a few questions that I know are often debated amongst traders. The answers come from Shane McLaughlin who is the BETDAQ Marketing Director.

What is Betdaq's company ethos?

BETDAQ is the customer facing arm of Global Betting Exchange. Our wider aim is to become the central platform for a worldwide network of betting companies with BETDAQ being the first of those. On a day to day basis our aim is to attract as many customers to BETDAQ as possible and keep growing our liquidity.

Betdaq has been running for 10 years now. What have been the major changes you've seen within the exchange industry since it began?

Everything has changed from the early days, several times over, and it’s very hard to sum up 10 years of change and evolution in a few sentences. A major change for me has been the increased sophistication of customers in terms of the betting strategies and research they rely on to select their bets. Customers do their research and seek out value and that serves BETDAQ very well with our lower commission rates.

It is generally acknowledged amongst the online trading and betting community that most people would have Betdaq as their exchange of choice if liquidity was stronger. What are you currently doing to rectify this?

Lots of people say they will come to BETDAQ when liquidity is stronger but they don’t want to be the ones putting up the offers now. We are tackling the liquidity gap in two ways. API customers, who tend to play in more markets and in greater volumes, are rewarded for making offers and generating liquidity on the exchange and penalised for doing the opposite. Retail players are offered a discounted commission rate to Betfair meaning they are arriving in greater quantities. By attacking the liquidity gap from both sides we are closing it steadily and liquidity in our core markets has grown massively in the last year especially in markets such as horse racing and tennis.

What is the company's attitude towards those who might win consistently?

We prefer to look at whether a member’s activity is positive or negative for the exchange ecosystem as a whole. Positive behaviour such as liquidity generation can be rewarded with lower commission rates and negative behaviour discouraged through higher charges. That’s how we approach our API charging and it has nothing to do with winning or losing.

What are the company's general thoughts about the Betfair Premium Charge and is it something that you would say will never happen on Betdaq?

We love the Betfair Premium Charge as it has given our business a big boost! Seriously though, we believe charging should be about contribution to the exchange as a whole and not about winning or losing.

How has the introduction of the 40-60% Premium Charge affected Betdaq? What has changed since its introduction?

The increased Premium Charge has been very positive for us. Liquidity is up, player numbers are up, and we’ve been inundated with enquiries from people looking to switch their business over. We’re doing everything we can to keep those who bring good business to BETDAQ happy through great customer service, lower commission rates, commission back specials and the recently launched BETDAQ Rewards programme. We’ve also undertaken a major upgrade to our website capacity to accommodate the new business and give us plenty of headroom for growth.

Realistically, how far do you think you are away from being a serious rival to Betfair?

It depends on what you mean by a serious rival. To our members who enjoy lower commission rates and better value, we already are a serious rival. Nearly all the major players and pros use BETDAQ for at least some of their business, and they’re not here out of charity. There are very few punters who will not benefit by being active on both exchanges today. As usual it’s the sharpest people who recognise where the value is first and the rest will follow as our business grows.

I've noticed that Betdaq's advertising campaigns never seem to mention the fact that your commission is far better than Betfair's and you have no extra charges on winners either. Why is this and why is Betdaq not more aggressive in the battle against your biggest rival?

In fairness we ran an advert about our lower commission and no premium charge almost every day in the Racing Post for 7 months. We’ve reached the point where we feel we’ve established ourselves as the lower commission alternative to Betfair with the core exchange user base and we don’t want to be talking about our main competitor in every advert. We have commission back offers, enhanced price multiples, our mobile app and lots of other good stuff to promote too.

Reading comments on websites and forums, there is a feeling amongst many traders that Betdaq haven't done enough to push Betfair down the years and take advantage of the bad customer relationship they've developed. How would you respond to that?

We don’t spend as much on marketing as people might want but that’s a conscious decision to keep commission rates as low as possible. You can’t have the lowest commission rates, the biggest marketing budget and all the added services. Betfair spend tens of millions on marketing and as a result have to charge customers up to 60% of their winnings. We don’t, so we can continue to charge everyone the lowest rate possible.

What are Betdaq's plans and goals for 2012?

We have a lot in the pipeline in 2012. We have a new website interface in development, the launch of our casino and games product, lots of B2B deals going on behind the scenes but most importantly we have a project to greatly expand the number of events and markets that we cover. We’ve never been in better shape and will continue to grow our customer base, market share and liquidity by offering great customer service, lower commission rates, better value, and not penalising winners.

Are there any plans in the pipeline to work with A Geek's Toy Pro to produce a Betdaq version?

Yes we’ve been working with the Geek over the last few months and there will be one available very soon. There are also upgraded versions of BetAngel and Gruss for BETDAQ.

Will you be introducing live video to the website at some stage?

We already have live streaming from At the Races and we constantly look at introducing new video. The issue always come back to cost. Quality content is expensive and if you want to keep commission rates low then you can’t have everything that every customer might want. It’s about finding the right balance.

The tennis markets have improved significantly over the past 5 months. Can you tell us how much roughly the average matched figures have increased by?

It’s about 40% up on last year.

What do you think the future holds for betting exchanges in general?

The next 5 years are going to be interesting as new markets open up. Betfair prefer the approach of entering new markets as Betfair whereas we prefer to look for local partners that have established businesses and locally recognised brands. In markets where there is an embedded monopoly there will be resistance to exchanges as they look to protect local interest. This is where we hope the partnership model will serve us well.

I personally have always preferred the Betdaq website to Betfair and would love to move my entire trading operation over one-day. What would you say to the many people like me who are ready to make that move but are not quite convinced 100% yet?

What are you waiting for? There are instances today where you are costing yourself money by not being on BETDAQ. Take the first step; use us when it makes sense to do so. When our proposition is compelling enough you will move your entire trading over because it makes financial sense. There’s no marketing campaign that can trump putting more money in customer’s pockets. We’re ready when you are.

Thanks very much to Shane for taking the time to answer my questions and also to Ruairi Fitzpatrick, BETDAQ'S Affiliate Manager, for facilitating the Q&A session.
As ever, I'm available on TWITTER and welcome any comments in response to this blog post.

Love

2011-12-14T17:53:00.001Z

Nope, this has nothing to do with tennis scoring. I'm talking about the all-consuming emotion of being in love. Don't go away! This does have some relevance to trading, I promise! Recently, I met a girl and we instantly hit it off. The fact she bears a passing resemblance to German world number 21 Julia Goerges (who regular readers will know I have a slight infatuation with!) certainly helped:

Putting that aside, she also has a great personality and I believe that I am now in love with her. She recently went on holiday for a couple of weeks. Before she went away, I noticed quite alarmingly that my focus dipped significantly whilst I was trading. The reason; I couldn't stop thinking about Julia, eeerrr, I mean Sophie. She was always on my mind (as the Elvis song goes), which is not a good thing when you are trying to concentrate on your entry and exit points. It begs the question; Is being in love bad for your trading?

Whilst she was away, I traded on the ATP finals in London and the Davis Cup Final, and was on-fire! It ended as the best few days of ATP trading I'd done all year. Sophie was 2000 miles away on an African resort. I thought about her much less because I knew I wouldn't be seeing her for a while. She has just returned and I'm looking forward to seeing her again. With no tennis for a few weeks, I won't be able to test my theory but I must admit, I am a tad worried that my mind will start wandering in January. I wrote extensively about a period this summer, where I struggled for weeks and weeks to get any sort of focus when trading. There were a variety of factors behind this (lack of passion for trading, complacency after a good spell, boredom, the need for a proper break) but it was a genuine problem that I just couldn't seem to shake off for longer than a day or two.

Things are different now and I'm much more passionate and motivated since I've changed my trading style but even so, I definitely struggled for a few days when I met Sophie. I now have 3 weeks till the new season starts, which is time for me to spend with Sophie. Hopefully, I'll either find out she has numerous personality flaws which will irritate me to the point where I fall out of love or I'll spend so much time with her that I no longer yearn for her company, therefore she won't clog up my mind during the day so much!

On a more serious note, an important part of trading does involve controlling your emotions and that includes even the good ones. We can become very confident, content and relaxed with our trading at times and those are things that I think you have to be wary of. They can lead to over-confidence, slackness and resting on your laurels rather than constantly striving to move forward and stay professional. I also read a post on the Geek's Toy Forum recently, where a young guy talked about how the feeling of a green screen reminded him "of the "pump" you get when you go the gym, or the sensation of ejaculating into a woman"! Sounds like a terrible thread but in fact raises some very interesting discussion about our emotions when we have an all red or green screen. How we feel when we are collecting those greens can indeed be pleasurable but those emotions can become almost too good.

So maybe it is a serious issue? Maybe being in love could seriously harm your trading? It's a distraction after all and concentration is everything when trading. I know that if I had the choice of being in love or being a successful trader, right now (as a single guy in no rush to meet anyone) I would choose the ladders. Money comes first at the moment. And who knows, if I become hugely successful, maybe I'll be able to take Julia Goerges out on a date! Imagine the trading possibilities if that were to happen.................

Mix Reactions

2011-12-13T17:20:00.006Z

Well I've had a very satisfying weekend! First of all, very pleased to see the reaction to my interview with Scott Ferguson. I wasn't quite expecting the interest it seems to have drummed up, with threads on the Betfair forum (worth reading because there are some excellent comments, which you don't often find on there these days) and a hit rate on Centre Court Trading which has gone through the roof! I have more interviews in the pipeline, so if you are a new reader, stick around cos there should be a lot more interesting stuff to come.

The best thing that happened to me this weekend though, was girl-group Little Mix winning the final of The X-Factor. I mentioned a few weeks ago that I fancied them to win (they were trading at over 3.0 at the time and were not the faves), although I should have taken them higher as had a feeling about them for a couple of weeks before that. Many were saying that a group had never won and girl groups traditionally do very badly and so Little Mix wouldn't win. But with the boy bands exiting early, my theory was that this was the exact reason why they would win. There was a feeling to me, that people wanted a girl group to do well this year and 'end the curse'.

Little Mix were 1.4 going into Saturday's final but I was more than happy to let the trade run. Marcus Collins had been the favourite on the exchanges up until the penultimate week but I knew from spending time on fan forums and watching the (admittedly rubbish but excellent information source) spin-off aftermath show 'The Xtra Factor', that it was clearly Little Mix that were getting the attention.

Stars such as David Walliams were coming out in their droves on the ITV 2 show to champion the 4 young girls many weeks before they became faves on the exchanges, whilst host Dermot O'Leary appeared and said it was Little Mix who people stopped to talk to him about most, in the street. Also, the 'Who is your current fave?' poll on the Digital Spy forum, showed Little Mix as forum faves right from the early weeks and had double the amount of votes to Marcus Collins going into the final weekend. Looking at the X-Factor voting percentages for 2011 though, they only came top in 3 of the 9 public voting weeks, so they were clearly under the radar with the actual regular voters but had a strong surge of support in the last 4 weeks.

The win was my second biggest of the year, with just one tennis trade being larger - maybe I'm concentrating on the wrong market?! It has given me a much healthier looking bank to start 2012 with and certainly means I can relax for 2-3 weeks and not bother getting involved with the football (heaven forbid!) in a desperate attempt to alleviate my itchy trading fingers. But trading TV shows is the same as trading any sport; the more time and effort you put into your research, the greater chance you have of knowing more than the rest of the market. Never forget, you are competing against other people.

Here's world number 48, China's Zheng Zie:

Interview with Scott Ferguson

2011-12-10T14:25:00.003Z

Aaaah, Betfair. They are the betting equivalent of Marmite - you either love them or hate them. Actually, I don't know anyone who currently loves them, so that analogy probably doesn't work. But at some point, every person who discovers the world's first ever betting exchange, does fall in love with the concept. We've all loved Betfair and most of us want to fall back in love with Betfair again. So why are they now reviled by so many? I thought who better to ask than someone who has actually worked for them - journalist, author of the blog 'Sport is Made for Betting' and ex-Betfair employee Scott Ferguson.

You were the Head of Education at Betfair. What exactly did that job entail and what was your background before that?

Great job, working with all levels of punters and teaching them more about Betfair. From complete novices (who needed to start from the very basics) to some of the biggest accounts (who would be most interested in things like keyboard shortcuts), from non-punting staff (teaching techies and the HR girls was always a fun challenge) to business partners etc. My team ran seminars up and down the country, even abroad. Punters loved them because no bookie would ever want them to win, or even just lose less. I also ran the Betfair trailer at sporting venues all over the UK & Ireland (even the day the first one burned down at Uttoxeter!). Great job, totally unique in the trade. But times changed, Betfair are now hell-bent on screwing customers for every penny they can get and I'm glad I'm not there anymore.

My background was unique - I had been a bookmaker, a teacher, a professional punter and a journalist before joining Betfair. The perfect mix! I knew both sides of the betting counter and love explaining difficult concepts to laymen, breaking it down to what they can relate to. The movie 'Road Trip' has a great quote "I can teach Japanese to a monkey in 46 hours. The key is just finding a way to relate to the material." Best example of that was teaching a bunch of our promo girls how Betfair worked by relating it to buying shoes cheap on holiday in Thailand and then selling them on eBay when they got home.

Can you give us an insight into what working at Betfair was like? How was the general day to day atmosphere and did you enjoy your time there?

I joined quite early, back in 2004. Those were fun times, the punters loved Betfair because they were sick of being screwed by bookies and in-play betting with bookies had barely started. I was initially hired to get Australia on-board and spent two years at home spreading the word, before it was left to the lawyers and lobbyists to secure the licence. Then I moved to the UK and eventually created the Education department from scratch. Being on the road a lot was draining, but also rewarding - seeing a frustrated punter who just didn't 'get' Betfair open his mind and start picking up the concepts always brought a smile to the dial.

But as Betfair got bigger and bigger, the fun environment had to change. It got more serious, full of non-punting bean-counters (classic example of one senior manager who wanted to back the tie in every cricket match to ensure no loss of commission - clueless!). Once crap like the casino came in, the company ethos had changed and it went downhill internally from there. Not many of the 'good guys' left...

What have you been up to since leaving Betfair? Are you now trading professionally?

The problem with the role at Betfair was that I'd painted myself into a corner. As it was a unique position, there was really nowhere to go from there, unless I changed tack completely. So I started an MBA before I left to keep my mind active and challenged. I consulted for a few smaller betting firms but they are finding it very tough - the big firms have the deep budgets to chase customers, develop software etc. The small books just can't compete - they don't have the cash or reputation, so they're stuck dealing with a never-ending cycle of bonus whores and arbers. Got bored of giving advice to owners of small books which they would ignore because 'they knew best', despite them never having placed a bet in their lives! Now out of the industry, doing something better for the world.....

Not trading as much, very difficult with two young kids in the house. Now picking my moments to get involved, rather than trying to make an earn out of everything.

Can you tell us about 'Sport is Made for Betting' and why you started it?

I love writing and wanted an outlet to vent my opinions. I wrote most of the Betfair Education site, I write betting previews regularly for various sites but on the blog, I can unleash on Sepp Blatter, Paul Roy, the ICC and any other muppets I disagree with :) And it also gives me a chance to share a few trading theories - namely lay the field, next manager and on low-volume markets such as Nascar and women's golf. And my posts about match-fixing have led to several interviews with international press.

Why do you think the flotation of Betfair has gone so disastrously?

Variety of reasons. Floated at a bad time, but let's face it, with the economy so cactus at the moment, the next 'good' time could be 2025. It's a tech/gaming stock which are traditionally over-valued. They have pissed off many of their most valuable customers (see next question). Poor leadership from a bunch of non-punters who put the shareholders over the customer and then screw up on both fronts. Limited growth prospects - market saturation in the UK, regulatory problems abroad and poker is a dying fad which they never got right anyway.

Why do you think Betfair has become so disliked by its own customers?

Unadulterated greed. They were the punters' best friend when they first came out and revolutionised the betting industry, making bookies tighten their margins, and introduce a stack of new markets & products to attract more customers. But they, or more correctly those who harboured ambitions of a huge flotation, weren't happy with the small profit margins from the exchange and wanted to screw punters for more and more. So along came exchange games, poker, casino, mini-games, virtual racing... all with marketing campaigns which screamed 'We used to think you were smart betting on the exchange, now we think you're a mug who should piss all your money away on these stupid other products'. But the poker site was always crap and they wasted squillions on it. Casino sites are a dime a dozen and the other stuff is the domain of the cash punter who hangs around betting shops.

Customer service changed from admitting their mistakes and "The customer always comes first", to "Screw you, we're a billion-dollar firm and we don't give a shit that the site went down in the middle of a game", or "We think you've been betting on a suspicious match and will lock your account for a month without giving any details at all".

And then there's the premium charge - absolute PR disaster. Sure it only affects a small percentage but everyone likes to dream, and now that they are stuck for revenue streams, they've dived in again to attack their biggest advocates.

Many Betfair users feel that they are being taken advantage of because Betfair virtually have a monopoly on the betting exchange market. They feel as though Betfair employees really don't care about them and are just out to squeeze them for as much as possible, regardless of fairness. In your opinion, how close to the truth is this?

Hits the nail on the head really. In the early days, everyone they hired had a betting background, or at least an interest, so they understood the markets, issues, customer concerns etc. Now they just hire standard call-centre workers, as cheap as they can, who could be stuffing you around for Vodafone or a bank or an insurance company. Makes little difference to them, they just look up the answers to standard questions in the manual and copy & paste it onto your reply. And then there are the bean-counters/analysts who need to find a way to make more money, so the best way to do that is screw winning customers for more money via the premium charge and/or API fees.

Have you noticed a change in the ethos of Betfair and the way it has been run down the years?

Chalk and cheese. It was great fun in the early days, truly blazing a trail, changing the betting industry for the good of the punter. Then they started hiring 'experts' from other fields, because they 'obviously' knew how to run a highly successful betting company. Some real bone-headed decisions were made, very damaging to internal morale and when stuff like that happens and said experts aren't held accountable for them, the fun starts to disappear. Once they forced Andrew 'Bert' Black out of a day-to-day role (because he understood the industry and felt for the punter), it went downhill fairly quickly.

I joined the company to work for Ed Wray & Bert (and to a lesser extent, Mark Davies), following their dreams of an exciting concept taking over the world of betting. It was a great journey. But once it was obvious they were being forced out/their roles diminished to bring in the new breed of dull, passion-less business 'experts' who essentially saw customers as the enemy who must be exploited, it was time to move on and I don't regret leaving when I did.

Many people in high management positions have left Betfair in recent times. Why do you think this is?

99% of people in business will struggle when a company goes from 10-20 guys in a small office to over 1000. The business simply has to change, become hard-nosed over costs, stop treating PR as a laugh and really focus on a consistent core message etc. Senior execs in business these days change jobs all the time - clash of personalities, they screw up, they've done what they set out to accomplish etc. Many of the original staff left after the float - and several of those guys, even the ones way down the food chain don't have to work again for a long, long time. Others saw that as the right time to move on, having to answer to shareholders who don't understand the impact of bad weather on football & racing or the negative impact of raising commission rates etc. Pressure on the top guys is severe and now they are public, blood must be shed regularly if results aren't up to scratch...

Betfair have recently installed a new Chief Executive, Paddy Power's Breon Corcoran. What do you think he has to do to restore Betfair's reputation?

Stop focusing on the City and get back to looking after customers. Stop deluding themselves in thinking it's a technology company - if it was, it would be listed next to Dell and Microsoft in the Yellow Pages. It ain't. Hire people who actually go to the races or sporting events for reasons other than to get plastered in the hospitality suites.

The Premium Charge and Super-Premium Charge; in your opinion, why were they really brought in?

Greed and desperation at limited other options to increase revenue. It is true that the 'sharks' at one end do scare away the little fish, and those little fish are expensive to acquire. But without the big players providing liquidity, you don't have a business, so it's a dangerous game. The best way to hang onto those little fish was to educate them and make them aspire to climb higher on the food chain, but they effectively killed off the Education dept.

Where do you think Betfair is headed in 2012 and beyond?

Bound to tread water for a long time. I really hope this new bloke proves me wrong, but I doubt it.

How far behind Betfair are Betdaq and do you think it's possible for them to become a realistic competitor?

Ever heard of Alpha Centauri, the nearest star outside our solar system? That's how far behind they are. Betfair have kicked so many own goals in recent years and they still are a million miles away. They'd need the Chelsea/Man City style investment to have any chance of competing properly.

What do you believe are the chances of the American betting market opening up? What do you think would happen if it did?

News this week suggests California and New Jersey are closer than ever. But the American scene is so political, and it's all divided by state. Australia was very hard to crack a licence, but there was never an outright ban to overcome. America is a farce of a place regarding betting. I think it's in Arizona, you can't even bet on horse-racing online. Sports-betting is the big one, but outside of Nevada, it's all done illegally. Racing is where they'll start as that industry is dying a slow, painful death. Every local deal will have to provide a share of the profits to local racing, namely the 'horsemen's groups' who are the original 'Flat Earth' society in many states. Understanding the concept of lower margins = higher turnover is beyond them, yet you'd think with stores like WalMart everywhere it wouldn't be rocket science.

I'll go on record as saying the USA will never be completely open to Betfair, there will always be states who still think it's 1953 and that mythical being called God said gambling is evil (they should try asking their Irish ancestors!). And until there is a Federal Government with a proper majority and mandate for change, they won't be able to force the issue either. Australia has been a slow graft for Betfair, but it will be like an Olympic 100m final compared to the never-ending saga in the States.

If they were prepared to open the chequebook and effectively bribe the first few states into jumping on-board with huge sign-on fees, that would give them a kick-start. But a simple, seemingly no-brainer, issue such as being able to combine customer bets across state borders will hold them back. I would bet against them being able to link up with bets from the UK & the rest of the customer base in the short term - I hope I'm wrong. Without liquidity from a big audience of legal players, they will find it very tough to gain any traction. And until you have an attractive product with plenty of choice and liquidity, it's a lame duck....

Many thanks to Scott for taking the time to answer my questions - fascinating stuff. As ever, I'm available on TWITTER or via email (there's a link on my profile). Would be good to get those follower numbers up. Maybe a few more will be enough to motivate me to do some more interviews....... ;)

*As always, feedback and comments are welcome and I'd love to see more but if you are going to be a rude and needlessly critical twat, then don't bother. I do this for fun in my spare time, it's not a job, I don't get paid, I'm not trying to sell anything, and I don't care if you read or not, so if you have a problem I suggest you piss off and do your own interviews!

**VOTE LITTLE MIX!!! ;)

Andre Agassi

2011-12-09T13:00:00.002Z

I've been reading the tennis legend's autobiography this week. It's a fascinating read and I recommend it to anyone, whether they are into tennis or not. In fact, even if you don't like sports at all, it's an entertaining read, especially with the revelation that Agassi actually hates tennis. From a trader's perspective, you could even learn a little about what goes on inside a player's mind when they take to the court. It's something I think about all the time when I trade but often I'll read comments from people who are betting on a match that show clearly that they don't understand the mentality of a player at any given time. I see many traders who expect players to be robots who should always perform 100% to their best ability, regardless of time away from the game, mental pressures, motivation, the stage of the match and outside influences. Read 'Open' and it should help dispel that myth!

But the key thing I wanted to write about today was a section from the book taken from the lips of Brad Gilbert. You might know him as an ex-player, ex-coach of Agassi, Roddick and Andy Murray but he is probably best known as author of 'Winning Ugly', which has been heralded for many years as probably the best sports psychology book around. When Gilbert met Agassi to chat about becoming his new coach in 1994 (when Gilbert was strangely enough, still playing on the tour) he said the following to Agassi:

'You always try to be perfect.........and you always fall short and it fucks with your head.......You try to hit a winner on every ball, when just being steady, consistent, meat and potatoes, would be enough to win ninety percent of the time'

'It's all about odds and percentages..............Right now, by trying for a perfect shot with every ball, you're stacking the odds against yourself. You're assuming too much risk.........Fuck that. Just keep the ball moving. Back and forth. Nice and easy. Solid.'

'When you chase perfection, you know what you are doing? You're chasing something that doesn't exist. ............There's about 5 times a year you wake up perfect, when you can't lose to anybody, but it's not those 5 times a year that make you a tennis player. Or a human being for that matter. It's the other times. It's all about your head, man'

All this applies to trading too. I'm certainly guilty of being a perfectionist and it has cost me dearly as a trader, not being able to accept losses. Also not being able to accept that I will make mistakes, read games incorrectly or lose focus every now and then. Obviously, trading is all about odds and percentages too. And of course, there is the message about being consistent, not risking too much and patiently building from scratch, rather than throwing your eggs in one basket to quickly make big sums. Finally, it ends with what I've been saying for ages now - it's all in your head. As long time readers will know, my head has been messed up for a long time! I truly believe that will change in 2012. In fact, it's already begun to change over the past couple of months.

Here's world number 55, America's Bethanie Mattek-Sands:

2011 Blog Review

2011-12-07T16:30:00.000Z

Well the tennis season is now officially over and so is my first year of blogging. I know that I've picked up a lot of new readers in recent weeks, many of whom will not be familiar with my journey, so I thought I'd end 2011 by reviewing my year.

It's been a very disappointing year overall but with a huge, bright light at the end of the tunnel. When I began the blog, I thought (like I suppose 99.9% of all new trading bloggers) that it would only be a matter of weeks before I was consistently profitable from trading. I honestly believed that I would be comfortably living off my tennis profits after 6 months maximum. But I started badly (partly due to the extra pressure that writing a P&L blog actually puts you under), stopped writing within the first week and was almost finished within 2 months! Things then improved dramatically after I hit rock-bottom and was forced to make changes.

Unfortunately, this then lead to a second phase of over-confidence, where I did genuinely think I'd cracked it. This proved to be a huge false dawn and was cemented by the fact that the tennis markets changed following the introduction of the super-premium charge, rendering my strategy almost unworkable. This actually proved to be the best thing that could have happened to me. Yes, I'm actually thanking Betunfair for their grossly unjust and greedy manipulation! It forced me to make drastic changes and I totally revised my approach and discovered new ways of trading which were much more suited to my personality. Trading suddenly began to click and over the past 2 months, I've tweaked things and improved in all areas, to the point where I now feel I'm ready for a decent 2012.

This time last year, I was actually in a similar position. After a frustrating first year of tennis trading, I was given new hope after reading 'Trading in the Zone'. I began to make changes to my professional outlook, mindset and strategy, which I fully believed would see me crack trading in a matter of a few short months. I was wrong. Horribly wrong! So this time around, I am definitely not thinking that I will be where I want to be in 2012. I will not be putting a time-scale on anything and have no particular monetary expectations. Maybe I will be raking it in by March, maybe I will come good in summer or maybe it will take another year. I have no idea. But what I am certain of is that I will not LOSE money.

This means that the tremendous ups and (mostly!) downs of 2011 will no longer be around for your reading pleasure! I can't say it's always been fun writing the blog this year but it's definitely been therapeutic. It's a great outlet for my emotions aswel as for my creativity, which gets stifled somewhat by the every day battle on the ladders. The problem with this type of blog is that when you are doing well, there is generally much less to say and there is always much less comments from readers. I guess it's easier to empathise with a loser in this game! But the comments have always been very supportive and I want to thank again everyone who contributed.

I have experienced some of the biggest lows of my life and shared them with you all this year and it hasn't been easy to do that at times. Knowing that others out there are following and appreciating my posts has really helped. I've even received some fantastic emails from people praising 'Centre Court Trading' and nothing gives me greater satisfaction, not even an all green screen! The blog will (hopefully!) look very different next year but I'll still have plenty to say because writing is a passion of mine and so is tennis now. I just hope that trading will also be as big a passion in 2012.

Over the next few days, I will be writing about what I've learnt in 2011, focusing on a different subject each day.

Here's world number 25, the Czech Republic's Lucie Safarova:

John O'Dwyer Interview: Review

2011-12-06T18:50:00.000Z

Many thanks once again to John for agreeing to take part in my interview. I did feel as though many of the answers given only raised more questions, so felt it would be interesting to delve into them. I'm not looking to have a dig at John in any way but his blog has a lot of followers and I do think the situation he is in is one which many traders will find themselves in. Therefore, some important topics such as 'value', 'bank size', 'edges' and 'pressure' should be discussed. However, Cassini from 'Green All Over' does a much more effective job than I can of dissecting the interview and so I shall point you in his direction.

I can't help thinking that it doesn't really make sense for someone who believes that they have an edge, to ignore that edge until they gamble their way to a fixed amount of money. Surely if you know you have an edge and have already proved it, it shouldn't matter how small your bank is; just keep doing what you were doing when you were making money!

I agree when John says that a big bank does give a person extra confidence and stability but maybe that is the problem; it shouldn't make you any more confident because a consistent, profitable strategy is ultimately what should give you confidence. If a person is using good money management and using stakes that are adjusted to the size of their bank, surely confidence is always at the same level because it will still take the same number of losses to wipe you out, regardless of how much you have?

I don't wish to be too critical because I actually think I know what John is trying to do because I've done it myself in the past. My belief is that he is simply being too impatient. He's trying to build his bank up quickly and to do this in his usual way would have taken a long time, so instead, he's tried to short-cut his way to a big bank by straight-betting. When he gets to that £1000, he'll then do what he did before (trade out instead of risking it all) but the greens he'll be getting will be much bigger and the bank will grow quickly with less effort. I've done very similar things in the past as I've chased back losses with straight bets instead of proper trading. So I do empathise with John but I wonder if he'd just started from the beginning, slowly and patiently building up using small stakes and trading properly, where would he be by now? If he does indeed have an edge, no doubt he would have gone well past that £1000 mark.

But this impatience is always born out of underlying factors (and he does mention 'outside influences', which I know from reading his blog is financial troubles), and pressure to make money is usually the biggest one. I should know because it's been my downfall as a trader. So although I have my doubts about O'Dwyer's trading techniques, I wish him all the best because I have a feeling I know what he has gone through over the past year and it isn't pleasant. And I'm damn sure that there are many people out there who have gone into full-time betting / trading and made similar mistakes. But sometimes you have to just admit that you have got it wrong and start over again from scratch. That is a very hard thing to do though, to throw away months or years of working in a particular way and search for a new strategy. I had to do that myself this year but it may well turn out to be the best thing I've ever done.

Here's world number 19, Russia's Svetlana Kuznetsova:

John O'Dwyer Interview

2011-12-04T19:35:00.003Z

As promised in yesterday's post (please read for a full introduction), here is my interview with Betfair forum legend John O'Dwyer:

I think it's fair to say you are one of the most well known names ever to appear on the Betfair forum back in its heyday. Did you enjoy your time on there and what did you get out of it?

I used to use the forum for information purposes back in the day, there is some good information on there, mixed in with some not so good information. It was also quite good entertainment, and I was never too serious when I used it.

Do you still post on there or are you just a regular reader now?

I don't post on there and rarely go back and visit it. I use twitter for information purposes these days.

There's no doubt that the forum is not quite the place it was 2 or 3 years ago. In your opinion, how has the forum changed since you were a regular poster?

I used to use it for the in-play match day threads and to keep up to date with scores as they happened. That was what it was best for. Not sure how it has changed, although like most Internet forums, because most people are anonymous, it's easy to get carried away and say things they wouldn't in person.

I think you'll agree that most of the time, you took a lot of stick from other forumites and you seemed to be involved in arguments every day. How did you feel about it at the time?

I was never too serious when I used it and I think most use it as a form of entertainment. It's only an Internet forum, most people get too involved.

Would you say that 'odwyer1980' was a true reflection of your own personality and did you really tell the truth about all your betting activity?

I'm not sure if it's a true reflection of my personality. Like I say, it used to be a good laugh although sometimes people crossed the line. It could have been monitored better I suppose. Betfair could have done better with that, not sure if that's changed or not.

The bet I always remember most from the forum was your suggestion to lay Real Betis at 80, when they were 2-0 down to Barcelona. Betis came back to win 3-2. Did you really place that bet?

That was real. I only layed it for £2 although it was a big loss for me at the time and stung badly. I think I also layed a German team (Duisburg away to Werder) at 14 on the same day that won, so it wasn't the best of weekends. I did it all wrong back in the day and never used to trade out of bets. I've learnt a lot about how to profit since then.

How would you describe your style? Would it be fair to say you are a gambler rather than a trader?

I go with what I see. I don't categorise myself personally. I rarely bet pre match. I like to get a look at what's going on before I make any decisions. Also, the event has to be on TV or Betfair live video. I won't bet/trade on it unless I have live pictures. I am very much cautious once I have stability, although this year I've been trying to build my bank through gambling and that involves taking more risks. Not the way I prefer, although I've had no option but to go this route. Something I'm hoping will change ASAP.

I had quite a bit of success in 2010 which started from £500 in February that year. Trading is the only real way forward although I sometimes like the odd gamble when I'm confident of how things will go. Where I've gone wrong this year is I've not had the bank size that was available to me last year, so I've been trying to gamble my way forward and it's not really worked.

You have been writing a blog for the past couple of years and achieved some real success at the start. Can you tell us about this and how it felt to be doing so well?

I did well in 2010 which started from around £500 in February of that year. I was lucky enough to build it gradually throughout the year through trading and the odd gamble when I felt things were in my favour, and it worked as I thought it would. I think my profit and loss from Feb to around September time was around £27k, and the most I had in my Betfair account at any one time was £13k. Times have changed since then. Not sure on my blog, as I don't treat it like other people's blogs who make a lot of effort. It's just there to keep up with my profit and loss really.

You seem to bet on a lot of different sports. Most experienced gamblers / traders, will say that you should specialise in 1 or 2 sports. What would you say to that?

I will cut down on one or two once I get the bank size and stability I need. Although this was how I was successful initially so there will not be any major changes. I'm comfortable trading on most sports.

Which sports do you bet on and which ones provide you with most profit?

My best sports are Football, Rugby Union and Rugby League. They're the ones I feel I can make the most profit. I want to avoid the likes of horse racing as I feel I have no edge or knowledge and will never compete with those who have access to the result before I do. You can see the time delay on Betfair and ATR.

Things have taken a down-turn for you over the past 12 months or so. What was it do you think that happened to change your fortune?

I probably got too greedy and took bigger risks, and I've never really had the chance to put things right. During the Australian Open in January for example, I lost too much trying to win too much and it was downhill from there. It's definitely been a bad year as far as Betfair is concerned.

Many people have commented that they think you don't have an edge and that you hit a good spell but now things have evened out with a bad spell. What is your response to that?

I've not had 1k+ in my account since March, and that's how I was successful initially. Big bank brings stability and confidence and because I'm using a small bank, it's making things difficult. The last 7 months have been unacceptable, but outside matters have not helped my situation as well.

I notice that you always seem to mention that you need to get your bank up to £1000 before you can start to make progress and get back to a profitable era. Why do you need to reach that figure?

That's just a figure as an example. £1k isn't going to magically mean that I will start to make thousands again. I just need a big enough bank to get going again, as once I do, I'm quite confident I can do as well as I did in 2010.

Having read your blog right from the beginning, it would seem as an outsider having a guess, that you place large sums of money with high risk, on short priced faves or very low odds. Is this correct?

I deleted a lot of blog entries I made last year from January 2010 where I was struggling before things eventually went right. That was a mistake, as I'm in a similar position now and saying the exact same things. I only bet when I'm confident and try to trade-out of most bets. I've learnt quite a lot and feel I know what markets to touch and what not to touch. I rarely touch short priced favourites anymore.

How did you get started on Betfair and how long was it before you were making big profit?

I only discovered it in 2007 and it took me around a month to get used to the trading out aspect of it. I made a lot of school-boy errors early on and lost quite a bit, but finally caught on. Betfair is the only betting platform I use. I don't use Betdaq because of the lack of money in the markets, although I've not had a look for a year, so I'm not sure if it's improved or not. I've not even been in a betting shop for a few years now. 2010 was the year I finally discovered how to make it pay.

You are a full-time sports bettor. What mistakes have you made and what advice would you give to anyone thinking about going full-time?

I've made a lot of mistakes and learnt a lot from them. Always trade out of bets (unless you are doing it for fun) even when you think it's 100% certain, trade out anyway, it's amazing how many times I've thought a bet can't lose only for it to get beat at really short odds 20 minutes later. Trade out of everything, and don't get greedy. You will win that way.

What do you love and hate most about being a full-time sports bettor?

It's fun when you win, but can be stressful otherwise. The social aspect isn't the best as you are on your own for the most part. It can get quite lonely. It was good in 2010 as I was winning and had a good life at the same time. Going to Wimbledon knowing you have quite a bit of money was great. Travelling to New York for the US Open and being able to spend without worry was really fun. Waking up in the morning and doing something you enjoy is great, and although I have respect for people who do 9-5 jobs, I'd always prefer to be doing something that I enjoy. I think we all would! I'm not lazy by the way, I try and run 20+ miles per week to stay active and it helps with my mindset as well.

Have you been hit by the premium charge and how do you feel about it?

I've never been hit with that. Not sure why. I think I am around £14k up since I started using Betfair in 2007, despite having a very bad year.

What is your biggest ever win and worst loss?

My biggest loss was laying Louis Oosthuizen to win the Open championship at St Andrews on the final day in 2010. He was leading by a few shots, but I thought he'd trade lower, so got greedy (I was up around 8k for the year at that stage and had 10k in my Betfair account) and lost around £2k. I was at the event that year thanks to winning on Betfair, so couldn't trade out - they don't have Internet access at the course. The loss can be seen on my blog. The most I've ever won was £1,100 in one bet. That was on Rafa Nadal in his opening match at the French Open in 2010, on the handicap market. I think the handicap was +12.5 games for his French opponent, who I backed.

What do you think the future holds for the betting exchanges and yourself as a sports bettor?

I'd like to see access to Betfair in the US at some stage. I'd also like to see a real competitor to Betfair, but that's not going to come over-night! I heard Donald Trump is creating a betting platform - one he says that's unique in style, not sure if it's a betting exchange though. For me personally, I am hoping for a better 2012. That's what I'm working towards at the moment - start again fresh for the new year, and hope things go in the right direction from there.

Many thanks to John for taking the time to answer my questions so honestly. As I've mentioned before, I'm new to Twitter so come and follow me - starting to get slightly addicted to it now............

The Betfair Forum

2011-12-03T17:25:00.001Z

Aaaah, the Betfair forum. There was a time when it was pretty much the epicentre of the online betting world; a thriving community of lively debate, controversial characters, heated arguments, amusing threads and insightful comments. A couple of years ago, all this changed when Betfair shot themselves in the foot (highly unlike Betfair to make a mess of something that worked perfectly fine, I know) and decided to 'upgrade' the forum, at the expense of the thing that made it so good in the first place - simplicity. Over-night it changed from a quick, clear, simple forum into one that is now much slower, too difficult to quote other posters, convoluted with needless extras like the blog facility, harsher on the eyes because of the bright white background, no thread search facility and moderated to the point of banality. It became a ghost-town for months and is still today, a shadow of its former self.

I was fortunate enough to enjoy the last 2 years of the old forum, when it was still in its prime and a fun place to visit each day. The football forum in particular, was a hive of activity but tennis, horses, chit-chat and general betting were all popular reads. Sure, you had your trolls, P&L liars and even the odd racist pop up every now and then but there were also some very knowledgeable people, some highly entertaining discussion and lots of little nuggets of great information amongst the childish bickering. These days, the nuggets are few and far between and you'll be waiting a long time for any threads of real substance or that don't crowbar the word 'mug' into every sentence.

It seems to be populated much more by youngsters new to betting exchanges and there are less of the more experienced, older traders who will have joined in Betfair's early years. As such, things tend to degenerate into playground slanging matches ('Federer's the GOAT!' 'No, Federer's Nadal's bitch, he's the GOAT!' 'Nadull is Djokovic's bitch, Nole is the GOAT!') or childish insulting of players, whilst screams of 'FIX!' seem more common than ever as newbie punters look for scapegoats for their own incompetence. Of course, this was always the case and there is a tendency for old users to look back with rose-tinted specs but there is no doubt that there was a greater variety of people and as such, a better balance of threads and information than there is today.

My most enjoyable time there was spent on the late night Copa Libertadores matches, which at the time were relatively new on Betfair Video and used to draw a small but friendly crowd of late night punters. They were usually free from the insults and machismo of the day matches and were almost always hilarious because Latin American football is just as erratic and unpredictable as the continent itself. I'll never forget a thread entitled 'Haiti v Suriname............AND IT'S LIIIIIIIIIIIVE on Betfair Video!!'. It turned into a hilarious, all-time classic, stretching over many pages with hundreds of posts - not bad for a nothing game that started after midnight. Here's the highlights (Haiti absolutely battered Suriname for 90 mins but missed more chances than I've ever seen in any game before or since. They were 2-0 down somehow but scored twice in injury time), complete with dodgy camera-work and manic commentary! Go to 5.30 to see the penalty that levelled it (they almost missed that effort too!) - AMAZING SCENES!!

A forum character who will go down as one of the most talked about of all time, is 'odwyer1980'. A particularly prolific poster on the football forum but known right across all the genres, he always courted controversy, derision and debate for his attempts at tipping threads. You can still mention his name to this day and a few hardy stalwarts will pop-up to regale you with tales of his 'Comprehensive Money Making Machine' and other glorious disasters. Love him or hate him, odwyer1980 threads were always the largest and liveliest on the forum and I certainly found them fun to get involved in. I thought it would be nice to catch up with the man behind the moniker, John O'Dwyer, to see what he'd been up to since those halcyon days. Tomorrow, I'll be posting up my interview with him. In the mean time, here's a picture of world number 26, Belgium's Yanina Mug-mayer ;)

Davis Cup Final

2011-12-02T11:20:00.007Z

Spain v Argentina begins today with the first two rubbers in Seville. On paper it looks like Spain should win pretty easily. With Rafa Nadal at home on clay, it looks a done deal and there is certainly no value in backing Spain or Nadal in any of his matches. Juan Monaco is his first opponent, which looks a 3-0 match all the way. It has to be said that Monaco has been playing superbly of late and as clay is his favourite surface, there is an outside chance he might take a set. Certainly worth a watch as Nadal has not been playing anywhere near his best for a while now, although of course, he's not been on the red-dirt.

The other rubber today pairs Del Potro and Ferrer. Again, you can't really look past Ferrer. This guy lives and breathes on the grit and has been in great form lately. Del Potro's serve will always make him a tough opponent on any surface but Ferrer is simply too good a mover and returner, and this should negate the main advantage that the Argentine has. Hopefully, the Spaniard will be a bit nervous and Del Potro can nick the first set because that will open up the match for trading opportunities.

The doubles takes place on Saturday, which really could go either way. I'm quite surprised Granollers isn't playing for Spain, especially as Verdasco lost both the previous doubles games in the semi and quarter finals, losing to the Bryan brothers of the USA and obliterated 6-1 6-2 6-0 by the French in an embarrassing display. Granollers did play against the Bryans but it's hardly a disgrace to lose to the best doubles pairing in the world. Lopez partnered Verdasco against France and it's the same pairing against Shwank and Nalbandian, who didn't play together in any of the previous rounds. Looks to me like Nalbandian has been shoe-horned into the doubles because Monaco was chosen ahead of him for the singles. It's a tough one to call either way and much will depend on what happened in the first two rubbers. Shwank is a good doubles player and maybe Nalbandian will bring out his brilliant best on the day. Could be a good game to trade.

Nadal against Del Potro on Sunday will be interesting but again, I don't see Nadal losing, especially after such a disappointing ATP Tour Final in London. He'll be out to show he's still a dominant force. I wouldn't be surprised if Nalbandian wasn't brought in for the final singles match against Ferrer, instead of Monaco. Monaco is basically an inferior version of Ferrer and I can't see him winning that but Nalbandian? He's got the skills to upset Ferrer's rhythm and when he's up for it, as he surely will be, he can beat anyone.

Let's just hope it goes to a 5th rubber so we can trade all weekend, cos that's it after this clash. Well, unless you count the AEGON Masters event in London. This is a tournament for retired players and is going to be in-play on the exchanges - remarkable when you consider they didn't put any of the Challenger Tour Finals matches on the site at all! If betting on the likes of John McEnroe and Goran Ivanisevic is your thing, then trade away! I'll no doubt have a look and see what liquidity is like. There is likely to be huge value in these games as no one will really know what to expect until the game actually gets going. Should be fun if nothing else and I'm looking forward to the battle of the Brits - Rusedski v Henman! COME ON TIIIIIIIIM!!!

Today's photoshoot pic is of Estonia's world number 34 Kaia Kanepi:

Moaning Tennis Players

2011-12-01T15:27:00.000Z

Found an interesting article in The Economist about scheduling in tennis

My own opinion of the tour schedule is probably a little biased because as a tennis trader, I want MORE tournaments and matches, not less! Nonetheless, I think I would still be of the opinion that these players need to stop whinging about the number of matches they play. I find it amazingly hypocritical that Rafa Nadal can complain (he played more than any other player in 2010, around 80 matches) yet chose to also play in some exhibition tournaments as well as The Thailand Open, which is a 250 event that wasn't mandatory but where he was famously paid a 7 figure sum just for entering. This year, he has again played more matches to date than any other player on the main tour - 83. Here are the requirements expected of top players, taken from the ATP website:

In 2011, any player who finished in the 2010 year-end Top 30 will be required to compete in four Grand Slam tournaments and eight ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments.

Top 30 players (based on '10 year-end ranking) must play a minimum of four 500 level tournaments during the calendar year, including at least one event following the US Open (Monte Carlo Masters 1000 event will count towards the minimum

In 2011, Nadal hit all those pre-requisites and played OVER the minimum by one 250 event (Queen's Club). If you compare him to Janko Tipsarevic, (who is next highest for number of matches played this year at 81) he has played 26 tournaments plus 3 Davis Cup ties; far more travelling and surely far more exhausting than Nadal's 17 tournaments and 2 Davis Cup ties. I doubt Tipsarevic is moaning, though maybe that'll change now he's top 10!

Lesser players won't play as many games but that is because they won't win as many. Take for example, Marcos Baghdatis. 55 played, 28 won, 27 lost. Hasn't had any major injuries this year and has entered 27 tournaments. Of course, his ranking dropped severely last year and he had to qualify for bigger events and needed to earn points in 250s to get up the rankings but that's his job. I suppose 55 matches compared to 83 is a big gap but is that not the one price you pay for success? I'm sure Baghdatis would kill to be playing 80 matches a year from 10 fewer tournaments.

Another player moaning is Mardy Fish (as anyone who saw his recent disgusting photo of his swollen leg on Twitter will know!) but he has played 22 tournaments this year including 6 250 events, which is way over the minimum requirement for a top 30 player. He wouldn't be saying anything if he hadn't gotten injured, putting his ATP finals place at risk, but a few less tournaments might have helped (he's played 68 games).

Is the quality of tournaments compromised by the 'long' schedule? I don't see it. The Paris Masters, the final tournament of the year, takes place in November and the 2010 event was heralded as one of the best quality ATP tournaments of the year. So people are moaning about drop-outs this year but that can happen at any stage of the year. Tipsarevic isn't injured and still played at the ATP Finals. Roger Federer has played 77 matches in 2011 and this is a fascinating stat; he's NEVER retired from an ATP match! EVER! He played his best tennis of 2011 at the Tour Finals and he's 30 now. Why is that? I believe it's because Federer organises his schedule well. He takes enough time off to enable his body to recover, picking and choosing tournaments much better. The tour schedule isn't the problem, it's the individual players schedules that need looking at.

Take Andy Murray, another serial moaner. He played Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai back to back, winning all three. He'd also won Cincinnati and reached the US Open quarter final not long before Bangkok. It's no wonder he was knackered come Paris and pulled out of London. He admits he has to look at his schedule for next year.

I just think it's the pampered few at the very top trying to use their influence to get what they want, forgetting that less tournaments means less money and ranking point opportunities for the lower ranked players. If you downgrade events or make them non-compulsory, it puts the tour in jeopardy anyway. Don't forget, these tournaments give a chance for people from all over the world to enjoy tennis live and to help put more money into the ATP coffers. Not to mention the tournament organisers and employees who rely on the business. I'm sure there could be a compromise somewhere (why are Indian Wells and Miami two weeks long, for starters?) but to even consider striking, (as Nadal, Murray and several others did at the US Open) smacks of selfishness.

Here's world number 24, Slovakia's Daniela Hantuchova:

Everyone's a Tipster

2011-11-30T13:00:00.005Z

I'm a new member of the Twitterati brigade (follow me please, I need to appear more popular than I actually am!), having rejected Twitter for years as a pointless site for kids and celebrity obsessed fans to cyber-stalk their idols and for the idols to sell more of their crap. I stand by that assessment for the most part, although I'm now coming to see that it does have its plus-points in terms of catching the latest news fresh from the grape-vine, getting the general mood of the nation on various topics, finding out where Julia Goerges is on any given day and of course, hearing the incredibly profound, sharp-minded and not in any way contrived thoughts of Joey Barton.

The biggest annoyance though, is having to scroll your way through a daily gush of bilge, such as Federer and Nadal fanboys poking each other with sticks, constant updates from about 50 people at the same time, telling you who's just taken a corner in whatever football match is on and worst of all, the endless line of 'tipsters' trying to give their 'expert' view.

I'm just astounded by the number of people who claim to be tipsters on Twitter. The vast majority are football and horse racing based. How on earth can there be so many people out there who truly believe that their advice is the best advice? Some of them are obviously just ordinary punters who think they know it all and are just voicing an opinion but how does that entitle you to call yourself a tipster? The rest are all companies or more likely individuals trying to seem like a company in order to dupe you into subscribing. I just don't see how there can be so many all offering advice on the exact same subject!

Are there really that many gullible people out there looking for the holiest of grails, whereby they don't have to do ANY work at all to make a profit, other than do what someone else tells them? I'd love to know how many of these 'tipsters' actually turn a good profit. I would want to see a minimum of 2 years of profitable records before even considering paying a tipster. And if a tipster was that good, word would surely get around and we'd all be following, which would then negate any value that may have been there in the tips anyway. Or the tipster would realise that he was that good and stop giving tips so he can keep all the rewards for himself. No sensible tipster would give away their edge, surely?

They never seem to have a losing day either. The tweets are always along the line of 'Another winning day for all our subscribers' and 'Well done to everyone who followed our tips today'. Just for once I'd like to see 'Sorry to all our subscribers for the poor advice we gave today' or 'If you'd followed our tips today you'd be massively in the red - never mind'. I suppose it's not great for business though. And that's what you have to remember when you get involved with these services - they are businesses mostly, not altruistic gurus who just want to share their knowledge. Or am I being too harsh? I'm sure there are good ones out there but from bitter experience, I reckon most are best avoided.

Anyway, good luck to them, I've no real issue with what they are doing other than the fact they make it harder for me to see what airport Julia Goerges has just arrived at. So yeah, follow me on Twitter and I will let you know what the score is on any current match I'm watching, despite the fact you are probably watching the exact same match anyway. That's #tennis.tipster.sultan.

Here's world number 20, Italy's Flavia Pennetta:

December Blues

2011-11-29T14:03:00.004Z

And so the tennis season crawls to a halt at the end of this week, with just the Davis Cup final between Spain and Argentina to come over the weekend. I've dreaded the arrival of December since I started tennis trading, partly because there are no games to trade but also because I don't trust myself not to get involved with the football. I did pretty well last year and was quite disciplined but I have my worries this time around. All those Premier League games around the Christmas period are going to look mighty tempting, even though I despise football trading. Most of it is just too much like gambling. My plan has always been to take December off and go travelling somewhere but obviously, holidays are out of the question until I'm actually successful.

Fortunately, I had a decent ATP Tour Finals week and have made major steps forward with my ATP trading. Although WTA will always remain my tour of choice for trading, I am very confident now that I can make money from the men's game too. I realised that last week, that all I need to do is apply the same basic approach (looking for value) but adjust the entry and exit points a little. I managed to do this well all week, in a tournament that produced far more opportunities than I would have ever expected before it began. Unfortunately, I managed to mess up my good work by dabbling in the doubles and experimenting with the set betting markets! This will not be happening again!

I'm now keeping fingers crossed that Little Mix win The X-Factor (yeah, I watch it and I'm not ashamed! Never treat it seriously, that's the way to enjoy these things), as this will leave me with a very satisfying profit going into 2012. The key to betting on these shows is not in watching the show alone but in immersing yourself in the analysis afterwards. I get far more info from the spin off Xtra Factor programme, Twitter and the Digital Spy forum and this is where you'll see (in my opinion) who the real favourites are. Little Mix are the ones who are consistently raved about, not Marcus Collins, who is the only other real contender at this stage. I could be wrong of course but the odds on Little Mix have halved since I got involved, making them the new faves. Vote Little Mix everyone!!!

Here's the beautiful Slovakian world number 18, Dominica Cibulkova:

Strong Is Beautiful: Aravane Rezai

2011-11-28T15:31:00.003Z

The Frenchwoman has slipped to number 113 in the world after a disastrous 2011. She was a top 20 player in 2010, with the year of her life so far. On her best days, she is the biggest hitter in the women's game, rivalling and capable of beating even Serena Williams. On a bad day, she can lose to absolutely anyone and did so time and time again this year.

To be fair, she has suffered from a tumultuous personal life. At the start of the year, her father and coach was banned from attending WTA events after attacking her boyfriend! It's no wonder her form took a nose-dive and she has been truly dire in most matches I've seen her in, barely able to keep the ball in the court for more than a few games. Let's hope 2012 is kinder to her, as she is a great player to watch when in full-flow.

If you've not seen my interviews with TradeShark, Mark Iverson, The Geek and Cassini, have a look around for some great advice. I'm new to Twitter too, so come and follow me please!

Cassini Interview Part 2

2011-11-27T16:45:00.000Z

Continued from yesterday.............

What do you still struggle with mostly as a trader and what aspects are you still working at to improve?

Over-staking can be an issue. If I see a lot of money at great value (for me), my instinct is to take the entire amount. Recently, I layed £40,000 at 1.08 (risking £3,200) – a small risk for a potentially large return. The bet was value in that the price rose to 1.12, but £40,000 is a lot of money to off-load, and before I had covered my position, the price dropped below 1.08 leaving me with a £1,000 loss. It’s good to know that the lay was value, but sometimes the position taken is too much relative to the liquidity in that market.

I’m also aware that I take poorer value if I am already green on an event versus if I am starting out. For example, if I am green on both sides by £1,000, I will sometimes lay the leader at say 1.5, reducing my potential profit to zero on that selection, but increasing the profit to £3,000 on the other. A perfect trader would make the same move each time regardless of any profits or losses locked in, but I’m not the perfect trader. If I already have profits to play with, it gives me the confidence that I am reading the game well, but sometimes this confidence becomes over-confidence.

Do you ever have days where you lose focus or discipline, how regularly does it happen and how do you deal with it?

Because trading is a part-time hobby, I am able to select the days and events I want to trade, and losing focus is not an issue. Occasionally a game is a non-event for trading, the dreaded 1.01 express, but in those cases I simply stop trading and do something else.

Discipline is not an issue for me either. Looking back to the Manchester United loss in January 2006, I see signs that following that loss, I was a little reckless, with losing months following in February and April before recognizing that this aggressive approach was not working and re-adopting the more cautious style that had previously worked. I finally recovered the losses in August of that year, eight lost months, and since then I have had no problems with discipline.

Would you ever consider going full-time and have you thought about it in the past?

I can make an above average income from part-time trading, so the idea of considering giving up my career to go full-time is a non-starter. Have I ever considered the idea? Of course it has crossed my mind, but it simply wouldn’t make sense for me to do that. Part-time trading to make extra money suits me just fine, and since almost all the events I am interested in take place outside of the typical work day, and I have the flexibility to adjust my hours and work from home if I want to, I have the best of both worlds.

Besides that, there is no guarantee that it will always be possible to make money from trading. Not only are any edges you have vulnerable, but as the introduction of the Premium Charge has shown, there is no guarantee that the rules won’t change. For now Betfair are happy to allow winning customers (for a share of those profits) but this could well change overnight. Bookmakers close accounts and limit bets, and there is no reason why exchanges might not do the same. There is also the possibility that regulatory changes could come in that, for example, outlaw betting in-play.

How has the Betunfair super-premium charge affected your trading?

The Super Premium Charge hasn’t affected me directly yet, since I am still (based on my long-term daily profits) about 186 days away from reaching the current figure they have decided upon, but in preparation for its impending arrival, I am attempting to increase my activity on Betdaq where possible, although liquidity there in most of my specialty sports remains spotty at best. I am really resigned to paying 50% of profits in the future, at least until a viable alternative to Betfair comes along. It’s still better for me to make £100 on Betfair and give back £50 in charges than it is for me to win £20 with no commission on another exchange, but how de-motivational it will prove to be remains to be seen.

Moving the goalposts as Betfair have done is really unfair to customers like myself who have been using the site profitably for a number of years. We played by the rules, and now the rules have changed, penalizing us, but not anyone opening an account today. Whine over – it doesn’t do any good!

What is the biggest win and worst loss you've ever had (either trading or gambling)?

Biggest win (before commission and Premium Charge) so far is £29,500, biggest loss was the £5,000 I mentioned earlier.

What do you most love and most hate about trading?

The part of it I most enjoy is the challenge. The extra money is a nice bonus, but I don’t need it. Several colleagues spend much of their spare time playing interactive video games, or fantasy sports, but that all seems rather pointless to me. Trading is my video game or fantasy sport, but it’s a game where winning points mean real prizes. There’s nothing I hate about it. It’s frustrating when trades don’t work out, but you’re not going to call heads or tails correctly every time.

What do you feel the future holds for betting exchanges, the markets and yourself as a trader?

The Betting Exchange concept is a brilliant idea, although it appears the business model is flawed when a few people have a high strike-rate, and the “We Welcome Winners” is hardly true any more. Exchanges would like to be the casino operating a game where any individual customer has the same chance of winning or losing as any other, and the casino takes their cut from each spin. Players put their money down, win some, lose some, have fun doing it over a period of time, and after a while everyone leaves the table broke, but entertained, with all the money in the casino’s safe.

In practice though, what is happening is that a few players have worked out a way of getting the odds in their favour, and less savvy customers lose their money to the sharper minds too quickly and walk away too soon, and not entertained. The winners take their money and put it in their pockets, never to be seen in action again. Betfair’s solution of imposing excessive penalties on winners doesn’t solve the problem though. There will always be some people who can figure out how to be profitable and ultimately, as bookmakers do, they may need to ban successful customers completely, which then makes marketing the exchange a little tricky - “We Welcome (Slow) Losers”.

I suspect that the big winners make their money on in-play events, so perhaps it is the future of in-play betting which is more uncertain. It’s a known area of concern to regulators, although now the genie is out of the bottle, I think it will always be around in some form. The problem with trying to ban it is that it simply drives it underground, where it becomes impossible to monitor.

As for my own future, with the Super Premium Charge not too far away, I’m taking one day at a time, and making extra money while I can and looking at other exchanges as well. When my daily profits halve overnight, I shall probably become even more selective in the events I trade. I will still enjoy the intellectual challenge of finding a way to win, but whatever happens in the future, that £100 deposit in Betfair has been the best investment of my life.

'Green All Over' is now one of the most well-known and well-read trading blogs. What made you start it and how has it evolved down the years?

I went back to my opening post for some clues as to what was in my mind back in March 2008, and it was surprising how little has changed. Here’s what I wrote at the time:

"I have been active on Betfair for almost four years now, and have had some moderate success. Some good wins, some small wins, some small losses and some frightening losses, but overall I have made a steady profit.

I have recently starting reading a number of blogs themed on Betfair, hoping to pick up some ideas, but sadly most seem to be a diatribe of eating and drinking habits, interspersed with less than informative betting related comments like "Lost £2.67 on the cricket today".

So, as arrogant as ever, I am hoping to fill this gap with a blog that goes a little deeper into the reasons why I made or lost money, my thoughts and emotions as the win / loss was happening, and perhaps filled with other observations from the world of betting.

If horse-racing is your thing, then this blog is probably not for you. Racing is just not for me. Rather like the stock-exchange, there are far too many insiders with access to a lot more information than I have and I find that the world of sports offers a more even playing field.

My investing style, and I prefer the term 'investing' over 'betting', is to trade fast moving sports in-running, looking for value. The markets are driven by two factors, fear and greed, and in the heat of battle, these factors drive people to make bad decisions and take or offer poor value bets. This is what I look for. I don't always win, but like I explained to my old Mum, if I can get 2-1 on a coin toss, I'll lose some but win a lot more. Sadly I don't often find 2-1 on evens chances, but in Betfair terms if I can get 2.1 on a 2.0 chance, I'm happy."

Unchanged: I’m still arrogant, still don’t care for horse-racing, still look for value in fast moving sports and still loathe the P&L blogs! Why did I start the blog? I’ve always enjoyed writing, and I just felt like there was room out there for one more. I must admit I’m surprised it’s lasted this long. It’s not always easy to think of something to write about, and some posts are not exactly exciting to read, but every now and again I hope I stimulate some thoughts somewhere, and you’ll occasionally see me being a little provocative. It’s actually good to see that the first comments I received were from Graeme Dand and Mark Iverson, two other bloggers who have stood the test of time.

Do you have an idea of what your readership is and the sort of hit rate you are getting?

I know exactly what my hit rate is – over the last year it averages 387 a day. The high was a quite impressive 757 on 25.Sep.2011 after a post was linked to on the FTS (Lay The Draw) forum. Hard to say what my readership is – the vast majority of visitors never comment, but they come from all over the world. I have 126 Members who probably visit most days, and I have 187 returning visitors a day and 133 first time visitors. Of course, most first time visitors will then be hooked!

What other blogs out there do you enjoy reading and why?

Other blogs? None really. Only mine. On average, I visit Green All Over about 187 times a day…

Seriously, I read most of the non-racing ones that are on my blog roll, and of the active ones I enjoy 'Thoughts of a Football Trader', your own 'Centre Court Trading', 'Sports Trading Life', Mark Iverson’s rare posts, Graeme Dand’s attempts to find value in football, Cubone’s fascinating musings on days gone by (although he still needs an editor and proof-reader), 'Secret Diary of a Professional Gambler', Scott Ferguson’s 'Sport is made for Betting' and the more serious 'Soccermetrics', 'Soccer by the Numbers' and 'A Beautiful Numbers Game'. I enjoy blogs that put ideas out there, where the writer is thinking out loud or just opening up about their emotions and thoughts.

·

What do you think is missing from the sports trading blogosphere and what are the things you don't like about it?

There’s a distinct lack of ‘general’ blogs. I’d like to see more blogs out there that aren’t focused so much on football or horse-racing. There are lots of sports out there, and I’d like to read about the thoughts of others on those sports, especially thoughts with some numbers behind them. I used to enjoy JP’s Portfolio blog, which was more than just a P&L blog since he would comment with his thoughts each day, but that fell by the wayside when he hit a bad run and if anyone else is out there trying to profit from a diverse portfolio, I’d be interested in reading about the highs and lows and associated emotions of investing this way.

I think the problem is that it is very difficult to write about losing. Investors of all types tend not to be too open about the losses, but only too happy to talk about the wins. It’s human nature to want to project an air of invulnerability, so many blogs just die after a short time simply because the writer is losing and would rather disappear quietly than talk about it. While not a blog exactly, I do enjoy reading Peter Nordsted's thoughts on a Saturday morning. He comes up with selections from a number of sports, and a reason for them. I don't always agree with his reasoning, but I think a difference of opinion is a healthy thing.

I don’t care for blogs that put up selections without any reasoning, and there are types of blogs I don’t care for, but there’s a simple remedy which is to simply stop reading them.

·

What do you enjoy most about blogging and what do you hope your readers get from 'Green All Over'?

I enjoy putting my thoughts down in writing, and I enjoy putting ideas out there. It’s a good way to start the day, and I appreciate the constructive comments, which most are. With over 300,000 hits and counting, I must be doing something right. I don’t post every day, and I don’t worry about it. Some days are just like that. I’d like to see more input from readers, even if it’s just to pit your selections against mine and others in a meaningless bit of competition.

First and foremost, I hope the blog entertains people. I have a sense of humour that might not be to everyone’s taste, but I think most people don’t take me too seriously. It would be easy to read one post and take it the wrong way, but if you read a few, you should get some idea about me. I enjoy investing and I enjoy writing about it. I hope readers pick up some ideas, and I hope readers learn from my many mistakes.

And for anyone wondering where today’s post is, the time went on answering these questions. Blame The Sultan. And feel free to comment on the blog if anyone has any follow up questions on any of these answers.

Thanks Sultan for the invitation and for some good questions.

And thanks to Cassini for taking the time to give some excellent, expansive answers. There is a lot to be learnt here for any aspiring traders - I just wish I'd had something like this to read a few years ago. £29,500! Now there's something to aim for...........By the way, I'm now up on Twitter if anyone wants to see my thoughts on trading and tennis. A few more followers wouldn't go amiss! Not that I'm desperate or anything..........

Interview with Cassini from 'Green All Over'

2011-11-26T12:00:00.004Z

If you are not familiar with the 'Green All Over' blog, then you cannot truly consider yourself part of the online sports trading community. Over the past few years, it has grown into probably the most well known, well respected and certainly well read trading blog. That is due to the author, Cassini, who is one of the few regular posters around who actually has plenty to write about other than a P&L update. It's without doubt my favourite read, with a nice mix of current trading and sports commentary, trading selections, scathing attacks and wry humour. So I decided to ask Cassini a few questions over a pint and a packet of pork scratchings down the Red Lion........

What was it that lured you into the trading world?

Pure chance. I stumbled into the world of Betting Exchanges in March of 2004 quite by accident. I had realised many years before, in 1992 in fact, that without inside information, beating the bookmaker with their 110% (or more) books was very difficult, and when I did find a method that was profitable, (Elo ratings in the 1991-92 football season), my accounts were closed, so I was pretty much done with betting. What was the point?

Move forward 12 years, and as I remember it, I was whiling away the hours on a Saturday afternoon with some Internet surfing and my search for "big boobs" must have returned a link to a story about someone's expensive mistake on a Betting Exchange. ‘What's a Betting Exchange?’ I wondered. My interest was piqued, and after reading the details, decided to risk all of £100. Initially it was the prospect of better value that appealed, and when I opened my account with Betfair, trading wasn’t something I had thought about doing.

It seems strange to say now, but back then, the whole idea of trading sports was completely alien to me. I was familiar with the concept of trading, having previously dabbled with trading stocks and options and futures, but while I enjoyed the challenge, I was clearly out of my depth, competing in markets populated by full-time traders who knew far more than I did about the likely direction of Pork Bellies and Orange Juice. The description of sports trading made it sound awfully complicated, but a picture is worth a thousand words (it is said), and after watching the prices move on a few events, I realised it wasn’t as complicated as it sounded and that trading had huge potential.

Which sports do you trade, which one provides most of your income and what do you enjoy about trading them?

I trade many sports, at least to some extent, but the main ones are NBA basketball and the NFL which (usually) keeps me busy from September through June. In the Summer, there’s no one real strong sport, so I play with tennis, golf, baseball and believe it or not, the women’s NBA, which was good to me this year. The NBA is my most profitable sport. Plenty of games, (when there is a season), good liquidity and very much a game of momentum. The same patterns repeat themselves time after time, and with the frequent stoppages in the game, there are plenty of opportunities to get involved. No lead is safe in the NBA, and one minute a team can’t hit the proverbial cow’s arse with a banjo, the next they are dropping in three pointers like there’s no tomorrow.

How would you describe your trading style?

First and foremost, I look for value. I look for situations where a price has been driven too low, and where I have a high degree of confidence based on my experience, that the price will rebound. Time and again you see this happen. I have written on my blog before about laying the NFL team scoring the opening touchdown. The market almost invariably drives the price too low, and it is usually possible to exit for a profit even before the next kick-off is taken. You see this phenomenon in other sports too. People love to be on a winner, sometimes seemingly at any price, and if you take the contrarian position when that price is too short, you will come out ahead in the long run. It’s fear and greed that drive the market and if you can recognize which of these is in the driving seat at any time, you can use this to your advantage. People feel safer in a crowd, but following the crowd blindly is not a long-term winning strategy.

If it's not too personal, what size stakes / liabilities do you work with?

It varies from sport to sport, and will depend on the liquidity. For a highly liquid NFL or NBA match, I will risk up to £3k or £4k, although I have no intention of losing that much. For games where the liquidity is ok, but not that great, then I typically play in the high hundreds, and for sports that I am not so confident about, tennis or golf for example, I don’t usually risk more than £500 at a time.

How long have you been trading for and roughly how long did it take you before you were able to consistently make profit?

As I said earlier, I started out in the Spring of 2004, and after reaching four figures and thinking I’d cracked it (I hadn’t) my balance shrunk to at one time as low as £20. At that point, I decided that I wasn’t going to ever deposit again, and if that money was lost, I would have walked away. That money really was my bank, and I took great care of it. I went into PPC mode (an acronym for "Preserving Precious Capital").

I read some advice which was to "Forget about making money, just try as hard as possible not to lose any" and "The key to being a winning trader is to not lose a lot when you lose. If you cut losses, the winning trades will take care of themselves". Excellent advice, and at the end of August 2005, my balance was back up to £93.11, and by the end of that year, by keeping the winning strategies, and dumping (most of) the losing ones, I was back over four figures. So I would say my ‘apprenticeship’ was close to 18 months, although this is a constantly shifting business which requires constant attention.

What was it that you feel finally enabled you to make that transition from breaking even or losing, to winning consistently?

The advice to try not to lose was key, because it really made me more disciplined in that I would only get involved when I thought I had excellent value. I may have cut winning trades short a little prematurely in those days, but I think when you are working with a small bank, that this is perfectly acceptable.

Did you find trading relatively easy to pick up or have you had to struggle to get past the psychological barriers?

Learning the mechanics of trading is very easy, but mastering it is the hard part. It’s all about identifying the entry and exit points, and sticking to the plan. By nature I am risk averse, so indiscipline is really not a problem. I still find myself getting involved with small amounts on borderline value bets on a quiet day, but chasing is not an issue.

When learning, what did you find the hardest aspect of trading to crack?

The hardest part of trading is identifying the entry and exit points. Anyone can back the unders in a football match, wait five minutes for the price to drop a few ticks, and lock in a profit, but was the entry point value? Was the exit point value? A lot of people consider this to be trading, but to me, without a valid reason to enter or exit a market, it’s gambling. The predictability of price movements is the big problem with trading football in my opinion. The scarcity of goals means that prices trend in a very predictable way, and if the opening price was correct, you are unlikely to find value during the game. If the opening price wasn’t correct, then my approach is to take the value bet and let it run.

What was the biggest mistake you made during your apprentice years?

Without doubt it was pressing the 'submit' button rather than the 'clear' button and backing the loser on a game that had finished but had not yet suspended. I was trying to do too many things at the same time, got distracted, and then absent mindedly wiped out a fair percentage of my bank. I’ve made mistakes since my apprenticeship ended as well though! Recklessly backing Manchester United to win at Newcastle with £5,000 on New Year’s Day 2006 remains my biggest single loss in money terms, while trying to be clever on the dead-heat half-time score in an NBA game was costly when the officials reviewed a three point shot during the interval and reduced it to a two pointer, meaning my ‘value’ lay was now great value for someone else but not for me.

I also learned that alcohol and smart investment decisions do not go well together. One comment about mistakes is that so long as they are not fatal, and you learn from them, they are a perfectly acceptable part of the learning process.

What do you think are the biggest mistakes that new traders make when attempting to become successful?

A couple of mistakes come to mind, one in the preparation, the other in the execution. One is over confidence. Too many people seem to think that profitable trading is just a matter of sitting down at the PC and that somehow the funds will simply roll in. They think that in a sport like horse-racing (something I never touch by the way) they have an edge over insiders and full-time traders with years of experience. Really? Optimism is good, but so too is realism. The other is the need to let winning trades run and cut the losing trades short, whereas the tendency is to do the exact opposite.

Where did you gain the most valuable knowledge and insight as an up-coming novice?

Really it was just from trying different things and from watching how markets move and react to different scenarios. As I mentioned earlier, football is predictable, but dynamic sports such as the NFL are more interesting to me because the price ebbs and flows and you get to recognize patterns repeating, and learn to identify where a price will move next. There is no substitute for experience. Put in the hours and study the game and the markets.

If you could give advice to any aspiring trader, what would it be?

Take a professional approach. Keep records. Put the hours in to learn how markets move. If it was as easy as some people seem to think, we’d all be making thousands each week, so be realistic in your goals. You are going into competition with many other people who all have more experience than you, and many will have far more money than you. Start small and build up, and if you aren’t building up over time, it is because you don’t have an edge. Work on identifying one.

Don’t spread yourself too thin would also be some advice I would offer. There are dozens of events and markets out there, but find sports that interest you, and study them. Make sure you know the rules as well. I’m constantly amazed at how many people trade a sport without knowing the overtime rules or the dead-heat rules. One other comment on choosing your sport is that you have far more chance of success if you target one of the less mainstream sports. Horse-racing and soccer for example have thousands of followers, and your chances of identifying a trading edge in those sports are somewhat slim. Yes, you want liquidity, but some of the US or Australian sports have that, and are far less studied.

Forget all about goals and targets too. They are counter-productive. Bet when the value is there; don’t bet when it isn’t there. Some days there will be several opportunities, while other days there will be none. Having a goal in place doesn’t change that – it merely puts pressure on you to try and meet that goal, and pressure makes for poor decisions.

What qualities do you believe every trader must have in order to be successful?

It’s not a quality as such, but I do believe that to be successful you need to be trading with an untroubled mind and with money that you don’t need. A trading bank should be money that will never be needed for anything else, and this gives you the freedom to make the correct trading decisions. When you are under pressure to make money to feed the family, you are not going to make the right decisions.

A trader needs an understanding of probability and value (it constantly amazes me how some people appear to be unable to grasp the concept of value – e.g. “What good is value if it loses?”) as well as the ability to make quick decisions under pressure. You also need to have a selective memory - to handle big losses you need a short memory, yet when trading, you need to access your long-term memory (where the historical record of what works and what doesn’t work is stored).

Join me tomorrow for the second half of this interview and follow me on Twitter for blog updates and trading chat!

Strong Is Beautiful: Sam Stosur

2011-11-25T14:05:00.004Z

Once again, another very low price for an ATP Tour Finals game today. If only every week was like this for ATP matches, I'm having a great week taking advantage of these over-reactions. I fully expect another tight game for Djokovic. Tipsarevic has nothing to play for but he'll want to end his season with a huge scalp and there's no doubt that he can beat a less than impressive world number one right now. 1.36 SP is worth a lay from the off as I think Tipsarevic will push for at least one set. Don't think just because they are mates that Janko will let his fellow Serb have an easy ride to the semi final.

The evening game sees Berdych needing to win to have any chance of qualifying, whilst Ferrer is already through. Ferrer normally gives his all in every single game but will he still do so today? I'm not so sure but there is definite advantage in topping the group - he won't have to play Federer in the semi. Therefore, this is one to watch in-play and read the game.

Strong Is Beautiful: Vera Zvonareva

2011-11-24T12:21:00.009Z

World number 7 Vera Zvonareva of Russia is another great character on the WTA tour. Famous for her racquet smashing tantrums and head-under-the-towel moments, she has only over the past year or so started to calm down. She's a great example of how learning to control your emotions can reap rewards, as she is now one of the best players in the world and regular challenger in all major tournaments.

Roger Federer is a laughable 1.11 to beat Mardy Fish today. He'll almost certainly win but I cannot believe people are out there backing anyone in this tournament to win at that price. He was sensational against Nadal but he has qualified now and so will surely be more likely to take his foot off the gas and save energy for the semi final. Fish has nothing to play for but pride unfortunately, though that may be enough to make him play more freely and give this one a real go. You just never know in tennis!

Tsonga v Nadal should be a cracker, with the winner going through and loser going out. I fancy a 3 setter here but it's definitely a game that needs to be assessed in-play. Odds seem about right, I would make Tsonga slight fave.

If you've not yet seen my interviews with The Geek, TradeShark and Mark Iverson, take a look around, well worth a peek.

Strong Is Beautiful: Li Na

2011-11-23T12:38:00.008Z

Li Na/ Na li is now officially the 2nd highest paid female athlete in the world, following various endorsements after her French Open win which made her the first Asian player to win a Grand Slam. She has signed contracts worth $42 million which are set to take her above Maria Sharapova next year, who earned $25 million in 2011.

Yet again, I'm staggered at the starting price of the matches at the ATP World Tour Final. OK, Tsonga won fairly comfortably yesterday but I stand by my assessment that his SP of 1.5 was way too low. Again, we see a low 1.5, this time on Tomas Berdych. Janko Tipsarevic has beaten him twice this year already and in the 3rd and most recent encounter, was 5-0 or 5-1 up in set 1, playing stunning tennis before he let the Czech back in to take the set. He was also a break up in set 2 and I'm still not sure how Tipsaervic didn't win that match. He'll be fresher than Berdych, as he hasn't played a game yet. I don't think he'll take long to adapt to the court as it's similar in pace to St Petersburg, where he was a finalist. I'll be laying 1.5 all day long, as I think it'll be a close match, though who wins is anyone's guess.

Djokovic is understandably low but he didn't impress against Berdych, having to save match point before scraping through. He should win today but Ferrer will be full of confidence after beating Murray, so again, expect a slow start from Novak, who I feel is still struggling with his shoulder.

Strong Is Beautiful: Victoria Azarenka

2011-11-22T12:29:00.005Z

World number 3 Victoria Azarenka is a real character on the tour. She's calmed down a lot from a couple of years ago, where she would regularly get into arguments with the crowd, umpires and generally rub people up the wrong way. She tends to channel her feistiness a bit better these days, though you can always rely on a bit of drama still, whether it be obviously tanking matches, fainting on-court or dropping out with yet another 'injury' accompanied by tears. I don't think she's this terrible match-fixer that others on certain forums will have you believe, I just think she is a real drama-queen who loves to be the centre of attention and doesn't always think before she acts. There is a lot of passion and determination about Vika and she's a potential world number one for next year.

Today's London matches seem to have immense value at first look. Both Federer and Tsonga seem rather low at around 1.5. Sure, I expect Federer to beat Nadal but 1.5? I said previously I think Nadal will not get near the final and his performance against Fish hasn't done anything to make me change my mind but I expect him to push close for at least one set.

Tsonga's price is a joke. Fish wasn't far off beating Nadal and outplayed him for large sections of that first match. Unless Fish has aggravated his hamstring again, I don't see how they aren't close to evens. Tsonga drops the first set regularly too, so a lay from the start is very tempting indeed..............

Strong Is Beautiful: Kim Clijsters

2011-11-21T14:06:00.004Z

Clijsters has slipped to 13 in the world with all her time out through injury. No one is sure what 2012 holds for the Belgian, as many feel she will retire next year, this time for good. Perhaps Olympic gold will keep her motivated enough to play more tournaments up to August because even when fit, she has been nothing more than part-time on the WTA tour since her spectacular return to the game.

Today sees Andy Murray up against David Ferrer in London. Can't see anything other than 2-0 to the miserable Scot but there is always the chance that he will make a signature slow start and even drop the first set - let's hope so, cos otherwise, extracting money from this match is gonna be very difficult.

Djokovic looks well priced at 1.46 in the evening match but don't be fooled - he's not been playing well for a few weeks now. His self-belief is so high that he can scrape through games when not playing well but against the very best, he is not likely to have that luxury. Berdych has been playing well lately and can win this, absolutely no doubt. The courts are probably not fast enough for the Czech and will favour the Serb but I will be watching before getting involved. Don't be surprised if Novak starts poorly, he has done so in a number of matches recently.

Strong Is Beautiful: Gisela Dulko

2011-11-20T13:42:00.007Z

World number 68 and doubles number 9 Gisela Dulko of Argentina is today's photo from the 'Strong Is Beautiful' photo-shoot. Great to see some tennis on today, as the ATP World Tour Finals begin in London. Roger Federer plays Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to start with and the market is heavily in favour of the Swiss, who I would make (alongside Murray) favourite to win the whole tournament. His form is first-class having won two tournaments back-to-back. Tsonga has beaten him this year but he's one of those players who looks like he's running out of steam after a long season.

Nadal also looks like he's ready for the beach and hasn't played in several weeks. I don't see him reaching the final but he is strong fave to beat Mardy Fish today. Fish has a groin strain from Paris, so have to see whether he's fully recovered. If so, he definitely could catch Nadal cold and has beaten him this year despite having a dreadful record against the Spaniard overall. Nadal looks as though he's lost confidence as a result of his losses to Djokovic and he is looking much more beatable these days. But it's possible the long rest he's had may have done him good and he'll come out rejuvenated.

If you've not seen my interviews with The Geek, Mark Iverson and TradeShark, have a scout around, well worth reading.

Interview with The Geek

2011-11-18T12:20:00.003Z

Everyone in the trading world knows about The Geeks Toy - a free piece of software that enables all users to connect to the Bet**** API and trade like a pro, with a fully customisable ladder interface. But not many know about the man behind The Toy, The Geek himself. As a user of The Toy for a while now, I was curious about many things and so dropped by his house for a cup of tea and a Jaffa Cake.........

I've seen you mention on your forum that you are not into sports. How on earth did you end up getting involved in the sports trading field?!

Ahh the secret is out. I’ve never really been into sport per se. I do watch the World Cup & Euro footie, but that is more to do with national pride & beer than an interest in the game. I came across Betfair in early 2007 when I was researching another project, and as part of that research I stumbled across an article on trading software. The rest is history.

Do you actually do any trading and if so, what do you trade (and do you use The Toy *wink*)?

I trade only horses, predominantly in running, with some pre off in between. And yes, of course I use The Toy. My trading wasn’t profitable until I started using it in mid 2009. Between work and The Toy, I get very little time to trade these days, although I’ll always put a few days in testing a new major release for stability.

What is your technological / work / computing background?

I’m a self taught programmer who did it purely for fun until 1995, where I went to college to do a computing course. It was then I realised just how good I was, and in many respects had technical skills way in advance of those being taught. I was accepted to University for a software engineering degree in 1996. I started my techie career in 1998 on a 1 year industrial placement where I began working for a company that developed data warehousing & publishing systems for the automotive industry. By 2002 I was IT manager of one of their subsidiary companies. I set up my own company in 2003 writing bespoke systems for clients in the automotive industry & this is how I feed my kids today. {Ironically though I don’t drive either.}

How long has The Toy been in progress and what sort of time scale did it take to get it completed?

I started writing The Toy in August 2007, but it has never been full time & I just did it around contracts. The first test version was launched in October 2009, although I doubt it will ever be completed, as everyone and their uncle wants something added somewhere.

Just for people like me, who are completely clueless when it comes to computer technology and programming, how does the process work; from getting Betfair on-board, to marketing the product?

Getting Betfair on board is the easy part, as they have a very good developers program that subject to you paying them an access fee for your product to use their API and your product passing their certification requirements, you are ready to go.
As for marketing the product, the bare minimum starting points for a product like this are a good user manual, some introductory vids, and good user support via a forum.

To be honest though, I’ve had to do very little active marketing / advertising for The Toy as when you have a product this good at this price, the word of mouth recommendations dwarf into insignificance anything I could do myself. { On that note, why is Betdaq’s banner above mine? :D }

Roughly how much of your time is taken up with work related to The Toy?

Too much.

Why have you always kept The Toy free?

Insanity I suspect would be the answer to that one. If I charged for it I’d have to grow up & run it as a business and where would the fun be in that? In all seriousness though, I am very well paid in my day job and charging for TT would take me away from that and I suspect I would actually earn less as a result as this industry is very small.

All I want for Christmas is a new Toy for Betdaq - will Santa oblige this year?

Hopefully. The first release has been on test with a few of the pros since August, and the latest release is currently going through testing with Betdaq at the moment, but as for an actual launch date, I can’t say at this juncture as I’m waiting on Betdaq to approve it. Sometime between now & forever, but hopefully nearer the now is the planned launch date. :D

I regard your forum as the best source of knowledge on the net for sports trading and an extremely friendly place. Are you surprised at how it's turned out?

Not really. The founding members of the forum were mainly pro traders who were refugees from a forum that spectacularly imploded in 2009. When we set up the forum we learned from the mistakes of the past and put appropriate rules in place to ensure the same thing didn’t happen again. The key ingredient to its success I believe is to keep the forum completely free of spam & advertising, and let the community play an important part in it’s running.

What do you enjoy most about your work on The Toy and what are your biggest frustrations?

I think the best thing about it has to be reading the praise it gets in cyberspace. I liken my programming to art, and it’s good to have critics to make it better. It’s also a real thrill when you read things like the below from people that really appreciate that work.
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28222097/best-trading-software
As for my biggest frustration, that trophy goes to Betfair, although I won’t say why.

What are your future plans for The Toy?

I don’t really have plans for it per se. There is a release due soon with some more goodies in it, but after that short of bug fixes, I’m going to have some well deserved time off for a few months as I have another project that I will be working on.

As someone who is not into sports, what is your take on the whole betting exchange and sports trading industry?

If I’m totally honest, I think the wider industry is over populated by blaggers & chancers whom dishonestly represent the industry with Get Rich Quick & Holy Grail marketing tactics. That said, trading on the exchanges is one of the best strategy games I have ever played, and it does provide the opportunity to consistently win if you are both clever and prepared to put in many hours of hard work.

I liken GeeksToy.com to a cross between a 21st century bookmakers and a poker room, where everyone is competing for each others money, but doing so as a community of mates helping each other on the journey. There are also a few other good communities out there, one such being run by a deluded Yorkshireman who thinks he’s a shark that you interviewed previously. :D

I've used every sports trading software out there and The Toy wins hands down in my opinion. What do you think makes The Toy stand out against its competitors?

In no particular order:

Speed: I developed The Toy on a low spec PC & 512mb broadband connection, so I used every trick in the book to make it fast & smooth on a crap system. This was no mean feat & probably accounted for 30% of the overall development effort. Feedback from the community says I got this spot on, as they notice real differences in performance compared to other products.

Customisation: What I also found when I researched the marketplace in 2007 was that all the trading products at the time were all virtual clones of each other. { Every single one had 3 near identical ladders for example. } My take is that if I have to spend day after day looking at the same thing, then it needs to be pleasing on the eye & the way I want it. With everyone being different, flexibility & customisation is key.

Price: Unless somebody is going to pay you to use their software, you really can’t beat the price. Although I have to say that whilst the price gets people's attention, the product has to be good in this game to keep them. There have been a number of free trading products for Betfair over the years, but The Toy is the first one to make any significant impact.

Listening to People: I welcome criticism as it helps make a better product. I am also acquainted with a number of pro traders who have had significant input into the product during all development phases.

Design: Design is key, as a product needs to be simple & intuitive to use, whilst at the same time powerful & flexible. It’s a tough thing to do, and most programmers get this part wrong.

Tell us all something about The Geek that we might now know. Who is the man behind the specs?

Between the ages of 16 & 18 I travelled around with a funfair. Best 2 years of my life and not a computer in sight! To be honest though, I’m not your stereotypical geek and if you were to meet me it would be like meeting a cross between Uncle Fester from the Adams Family & Phil Mitchell from Eastenders.

Thanks very much to The Geek for giving such a great insight into his world. Plus, Christmas has all of a sudden gotten exciting again for the first time in about 20 years! I have received news from The Geek himself that the Betdaq version is going to be with us very, very soon.........

So if you aren't using The Toy yet, why not? The release of Version 1.2 Beta with Stop Loss, Dutching, Bookmaking, Multibet tool & the new In-Play interface, is due to be released on Monday.

And if you are, I hope you appreciate even more just how lucky you are and that you consider donating towards today's 'Children In Need' charity fundraiser, run by The Geek on his forum. There are prize giveaways and auctions to take part in to try and raise £1000 for BBC Children In Need, which takes place over this weekend. Take a look:

“The Geeks Toy - Probably the best Betfair Trading Software in the world!”

Sepp Blatter & Maria Kirilenko

2011-11-17T10:19:00.017Z

Blatter - I just don't know whether to laugh or cry! The photo on the FIFA website with his arms around a black official, is a hilariously pathetic and crass attempt to placate those who question El Presidente. But as someone who has experienced racism, I also am deeply saddened and repulsed that the man at the head of the 'Say No To Racism' campaign, could possibly say that we should just accept whatever names we are called on the pitch and shake hands with our tormentor at the end of the game. I'm not suggesting that Blatter is a racist, only he himself with truly know that, but to have someone representing the world game to think and to say something so flippant and so out of touch with reality, proves just how little he actually knows about the subject. Therefore, he should not be anywhere near a position of power that deals with such an important issue.

I can tell you that whenever I have experienced racism, it has never once been forgotten about or shrugged off. Those insults stay with you for life and I remember each and every time. To compare those vile jibes to a bit of banter on the football field is simply a joke. So it was great to see so many people of all races on Twitter last night, joining in with Stan Collymore (ex-Nottingham Forest player -you reeeeeeeeeeds!- and sports journalist) as he lead the fight to get Blatter out of FIFA. It won't happen of course. But we have to make a stand. We need the English FA to make a stand too. We need all the other confederations to make a stand to have any impact but I wouldn't hold my breath.

From what I can gather, this is barely a newsworthy story in the rest of Europe. Hardly surprising when most of these nations are light-years away from kicking racism out of football, compared to the UK. FIFA lets most of these nations get away with a pitiful monetary fine when their fans abuse black players, so what do they have to gain from ousting Blatter? Nonetheless, I urge you to join the #BlatterOUT campaign, even if all you are really bothered about is toppling this clown from his ivory tower.

And now, here's a picture of the beautiful Maria Kirilenko

Strong Is Beautiful: Serena Williams

2011-11-16T14:21:00.008Z

Has slipped to number 12 in the world following her time out of the sport with illness that almost ended her life earlier in the year. Hopefully we'll see her back for the Australian Open in January, though preferably without the brattish petulance she showed in the last match she played. That was the US Open final, where she lost to Sam Stosur after abusing the lovely Eva Asderaki. The Greek umpire is one of the best on the tour and yes, it does help that she's rather easy on the eye!

If you haven't read my interviews with TradeShark and Mark Iverson, well, they are on here somewhere so don't be lazy and have a look around!

Strong Is Beautiful: Caroline Wozniacki

2011-11-15T14:34:00.006Z

Well, still no markets up for the Challenger Tour Finals which start tomorrow - cheers Betunfair! I can't understand what sort of idiot would not put up a market for a tournament that includes some top 100 players, that will be televised (and so have streams available) when there is no other tennis on at all! How is that good business sense? Even if there were only a handful of traders getting involved, Betunfair would only make money, what do they have to lose? In fact, they haven't even bothered to email me back to answer whether they will be adding the markets. Well, save for a customer service questionnaire! You can imagine what I wrote when I submitted that...........

If you've yet to read my interviews with Mark Iverson and TradeShark, scroll down the page and you'll find them.

Mark Iverson Interview

2011-11-14T12:51:00.002Z

Well it's gonna be a quiet week for tennis traders (unless we get those ATP Challenger Tour Finals markets up - get emailing everybody!) so here is something to keep you entertained and maybe glean a few nuggets of inspiration from. It's my interview with one of the most well-known sports traders in the online world, Mark Iverson; a man who has reached a level with his trading that the vast majority of us are looking to attain. I'm sure most of you are familiar with his website and blog already, so no need for a major introduction - just have a read and take on-board some sound advice.....

What was it that lured you into the trading world?

My history with gambling started a long time ago. When I was very young I had a condition with my hip that kept me from going to school for the best part of two years. The only person available to look after me was my Grandfather so every afternoon he’d push my wheelchair to the betting shop where we’d end up fighting the smoke to try and pick some winners. My parents didn’t mind this daily routine until I started back at school. Every morning I’d scan the daily paper to study the racecards and give my tips for the day. They stopped the paper soon after, but that was it – I was hooked.

As I grew older my fascination grew and I became convinced that it was possible to make money from betting on sport but at that point I didn’t know how. I created system after system to try and beat the bookies and got to the point where I was making small annual profits, but it took a long time for the penny to drop on how to make more.

Which sports do you trade, which one provides most of your income and what do you enjoy about trading them?

The majority of my action focuses on cricket with 75-80% of my profits coming from that sport alone. I’m always trying new things though and have good ‘fallbacks’ in Rugby Union, Darts and NFL.

How would you describe your trading style?

I consider myself a position taker, but those positions can vary in length from a few seconds to an hour.

If it's not too personal, what size stakes / liabilities do you work with?

My stake sizes differ and depend on a number of things such as the confidence in my position and the volatility of the market, but to give you an idea they’re normally in the £500 to £4000 range. I very rarely hold positions until the end of an event and will almost always even my book at some stage. I’m acutely aware that I’m still a very small fish in a very big pond.

How long have you been trading for and roughly how long did it take you before you were able to consistently make profit?

In the summer of 2006 I was at a crossroads. I really felt that I’d exhausted all the punting possibilities around and it was only through a bit of luck that my gambling transformation began. I’d bought the book, ‘Lay, Back & Think Of Winning’ written by Nigel Paul to take on holiday and whilst reading it realised that with a relatively small amount of money I’d be able to grow it through careful money management if I adopted a slightly different betting approach.

I’d been a Betfair customer for 5 years, but although I’d heard and previously attempted ‘trading’ on the exchange I’d never felt fully comfortable with the idea. Until then. The book inspired me and within days I was thinking of scores of different strategies for every sport I could think of. I gathered £250 as a starting bank but swore to myself that if I squandered it I wouldn’t top up the account.

Fortunately, I haven’t had a losing month since and although my monthly profits were small to begin with they’ve grown significantly and my annual profit has increased year on year. I hope the trend continues!

What was it that you feel finally enabled you to make that transition from breaking even or losing, to winning consistently?

Careful money management and understanding that I didn’t have to be right all the time. If I ensured that I kept losses small then I became confident that when the big wins came along the rest would take care of itself.

Did you find trading relatively easy to pick up or have you had to struggle to get past the psychological barriers?

I found the first 6 months the most difficult. Until then the ‘punting’ mentality would have a habit of kicking in but over time this faded.

When learning, what did you find the hardest aspect of trading to crack?

Knowing when to be patient! I had an urge to be involved all the time and it took a while to realise that my overall p&l figures would actually be much better if I was more selective.

What was the biggest mistake you made during your apprentice years?

I probably wasted too much time and money on sports that weren’t going to yield results. Looking back I’d have probably been better off narrowing the line-up to 3 or 4 sports much earlier on.

What do you think are the biggest mistakes that new traders make when attempting to become successful?

I would say risk management is where most fall down. If you’re consistently staking 100% of your bankroll on a 50/50 shot then you’ll go bust sooner rather than later. The secret is in staying at the table.

Where did you gain the most valuable knowledge and insight as an up-coming novice?

Mainly, I just kept reading. From gambling forums to recommended books on betting and human psychology, they all came in useful. In addition I also started a blog in December 2006 to plot my progress. I had two main aims – the first was to diarise what I was doing so that I could learn from my mistakes and the second was to inspire anybody who felt they needed money to make money. I guess I wanted to back-up advice I’d been given from an already successful gambler – “that big things are possible from small beginnings”.

If you could give advice to any aspiring trader, what would it be?

Knowledge is everything so specialise in a handful of sports and aim to be the one who knows more than the majority.

What qualities do you believe every trader must have in order to be successful?

I strongly believe you need a plan and need to be organised. Having a clear mind is crucial and helps stave off any temptations to squander profits. A good head for numbers also helps.

What do you still struggle with mostly as a trader and what aspects are you still working at to improve?

I am probably still too risk averse. I prefer a string of steady wins and an accumulation of profits rather than volatile fluctuations. The downside of this is that I rarely get what I would call big wins.

Do you ever have days where you lose focus or discipline, how regularly does it happen and how do you deal with it?

Yes, occasionally, but this is my job now so I realise that if I’m not 100% I’m going to lose money. The downward spiral will nearly always continue if I’m down on myself or don’t have the right frame of mind. Instead, I often reflect on how far I’ve come or just what I need to do to get back on track. Breaking things down into small steps can be a great help.

What are the major differences between trading as a hobby / part-time and trading full-time?

I now have much more time now to go the extra yards. By that I mean the extra research and detail that I just didn’t have time to do when working full time. This does make a difference as I find myself coming up with many more angles than the ones I used to rely on.

What advice would you give to anyone thinking about making the step from part-time to full-time?

Have a back-up plan in place. It’s a very big step to take and now that Betfair have changed their Premium Charge rules it’s very unlikely you can rely on them for all of your future income. Prior to going full time I reduced my risk by reducing my outgoings wherever possible and cleared all of my outstanding debt, (bar my mortgage) to free me of any emotional baggage that could bring me down at the earliest opportunity.

How has the Betunfair premium charge affected your trading?

Fortunately, I’ve yet to reach the 250k Premium Charge threshold that would kiss good bye to 50% of my weekly profits, but I have consistently paid 20% over the last 3 years. The truth is it’s a pain but at least 20% still gives you a chance. If/when I get to 50% it will be a complete game changer for me.

What is the biggest win and worst loss you've ever had (either trading or gambling)?

I lost just short of 2.5k in one day last year when trading the Indian Premier League cricket. This might not seem like a lot to those who are used to bigger fluctuations but for someone who is a plodder like myself this was a big blow at the time.

What do you most love and most hate about trading?

The best things all surround having the freedom to manage my time. It’s great to be able to wake up in the morning and be my own boss. If I want to make more money I know I need to work harder but if I want to spend time with the family I can. The worst things? I guess it’s easy to feel isolated if you don’t make an effort to get out and about, and there’s always a shortage of people who understand what I do. No matter which way you look at it, there’s still a social stigma attached to being a gambler.

What do you feel the future holds for betting exchanges, the markets and yourself as a trader?

The idea of betting exchanges is such a good one that I’m sure they’ll continue to prosper but maybe not in the same format as we’re familiar with now as if the American market opens up anything could happen. As for myself it’s just a case of business as usual until I either start losing or am forced to stop. Watch this space.

Big thanks to Mark for taking the time to answer my questions. Certainly does make me feel like the tiniest minnow in the Pacific Ocean but also realise that it's possible to grow into a Blue Whale. OK, maybe not a whale (they are mammals anyway so doesn't work for the fish analogy), but perhaps a Blue Marlin. Or a Salmon might be more realistic. Actually, a gold-fish would be fine for me!

Strong Is Beautiful: Maria Sharapova

2011-11-13T14:40:00.003Z

World number 4, most recognisable name in women's sport and highest earner of all time, Maria Sharapova. Still hate her screaming after every hit though - there's a time and a place for that kind of noise......

If you've yet to read my interview with TradeShark, scroll down the page and you'll find it. Keep an eye on the blog next week as I've got some very interesting new stuff primed and ready for your reading pleasure.

Strong Is Beautiful: Andrea Petkovic

2011-11-12T03:10:00.001Z

Next in the Strong Is Beautiful photo-shoot series is the German world number 10.

TRADESHARK INTERVIEW

Strong Is Beautiful: Ana Ivanovic

2011-11-10T15:46:00.009Z

Above is a picture of the stunning Ana Ivanovic, one of the many shots taken as part of the New York Times incredible 'Strong Is Beautiful' photo-shoot for an article published earlier this year. The photos have since been adopted by the WTA for their latest advertising campaign and as you can see, the images captured are wonderful. I felt it would be rude not to share them with you all, so I'll be posting a new one every few days - they make great screen-savers too!

By the way, if you've not yet seen my interview with TradeShark, why not check it out:

TRADESHARK INTERVIEW

Tradeshark Interview

2011-11-09T09:38:00.001Z

Well, here we go! I told you I was veering away from the blogging of my trading struggles as the tennis season comes to a close and today I begin with an interview with Tradeshark, author of the Tradeshark Tennis blog. I'm sure you are all familiar with his work, as he has become over the last couple of years, a prominent figure in the online trading community, with his own strategies (which I bought myself in order to get a foothold into tennis trading), trading chatroom and forum. Undoubtedly, he's the most well known and respected of any specialist tennis trader out there and so it was only natural I start this new phase of 'Centre Court Trading' with a chat with the man himself.

What was it that lured you into the trading world?

I was looking for ways to make a little extra cash and found Adam Todd's story. I played around with trading horses ( on the grid as I was too tight to
pay for a ladder!). I was doing ok but was very limited as to when I could trade.
I started looking into other sports and saw that tennis was a popular one. I used to play tennis to a decent standard when I was younger so started looking into ways to trade it.

How would you describe your trading style?

I don't like to take huge risks. However in certain circumstances I will be more aggressive if it is a tried and tested entry. Generally though I like to keep it as stress free as possible

If it's not too personal, what size stakes / liabilities do you work with?

These vary in different circumstances and also with different sports. For tennis I very rarely put more than £500 into the market in one go but will top up if the situation merits it. Usually my stake is split into £200 to £300 chunks. I actually often use bigger stakes in cricket but will keep liability under £500 to £600.

How long have you been trading for and roughly how long did it take you before you were able to consistently make profit?

Probably about 3 years now and I'd say I was able to make profits pretty quickly, say within the first 3 or 4 months but only very small profits. I had little idea of what I was doing or should be doing!

What was it that you feel finally enabled you to make that transition from breaking even or losing, to winning consistently?

As I said I was able to make profits pretty quickly. I think like most things in life the more you do it and learn about it the better you become. Just experiencing more scenarios and learning how best to deal with them.

Did you find trading relatively easy to pick up or have you had to struggle to get past the psychological barriers?

I found ways to trade and make profit that worked for me and I just stuck with those so in that respect it was easy. I kept things very simple. There was no one telling you what you should be doing so it was all trial and error. If anything the psychological barriers come into play when your head gets filled with other people's ideas that may not suit your own style.

When learning, what did you find the hardest aspect of trading to crack?

I would often see a match that had already started and think I had seen a great entry point ( I'm talking about within 10 seconds) and I would jump in so I didn't miss out. More often than not rather than getting an easy profit I would be trying to dig myself out of a hole for the next hour.

What was the biggest mistake you made during your apprentice years?

One that sticks in my mind was on a Man United game. I forget the details other than it was probably a lay the draw and I stood to lose £100. It was in the final minutes of the match and still 0-0. The red mist came down and I backed the draw for 1k. Of course Man U scored within seconds of me being matched. That loss was around 75% of my bank. Incredible to think I could have been so stupid!

What do you think are the biggest mistakes that new tennis traders make when attempting to become successful?

The most common seem to be winning too soon! They back 2 or 3 favourites and they win in straight sets. They think they have cracked it and increase the stakes.
The biggest thing I stress to new traders is to use very small stakes while learning. You don't learn more by having more money in the market but you lose less. Especially in the chatroom it can be obvious that someone is new and using stakes way above the amounts that they should be. They will be advised to lower their stakes and half an hour later they're complaining that they lost £100. Some people you just can't help.

Where did you gain the most valuable knowledge and insight as an up-coming novice?

There really weren't people willing to help back then. You could pick up the occasional snippet of information that might spark an idea in your head but you were pretty much on your own.

If you could give advice to any aspiring tennis trader, what would it be?

As I said above don't be in a rush to increase stakes. Even when you feel you are ready to increase them you MUST do it gradually. A general rule of thumb is that when you enter your trade if you shit yourself at the size of the red on the other player then the stakes are too high! You also need to learn as much as you can about the top players. Take an interest in the results from the previous day. After a while you will start to see patterns. Always look for patterns.

What qualities do you believe every tennis trader must have in order to be successful?

The ability to read a game inplay is an obvious bonus but above everything else you need to stay calm whether things are going well or badly. If trading is exciting then you're doing it wrong( and probably gambling )!

What do you still struggle with mostly as a trader and what aspects are you still working at to improve?

Too often I am too cautious when it comes to deciding whether or not to let a trade run a bit longer. There are worse problems to have but it can be annoying when you leave money on the table and if I had just stayed another few points then
I was in a very comfortable position. So that's what I am working on.

Do you ever have days where you lose focus or discipline, how regularly does it happen and how do you deal with it?

I think everyone does from time to time. If I spot it early then I stop trading for a couple of hours. If I didn't have the chatroom then I would go out for an hour or watch TV but I feel I really ought to be available in the chatroom.

What are the major differences between trading as a hobby / part-time and trading full-time?

Pressure! You have got to make money and that adds another dimension to your trading decisions. This was a major problem in the first 6 months of going full time.
It was made worse by the family/marriage problems I was having at the time and my confidence took a real kicking.

What advice would you give to anyone thinking about making the step from part-time to full-time?

Think again! Make sure you have at least 6 months living expenses saved up. It really isn't easy to make the transition. I thought it wouldn't affect me but it did.

How has the Betunfair super-premium charge affected your trading?

Well I don't pay the super premium, thankfully, but I have seen a difference in the markets as some of the big players are either trading differently or not at all. Bigger gaps between prices and no one is too keen to leave money unmatched for very long.

What is the biggest win and worst loss you've ever had (either trading or gambling)?

The biggest win was in an IPL Twenty20 match. I layed a batting team for £1500 just before a total collapse. I came out with just under £1400. Oddly my biggest loss was exactly the same amount, £1400. That was on a tennis match but apart from that I don't remember a single detail of the match. Must have been too traumatic!

What do you most love and most hate about trading?

I love the freedom of being my own boss but sometimes it can be long hours. I think I put more hours in as I have over 2000 members of TradeShark Tennis and a good number of them send daily emails asking for advice and help. I would rather be busy than wondering why no one is emailing me though! I don't think there is anything that I hate about it. No one is going to pay me the amount of money I can make and I don't have to answer to anyone.

What do you do in the tennis off-season and do you find the lack of tennis a problem?

Last December was my first as a full timer. I traded some football and cricket and even had a go at the FTSE 20min markets. This year it will be football and cricket again but I now have a method of trading the horse markets that seems to suit me quite well (thanks to Lee in the chatroom for pointing me in the right direction). It's actually nice to have a break from the tennis!

Who are your favourite tennis players and which ones do you generally enjoy trading?

Melzer used to be one of my favourites. At one time you knew he was going to fight for every point. You can't say that these days. Ferrer is a player who you know will give everything. Plus he often goes behind and comes back! Del Potro when he is at his best is awesome, even though he usually has a look on his face like a lobotomy patient! It's been great to see him this week playing nearer what we expect from him.
It's easier to say which players I don't like trading. Verdasco is a nightmare for me and usually ends in a loss. Also Cilic and Baggy (Marcos Baghdatis) are hard work sometimes although Verdasco is definitely the worst. I was relieved when Patty Schnyder retired. I think I only ever profited on one of her matches and actually ran round the garden cheering afterwards!

How do you think the tennis markets and the game of tennis have changed since you've been trading?

I don't know if it is just my perception of it but player's games seem a lot more fragile these days. There used to be players who you could rely on to hold having broken serve but they all seem to have turned into mental midgets! Whether this is due to string technology or different balls or better training techniques with regard to returning serve I don't know! The markets seem thinner as I said before with traders being less willing to leave money unmatched in the market. The reactions to points can often briefly be way out of proportion and whilst they quickly correct, I think poeple are wary of being hit by market "snipers".

What do you feel the future holds for betting exchanges, the tennis markets and yourself as a trader?

Wow, save the toughest question to the end! The markets have always and will always evolve and we as traders have to do the same. I think Betfair seem to be doing their best to screw their own business and unless they see sense then Betdaq will need to put themselves in a position to take over a great deal of that traffic. But all this will happen gradually ( I hope ) and we will be able to make the required changes
in stages. My own style of trading is designed to be low on risk and therefore low on stress so I am confident I will be able to continue for a good while yet. I
always have one eye open for new ideas and opportunities as I know it's never wise to rest on your laurels.

Thanks to Tradeshark for sparing his time. Good to know I'm not the only one with a dislike, verging on manic hatred, of Fernando Verdasco! In fact, the two games he played at Paris this week pretty much summed up why we'd both like to cosh his coiffured, wax-ridden head, back to Madrid. Watch this space for more new spots to come............

ATP Challenger Tour Finals

2011-11-08T13:39:00.003Z

No, I'm not talking about the World Tour Finals due to take place in London in 2 weeks! I'm talking about the inaugural CHALLENGER finals, which will begin next week. They take place in São Paulo from 16-20 November, which is ideal because there is no other tennis available that week. Or at least, it WOULD be ideal if our friendly betting exchange emporiums (and Betfair too) had markets set up for it. I've already emailed to make them aware of this unique opportunity to take our hard earned cash and I advise all you tennis traders to do the same.

Ok, it's only Rui Machado, Martin Klizan, Andreas Beck, Matthias Bachinger, Dudi Sela, Bobby Reynolds and Cedrik-Marcel Stebe but hey, it's something to trade and liquidity will be strong with no other tennis on. If that doesn't tempt you, there is also wild card entrant Thomaz Bellucci, who I'm sure you'll have heard of! Bit unfair to have a top 30 player thrown in to make up the numbers but I suppose it will add to the atmosphere at the event to have a local player involved. I've traded on matches involving all those players this year (bar Bobby Reynolds), so if you know your stuff, ranking should never be an issue. Here's the full details:

ATP Challenger Tour Finals

Now get emailing so we can get those markets up!

Bizarre Bali Blessing

2011-11-07T12:19:00.002Z

I heard a very interesting story today, especially for those of you with a spiritual persuasion. The WTA Commonwealth Bank Tournament of Champions took place last week in Bali. The final was contested between reigning champion Ana Ivanovic and the rank outsider Anabel Medina-Garrigues. Apparently, before the tournament began, all 8 competitors were invited to attend some sort of spiritual blessing ceremony at a local temple on the Indonesian island.

Medina-Garrigues was the only player to turn-up (remarkable in itself, as you would think these girls would show a bit more common courtesy) and was asked as part of the good-luck ritual, what she would like to acheive for the week. Apparently, the Spaniard said she would like to reach the final. Lo and behold, the tournament under-dog (oldest player in the draw at 29 and lowest ranked at 28) made it past her two opponents to face the Serbian former world number one. But it was the way she did it that is most fascinating; both Marion Bartoli AND Sabine Lisicki retired against her!

Bartoli wasted a match point which would have given her a straight sets win before she was struck down with a calf injury one game into the final set. The poor girl was in tears, hobbling around in pain after a medical time-out and finished her season slumped on the court, losing a match she had dominated. Lisicki was expected to hammer Medina-Garrigues in the semi-final but lost the first set before gaining her form and powering back for what would surely be a comfortable final set. But no, the German who reached the Wimbledon semi-final this year, picked up a back injury early in set 3, severely restricting her movement and forcing her to retire at 4-0 down! Makes you think, does it not? Especially as Anabel was thrashed in the final by Ivanovic - if only she'd said at the temple that she wanted to WIN the tournament...............

Mental Exhaustion

2011-11-05T17:30:00.006Z

I've made a few decisions today. I cannot go on writing about all the mental torment I go through. To be honest, I don't think there is anything more that I can do to improve now. I've tried everything; from changing what I eat, to how I sit, to the room layout, to exercises, to breathing techniques, to hypnosis, to all sorts of different plans and little practical solutions. They have all worked to some extent but sustaining it all over a long period has been the main issue. At the end of the day, they are only ever going to work long-term if I can somehow take away the pressure of doing this full-time and needing the money. That is the real crux of the problem and it is what causes me to make daft mistakes constantly. But I don't see that pressure disappearing any time soon, bar a lottery win or a superb run of form. Fingers crossed for the latter.

I guess what I'm saying is, I'm done analysing the negatives and recording it all on here. I'm exhausted of all the mental exhaustion, to be frank! I honestly don't think there is any more that I can do apart from continually working, day in day out, on controlling my emotions, retaining my focus and remaining professional. Psychologically, I've improved massively of late and I'm confident that I won't lose my bank ever again or do anything to place it in jeopardy.

I'm happy with my strategy now and will be concentrating on my strengths (WTA) next year, rather than struggling too much with the ATP (although I'm pretty sure it would not be such an issue without the pressure I'm under). So there really isn't much left for me to write about, regarding my battle to get my trading right. Everything is in place to do well, bar two important things: a decent size bank and a lack of financial pressure. Which unfortunately, are two of the biggest obstacles to success in this game, especially when twinned together. All I can do now is continue to follow the plan I currently have in place (the last one I will ever draw up!), which is as follows:

1. Mentally re-set myself before every match
2. Thoroughly plan a course of action before getting involved
3. Talk during the game to continually assess, retain focus and plan ahead
4. Remain patient, reminding myself to stay in the present & forget previous results
5. Control frustrations and enjoy the trading challenge
6. Release any anger after the match and take time out to rationalise and rest

These 6 steps are the culmination of the past year of trading, incorporating all of the work and experience since I began this blog. I just have to keep grinding away until it becomes second nature, which much of it already is now. But it won't be something I'll be writing about on the blog. It wouldn't be interesting now anyway, as I'm no longer prone to days of chasing, daft straight bets, large reds and throwing down huge wedges in one go! It really is now just silly, small errors that arise out of pure impatience; such as slightly over-staking or jumping in a bit too soon or taking a price when it's a tad too low or staying in a point too long. Nothing interesting to write about! But when you are doing this every other game, it mounts up and wipes out all the good work.

So I will now only be writing about the positives hopefully, though I can't see many of them till the WTA returns in January. So in the mean time, I have a few things up my sleeve which I hope will entertain you over the next couple of months...............though rest assured, if I do bung my entire bank on Rayo Vallecano v Sporting Gijon Over 2.5 goals or lose the plot for 7 straight days following 3 Fernando Verdasco unforced errors at 0-40 (highly likely!), you will be the first to hear about it!

Easy Like Wednesday Morning

2011-11-02T14:06:00.006Z

I've noticed that over the past week or so, I've become even more tense and stressed than usual. I went to bed on Tuesday night and thought to myself 'This is no way to live!'. If I am to make trading a career, there is no way I want to put myself through the strain that I'm experiencing right now, every day. On a good day, I love trading; the challenge it brings, the freedom, the enjoyment of the sport and the excitement when it all comes together. But on a bad day, the frustration and the constant struggle and worry is starting to wear me down. I always start the day in a positive mood but I tend to get trapped inside the trading bubble and lose all perspective.

Being lost inside this 'bubble' is something I've written about in the past. It's so easy to get caught up in your own little world of flashing numbers when you are trading and on a bad day, this can often lead to a loss of rationality. I used to chase losses frequently and sometimes that chasing would go on for WEEKS, never mind days. These days, I will nearly always start each day afresh and so the only chasing I do tends to happen within the space of a few hours in one day. I think this is because I am so stuck inside the bubble that I don't allow time away from the PC. Rather than flitting quickly from one game to the next, not having a breather in between matches and remaining at the PC even when I'm not actively trading, I need to be taking more time away to re-set my mind.

It really helps to clear your head and maybe look at things in a better light. I had a comment a few weeks back from Mark of the 'Patient Speculation' blog, who said that maybe I was 'trying too hard'. At the time, I failed to make a distinction between 'trying too hard' and 'working too hard'. I don't think you can ever work too hard on your trading and I believe only those who do so will become successful. But I now realise that I was and still am trying too hard. By this I mean getting involved in too many matches, not taking enough time out, spending too much time at the PC, trying to force trades rather than waiting patiently for solid opportunities. The best trades are nearly always the simplest, I find, and they usually come about through a natural gut-instinct, not through frantically searching for anything remotely tradeable or throwing down your money speculatively. Basically, Mark was spot-on and last night, I had finally had enough.

I decided I could no longer keep trading this way and I need to make trading less stressful, more enjoyable and get out of the trading bubble at every possible moment. You have to have a certain level of intensity and focus when inside the bubble but it pays to step-away from that mindset every so often, as it is very draining. You can start the day with a losing trade and before you know it, 6 hours have passed and you've gradually gnawed away at your bank with a series of small red trades, without looking up from the screen. And most could have been avoided by simply taking a break. I need to relax more during the day, not get so tense and wound-up over every single point that goes against me and be a bit more patient. And that's my goal for the rest of the week - to take it easy!

In Sultan I Trust

2011-10-30T18:10:00.008Z

I've had a dreadful week. From Monday to Saturday, I just haven't been at the races. I probably needed a day or two off to refresh and relax but I was on a high from last week and there was no chance of that happening. I'm pleased to report that Sunday saw me back to my best and I finished the week with a good enough day to actually put me in profit for those 7 days. Which I'm quite astonished at really because almost every single game I've traded this week has fluorescent blue swiped across it, marking out the mistakes. There were even a load of notes in block capitals, which I only write when I'm seriously pissed off at my stupidity!

I'm glad that I didn't look at my P&L until after the final match again, as it made it a really nice surprise end to the week. What really pleased me most was the fact that despite 6 days riddled with daft errors, mostly due to lack of focus, I still managed to make some money. I've always maintained that if I can come out of a bad spell relatively unscathed, then I will become successful because I know I will make money in a good spell. But I really should have taken a day off on Tuesday, as soon as I realised I was struggling and it is something I won't hesitate to do in future.

Another pleasing aspect was that I have managed to sort out my strategy for the ATP. It worked beautifully in both finals on Sunday and I feel that I now have an approach for both men and women that I'm happy with and has great potential. With just a handful of WTA matches remaining this year, I will have to put all my energy into the ATP and so I'll know by the end of November just how much potential is there. I have no such worries about the WTA, which I've always been better at trading and I just wish it was January already so I could get stuck in and finally make some decent profit!

Overall, I feel I'm on the right track both psychologically and strategically. Until recently, I had often woken up in the morning and before I started trading I would think to myself 'I have no idea what I'm going to do today!'. I knew that anything could happen; from being in complete synch with the markets and winning every single trade to losing hundreds or putting my entire bank in jeopardy. I just didn't trust myself at all! Now, I honestly think that I can trust myself not to do anything that will wreck my bank. I haven't had a big loss in weeks (not since that Fernando Torres open-goal-miss game!) and have not put any sizeable chunk of my bank in danger since the Arsenal-Spurs derby at the start of October. In fact, I've not touched a football match since and my biggest tennis loss has been £50.

I think those matches really gave me a kick up the arse and forced me to do more and work harder at sorting out my mindset and a month on, I genuinely feel different; more in control. So my new goal for the forthcoming week is simply to remain focused - because I know if I am professional and at my sharpest, I trust that I will not be going backwards ever again.

So Near, Yet So Far

2011-10-28T12:53:00.007+01:00

Well, I definitely lost the psychological battle this week. All week I have been struggling to focus. I don't know why but it's probably a combination of factors. I was drained from last week, tired generally, have let my exercise routines slip and have not re-stocked my supplements which aid my concentration. Maybe I took my eye off the ball slightly too. Whatever the reason, I found my mind wandering too often and it affected my trading. This was how I felt for 2 whole months back in the summer and I do not want a return to those days. It's been a real let-down after the highs of last week - what was I saying about false dawns?

With the WTA coming to its finale this year, I have really struggled with the ATP, as it isn't as conducive to opportunities for my strategy. It's something I was hoping to work on during the final few weeks of the season but I'll need to be in a much better state of mind in order for that to happen. I have resigned myself to the fact I'm going to need at least another month before I get my bank up to a level where I can be considered 'comfortable' and there is not enough tennis remaining for that to happen. I'm really now just hoping to get everything prepared and ready for next season, so that I start in January with no remaining question marks hanging over anything.

There's always that feeling with me that I am so near, yet so far away from making trading successful. I'm closer than I have ever been before but something always seems to crop up and set me back just as I feel as though I'm getting somewhere. Mentally, I am much stronger now and feel that I am free from all of the rash things I have done in the past. So I'm not worried about blowing my bank or going backwards for weeks on end or chasing on football or seeing red mist for several hours. Those days are gone. It's just the little errors, the brief moments of lost concentration, the tiny lapses of patience, that get the better of me every now and then. It's that consistency in all aspects of trading that I can't quite seem to pull together for more than a few days. Hopefully, another few weeks of getting used to my new approach should make the difference.

So the final month will involve ironing out any lingering issues so that I'm 100% certain of what I'm doing for a final tilt in 2012. Because if next year doesn't work out, I will definitely be quitting.

The Psychological Battle

2011-10-25T13:29:00.001+01:00

With my strategy now pretty much settled, I will this week be concentrating mainly on the side of trading that has given me the biggest headache since day one - psychology. I have been guilty in the past of thinking that the changes required in my mindset would happen naturally, as I became more experienced and gained more knowledge. I'm sure that for some people, they will gain that mindset naturally with experience but for me (and I think for most traders), it will take a lot more than just blind faith. What I'm saying is, in order to attain the perfect trading mentality, most of us have to be prepared to do more to change. Reading up on trading psychology in financial trading books has given me great insight into what is required but knowing the theory is one thing, putting it into practice is another. That is why I have tried to come up with plans and practical tactics (Talking, FPD Plan, The Beach etc) to get my head sorted.

What I've found a real help over the past few weeks, is to concentrate on one specific problem and set it as a daily or weekly goal to improve. I did this when I started focusing on improving my frustration levels by 'going to the beach' and that is now steadily getting better. I also wanted to stop fixating on monetary targets, so I got rid of the option to see my balance on The Toy. I was shocked by how often my eyes kept flicking towards the section on-screen where my total bank used to be displayed! Every couple of minutes I'd be automatically looking at it, showing just how obsessed I must have been to get that figure to a certain amount. After 2 days, I stopped looking and now, I hardly even think about what my balance is. Last week, I didn't even know what my profit was until after the final game on Sunday! And it has definitely made it easier to focus on each individual match without being affected by what I feel I need to be making.

I've said it before and I'll say it again; getting the right mindset is the hardest thing about trading. Finding the right strategy and learning the sport and the markets is something that anyone can do given enough time. You can change your system and gather more information easily. But changing the way you think, usually requires a massive amount of work and I don't think most traders realise how important this is. Your mindset will not change over-night, you have to put as much effort into sorting your head out as you would do testing new strategies or sifting through statistics or analysing the market. But I know for certain that most people don't spend any time concentrating on the mind. So if you have problems with the psychology of trading, it's no good just sitting there and hoping it will magically improve of its own accord - it won't. And no amount of staring at the ladders will ever change that.

False Dawns

2011-10-23T16:32:00.001+01:00

No one is more guilty than me of thinking that things are finally about to turn and that I might just have cracked this trading lark. I've done it on several occasions this year: January, May, August and again this month. But now, I feel that it really is more than just another false dawn. The other 3 times, I had a totally different strategy that I struggled to make work consistently. This time, I'm a lot happier with my whole approach.

When I made the switch from my old way of trading to the new one, I underestimated how long it would take me to fully adapt to the changes. A good start can give you false impressions and I was guilty of believing that one good week and a couple of outstanding days, meant that I had finally made it. Wishful thinking. A difficult period has followed and I discovered a few cracks that needed filling in. This week, things have started to click into place. I have moulded my new approach into something that I can now say has real potential.

I have a strategy that finally suits my personality and has considerable room for growth in terms of the profit I can make in future. The new approach is much easier to implement than my old one. As a result, the old focus and patience issues that have plagued me throughout my trading life have now vanished, as I don't require the same high levels of intensity and concentration. My other major issue has always been discipline, especially when redding-up. This is now just a minor issue because my new approach does not use the large liabilities that I used to risk. My largest loss was £50 this week and every other loss was under £40. This is the first week in a long time where I have felt really in control and that I'm progressing quickly. It's only one week but the hard work I've put in sorting out my frustration levels and moulding a new strategy, is now bearing financial fruit - and I badly needed it to.

Is it just another false dawn? Too early to say but my trading has undoubtedly stepped up another level.